A reasonably quiet Sunday and Monday in the world o'politics, so this is a fairly quick edition of the Wrap. The Ras-a-palooza is still bearish on Charlie Crist, but bullish on Democrat Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut. Some bleak data in Nevada, and some tough numbers to interpret out of Pennsylvania. All this and more graces the Monday edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
IL-Sen: Giannoulias Goes On Offense, Invokes Joe Biden
Amid flagging polls and the insinuation that the family business is a drag on his campaign, Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias went on offense today, blasting GOP nominee Mark Kirk for relying on the negative news stories about the bank owned by the Giannoulias family in order to deflect from his own political liabilities and flip-floppy voting record. Invoking one of the legendary political putdowns of recent vintage (courtesy of Joe Biden, who eviscerated Republican Rudy Giuliani with it), Giannoulias tweaked Kirk by saying that every sentence uttered by the GOP hopeful consisted of "a noun, a verb, and Broadway Bank." Giannoulias also reiterated that he has absolutely no intentions of relinquishing his Democratic nomination.
NV-Sen: Lowden Leads Primary and General, According to New Poll
Mason-Dixon achieves an almost Rasmussen-esque level of prolific polling in the Silver State, releasing three polls over the weekend. Perhaps the most interesting one was in the U.S. Senate race, where they have established a clear GOP frontrunner: former state party chair Sue Lowden. Lowden has a solid lead over primary rival Danny Tarkanian (45-27), with the rest of the field languishing in the single digits. In the general election, with embattled Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian factored into the mix, Lowden still maintains a pretty solid lead over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (46-38), with Ashjian locking in 5% of the vote. With Tarkanian as the GOP nominee, Ashjian draws 11% of the vote. He is clearly is drawing from the GOP, though as the race between Reid and Tarkanian is a tie (39-39).
PA-Sen: Muhlenberg Poll Has Toomey Up, Lots of Upside for Sestak
When is having a bigger disadvantage a sign of a candidate's potential strength? Consider the data from this weekend's poll in Pennsylvania by Muhlenberg College. If Democratic Senator Arlen Specter is the nominee, he trails likely GOP standard bearer Patrick Toomey by seven points (47-40). Democratic primary rival Joe Sestak actually trails Toomey by a bit more, but his candidacy adds so many undecideds to the mix that it is hard not to argue that he has considerably more upside (Toomey leads Sestak by a 33-22 margin). This makes it clear that this is not necessarily an anti-Democratic electorate, but it is apparently an anti-Specter electorate.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-19: Special Election in South Florida Tomorrow
One seat in the House will be filled tomorrow, and whatever he might lack in political viability, Republican Ed Lynch is certainly not lacking in confidence. Lynch is talking like a guy primed to pull off a big upset in tomorrow's special election to replace former Rep. Robert Wexler, who left the House in January. Standing in Lynch's way is Democratic state Senator Ted Deutch, as well as a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage for the Democratic Party in the South Florida district.
HI-01: Hanabusa Keeps Locking In Support (In Defiance of DCCC?!)
This is awfully interesting--despite the apparent desire of the DCCC to clear the May special election in Hawaii's 1st district for former Rep. Ed Case (extending to the unusual release of some DCCC internal polling data), challenger Colleen Hanabusa keeps lining up official support. Today, it is from the AFL-CIO, which was clearly nonplussed by the labor record of Case when he served briefly in the House of Representatives. With 52,000 union members in the district, this is not a small amount of support.
NV-03: New Mason-Dixon Poll Shows Titus Trailing GOP Contender
New data from Mason Dixon paints a fairly bleak picture for Democrats in the suburban 3rd district in Nevada. They have Democratic freshman Rep. Dina Titus trailing Republican state legislator Joe Heck by five points (49-44). In Titus' defense, however, the poll comes on the heels of a seven-figure outside expenditure targeting her on health care. It is hard to imagine that the special interests opposing Titus will be able to keep up such a blistering pace of independent expenditures throughout the election cycle. Furthermore, Heck did not have a monster 1st quarter of fundraising, raising a respectable-but-not-dominant $160K.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NV-Gov: Sandoval Dominates Primary and General, According to MD
Mason-Dixon completes the Nevada polling trifecta, polling the Senate, the 3rd district, and the gubernatorial election. In the gov's race, M-D has former federal judge Brian Sandoval stretching out his lead over GOP incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons. Once a single-digit race, Sandoval has stretched his lead out to a fourteen-point margin (39-25), with North Las Vegas Mike Montandon at 7% of the vote. In the general election, Sandoval has a fifteen-point edge over presumptive Democratic nominee Rory Reid (50-35). If Gibbons somehow survives as the GOP nominee, Reid has a two-point lead (42-40) over the embattled GOP Governor.
NY-Gov: GOP/Teabagger Candidate Felled By E-Mail Scandal
Apparently, another candidate has failed to learn the lesson of Mark Foley--electronic communications are forever. Teabagger/Republican candidate Carl Paladino is being accused of forwarding racist and sexually explicit e-mail communications to colleagues. His campaign manager tried deflection, saying "Let he who has never opened a graphic image on their Internet cast the first stone." Of course, opening a graphic image, and forwarding it to all of your buddies, are slightly different things. Paladino is a recent entrant into the race, and the wealthy developer had still not definitively decided between a GOP bid or an Independent bid for Governor.
PA-Gov: Corbett Leads, But Undecided the Big Winner in New Poll
The Muhlenberg poll referenced earlier also looked at the gubernatorial race (PDF file), with strange results. Nearly half the electorate was undecided, with Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett leading with forty-something of the vote, and the Democrats somewhere in the teens. There was virtually no difference depending on the Democratic nominees: Dan Onorato comes the closest (42-18), with Jack Wagner (44-16) and Joe Hoeffel (45-11) slightly behind. In other Pennsylvania guv news, a key endorsement was landed today, though it's not a surprise who earned it: Pittsburgh Democratic Congressman Mike Doyle endorsed Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County Executive.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
After no new data on Saturday night or Sunday, it was pretty busy Monday morning in Ras-land, as they released a trio of polls to kick off the week. In a rare bit of Democratic momentum assessed by the Ras, they have Louisiana Democrat Charlie Melancon making a move on David Vitter. Other than that, the new nums from Rasmussen are...well...pretty much what you'd expect.
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Rob Simmons (R) 38%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 55%, Linda McMahon (R) 35%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 58%, Peter Schiff (R) 32%
FL-Sen (R): Marco Rubio 57%, Charlie Crist 28%
LA-Sen: Sen. David Vitter (R) 52%, Charlie Melancon (D) 36%