A new poll commissioned by the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune shows Governor Rick Perry (R) leading his Democratic challenger former Houston Mayor Bill White, 44%-35%.
At first glance, it doesn't seem Democrats are going to make a dent in the GOP's dominance in the Lone Star State. The poll shows GOP nominees leading in every statewide contest on the November ballot.
But the Tribune does see a potential problem for Perry, already the longest serving Texas governor in history as he pursues re-election.
Those numbers are identical to the results of a "fantasy race" between White and Perry in the February UT/TT poll, which was taken before Democratic and Republican primary voters selected the two men as their nominees. This time, 15 percent said they don't know yet who they'll vote for, and 7 percent said they'd prefer "someone else." That last finding could be consequential: Libertarians will choose their candidate for governor at a state convention next month, and that candidate or a write-in or some combination of the two could give those "someone else" voters a place to go.
Perry skillfully got in front of the anti-incumbent anger boiling over elsewhere in the country by tapping into a vein of Texas exceptionalism with his calls for Lone Star secession. He was one of the first elected officials to recognize the Tea Party's potential power over a year ago, but could the emergence of a libertarian alternative drain some critical support from his right flank? In the GOP primary Debra Medina emerged from out of nowhere to capture the energy of activists before flaming out in a Glenn Beck interview. (If you go on TV and make Beck look like the sane one, you know you've got electoral challenges, at the very least).
Despite topline numbers that appear to show a solidly pro-GOP year in Texas, the pollsters see the potential for volatility simmering beneath the surface.
The pollsters reprised a question from our February poll, asking voters how they’d vote in a congressional election if the Tea Party was organized and fielded a candidate. The Tea Party votes appear to come out of the Republican total, with 33 percent saying they'd back the Democrat, 23 percent preferring the Tea Party, 19 percent supporting the Republican, 26 percent choosing "don't know." The February poll result was similar in that the Tea Party vote seemed to come wholly from the GOP, but with one difference: There were more Republican votes than Tea Party votes in February, and now the Republicans are behind.
That — and the 6 or 7 percent of voters who chose "someone else" in specific head-to-head matchups — put an asterisk of sorts on what otherwise looks like a Republican advantage. Voters might not be happy with the party in power, but they're not exactly rushing into the GOP’s embrace.
Texans aren't all that enamored with their governor's job performance (42% approve, 39% disapprove, 16% neutral) but they really don't like how President Obama is handling his job.
Texans are clearer when it comes to Barack Obama: 35 percent say they approve of the president’s job performance, while 58 percent disapprove. And they're not wishy-washy about it. Only 19 percent strongly approve of Obama's performance, while 50 percent strongly disapprove.
This anti-Obama sentiment is perhaps Perry's most potent weapon. If he can successfully make his gubernatorial campaign a referendum on DC (which he worked to perfection against Kay Bailey Hutchison) and link Bill White to the national Democratic agenda, he will be waltzing into another term.