U.S. military leaders remain confident of their strategy in Afghanistan, but the Pentagon's 152-page report to Congress [pdf] released Wednesday paints a grim picture of the current situation. Much information in the unclassified report - about corruption, lack of loyalty to the national government, and the Taliban's growing operational sophistication - is not new. But the details included in the report illustrate forcefully the obstacles facing the administration's goal of stabilizing the country.
Among other things, the report points out that insurgents may never be wholly quelled in the southern reaches of the country. But their presence is wider than that long-time Taliban stronghold. The government of Hamid Karzai has strong support in only 29 of the 121 countrywide districts the U.S. high command considers crucial for the success of its efforts. Polls indicate there is only 24 percent popular support for him in the 121 districts, while Afghans sympathize with insurgents in 92 of them.
The report includes several color-coded maps showing changes since December in whether areas support the government, are neutral or support the insurgency. While insurgents have made some gains in the past few months, their resources are now under constant stress, there is more internal squabbling and several top operational chiefs have been arrested in Pakistan or killed in Afghanistan, the report states.
Some excerpts:
Although the overall security situation has stabilized somewhat since the end of 2009, violence during the current reporting period is still double that for the same period in 2008-2009. However, some individual islands of security exist in the sea of instability and insecurity. A new contiguous island of security is reported by RC-North in the districts surrounding Mazar-e-Sharif. Additionally, a small secure contiguous area exists within RC-South from the Ring Road to the Wesh-Chaman Border Control Point. The limits of security are significantly related to the presence of well-led and non-corrupt ANSF. In a significant number of cities, the secure zone is primarily the inner portion of the city center, with the outlying, more rural areas less secure due to insurgent presence. ...
Although widespread insurgent influence remains, a high percentage (84%) of Afghans feel that security is either “good” or “fair” in their mantaqa (area). Additionally, 44% of respondents rated security as “good.” While these numbers represent a decline compared to the previous quarter, they are still relatively good compared to historical trends. ...
Following the December 2009 announcements of the troop uplift, insurgent leaders directed their commanders to avoid large-scale confrontation with ISAF forces and to increase the use of IEDs. This reporting period has seen insurgent combatants adhere closely to their leaders’ intent with a 236% increase in IEDs noted across the country and a marked increase in stand-off tactics compared to the same period last year. ISAF forces have enjoyed some success in clearing
insurgents from their strongholds, particularly in central Helmand, but progress in introducing governance and development to these areas to move toward hold and build operations has been slow. The insurgents’ tactic of re-infiltrating the cleared areas to perform executions has played a role in dissuading locals from siding with the Afghan Government, which has complicated efforts to introduce effective governance. ...
In the justice sector, there has been little enduring progress despite significant investment toward reform, infrastructure, and training. Courts are understaffed and chronically corrupt. Corruption may be stemmed by ensuring that the salaries for judicial staff are adequate, that an adequate number of defense attorneys exist, and by implementing a case management system and court watch or court monitoring program. Security for judges and prosecutors continues to be a significant problem, especially in RC-South. Despite these challenges, 50% of Afghans said they would take a dispute to a state court, compared to 38% who would take a dispute to a local shura/jirga.
The report comes just two weeks before Karzai comes to Washington. That trip might have been canceled had the White House not ratcheted down criticisms of the Afghan president that spurred him to suggest he might join the Taliban if continuing foreign pressure on him to deal with corruption did not cease. That's no easy matter for a guy whose brother has been linked not only to bribery but also to the lucrative opium-poppy trade. While many analysts viewed Karzai's remark as hyperbole, it was illustrative of how tense the situation is between the White House and a leader whose very existence in office depends on Washington's continued backing over the next several years.
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At 1:45 p.m. EDT today in Washington, there will be an "teach-in" on Afghanistan: What Congress Must Do to End U.S. Wars and Help Secure a Peaceful Middle East. The event will take place in the Gold Room (2168) of the Rayburn House Office Building and feature Chris Hedges, Jeremy Scahill, David Swanson and Ann Wright.