I know there are some of you out there; I thought that the number-crunching I did regarding this election might interest you. In the extended copy is the text of an email I just sent out to the local Kerry group detailing the job we did in our little part of Pennsyl-tucky.
We had a great organization with great leaders, and fantastic downticket candidates. While only Tim Holden won, we made impressive gains in what one magazine called the most Republican area in the country. (yes, more so than Utah, or Oklahoma, or Texas!)
Because of the differences in the number of people that vote from year to
year, the best way to compare how the two parties did is to compare the
percentage that they increased their vote total over the previous election
cycle. (Below I am comparing 2004 to 2000 for the Presidential and State
Senate races, and 2004 compared to 2002 for the Federal and State
Representatives.)
We all know by now that John Kerry did a good job of turning out the vote,
increasing his nationwide total by almost 5 million people from what Al Gore
received, an increase of 9.7%. However, the Republicans did a better job,
getting 9 million new people to vote for George Bush, which was an increase
of 17.8%.
Looking just at Pennsylvania, Bush improved from his 2000 vote total a
whopping 20.8%. But Democrats did a much better job in PA than they did
nationwide, increasing Kerry's total by 16.1%.
What's really great is what we did in Central PA. In Cumberland County,
Bush's increase was 22.6%, but Kerry was right behind him with an increase
of 21.0%. In Perry County, Bush increased 24.2%; Kerry 21.3%. And in
Dauphin County we turned out over 10,000 new Democratic voters to outperform
the Republicans. Bush increased his vote total by 20.9%, while Kerry's
total was up 23.1%!
Even more encouraging were the downticket races. (Note that as these
compare the 2004 election to 2002, the percent increases are going to be
greater as much fewer people vote in off-years.) Tim Holden (PA-17) beat
Gekas by 3,800 votes in 2002. In 2004, he beat Paterno by over 54,000
votes! Holden increased his vote total by 329.0%; Paterno improved the
Republican total by only 212.3%.
In PA-18, Joe Pitts ran unopposed in 2002. In 2004, Lois Herr captured
34.4% of the vote in uber-conservative Lancaster County. That's almost
100,000 people from one of the most Conservative districts in the nation
voting for one of America's most Progressive Congressional candidate!
In State House races, we held our own over on the Republican-dominated West
Shore, which I think says a lot considering how well Republicans did
elsewhere. In the 199th, Christian Muniz increased his vote total by
357.9% over his 2002 showing; Republican William Gabig increased his 360.9%.
In the 87th, Marilyn Zilli increased the Democratic showing by 323.9%;
Republican Glen Grell upped the Republican total 326.0%. In the 88th,
incumbent Republican Jerry Nailor improved his vote total by 39.2%, while
our Margaret Stuski more than doubled that result, bettering the 2002
Democratic showing by 81.4%. And on the East Shore, Republican John Payne
ran unopposed in 2002. This year, Dan Holt took 40.5% of the votes.
Finally, in the 15th State Senate district, Jeff Piccola increased his vote
total from 2000 a measly, pathetic 6.0%. Eric Epstein increased the
Democratic showing many times that, up 38.7%. Message to Mr. Piccola: you
might not even have your home district locked up if you do run for Governor
in 2006.
Now the challenge is to (1) keep running good, solid Democratic candidates
for every seat from dog catcher to Mayor to Governor, and (2) keep improving
turnout for these Democratic candidates. 2005 will have races for City
and Borough Councils, Township Supervisors, and School Boards. With these
local elections, we can make a HUGE difference and elect fair-minded
individuals, and as an added bonus further develop and refine our voter
turnout operation for the 2006 elections (because I think we all agree that
Rick Santorum has overstayed his welcome by about 12 years.)