Bloomberg's reporting, early this evening, that Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke, speaking in Dallas today, expressed concern for the country's economic recovery, saying: "We are not getting the job gains we would like to get."
Bernanke, Dudley Say Recovery Hasn't Produced Major Job Gains
By Scott Lanman and Vivien Lou Chen
April 7 (Bloomberg) --
..."We are far from being out of the woods," Bernanke, 56, told the Dallas Regional Chamber. While the financial crisis has abated and economic growth will probably reduce unemployment over the next year, the U.S. faces hurdles including the lack of a sustained rebound in housing, a "troubled" commercial real estate market and "very weak" hiring, he said...
`Sustained Recovery'
"We have yet to see evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing market," Bernanke said. "Mortgage delinquencies for both subprime and prime loans continue to rise as do foreclosures. The commercial real estate sector remains troubled, which is a concern for communities and for banks holding commercial real estate loans."
Also, "cities and states are struggling to maintain essential services," he said.
Some of the economy's "toughest problems" are in the job market, Bernanke said. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the third gain in five months and the most in three years. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, close to a 26- year high.
"Hiring remains very weak," Bernanke said. "I am particularly concerned" that more than 40 percent of those without jobs have been out of work for at least six months, because such spells may erode skills and reduce the workers' income and employment prospects, the Fed chief said.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published their Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for February 2010.
Here's what Calculated Risk had to say about it...
BLS: Low Labor Turnover, Fewer Job Openings in February
by CalculatedRisk on 4/06/2010 10:00:00 AM
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
There were 2.7 million job openings on the last business day of February 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was little changed over the month at 2.1 percent. The hires rate (3.1 percent) and the separations rate (3.1 percent) were also little changed in February. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The CES (Current Employment Statistics, payroll survey) is for positions, the CPS (Current Population Survey, commonly called the household survey) is for people.
--SNIP--
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Notice that hires (blue) and separations (red) are pretty close each month. This is the level of turnover each month. When the blue line is above total separations, the economy is adding net jobs, when the blue line is below total separations, the economy is losing net jobs.
According to the JOLTS report, there were 4.96 3.961 million hires in February (SA), and 3.957 million total separations, or 4 thousand net jobs gained. The comparable CES report showed a loss of 14 thousand jobs in February (after revision).
Layoffs and discharges have declined sharply from early 2009 - and that is a good sign.
However, hiring has not picked up - and even though total separations were at a series low, there were few jobs added in February (according to JOLTS). This low turnover rate is another indicator of a weak labor market.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve published their consumer credit statistics for February, and they noted a decrease of $11 billion overall, in terms of combined types of consumer credit (revolving, auto, installment, but exe-mortgage) outstanding, while Bloomberg's median result from their most recent survey of economists had projected a significantly smaller decline ($500 million).