There is no justification for the surge in Afghanistan without political change and better living conditions for its people. It will cost lives, resources, and only prolongs the inevitable collapse of Karzai's corrupt and unpopular regime.
Good government is necessary for our strategy to work; Karzai will never provide good government. He has actively worked against reducing corruption, and his behavior is increasingly troubling. There are growing reports that Karzai is mentally unstable, prone to mood swings and erratic behavior. Reports claim that he either suffers from a form of post traumatic stress or drug addiction.
We need a dependable partner. Karzai's threat to join the Taliban demonstrates that he is not that individual - hyperbole or otherwise. The entire counter insurgency strategy is predicated on stability. Karzai's remarks undermine US efforts to secure the country. More importantly, it was our burning monk moment - an inflection point that should not be ignored.
President Obama's surge strategy seemed to be the best decision out of many bad decisions. Lawlessness in Afghanistan would be an unwelcome development. I am no longer certain that view is correct in light of recent events (as well as Pakistan's problems).
Propping up an unstable leader is not sound strategy. The Taliban will only gain popular support, and we will be repeating the same mistake that the Soviets made. If anything, the elements of the Taliban should be included in the political process. It's not our land - it's theirs.
The war is becoming more about enabling Karzai and his regime than about fighting extremists that plan attacks on America. There is nothing special about real estate in Afghanistan other than its past connection with 9/11. Terrorists operate out of Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Pakistan just as well as they can in Afghanistan.
President Obama should not escalate this war any further than our commanders deem necessary to start a structured withdrawal from the country. Should Karzai happen to lose power, so be it. All we can do is provide the conditions for a better future. The ball is in Karzai's court.