THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: Boxer in familiar territory--leading, but barely
It seems as if every Barbara Boxer poll since she first ran for the Senate in 1992 has been virtually identical: Boxer leading by single digits, but well under 50% of the vote. Welcome to the latest example: PPP polls the state, and finds Boxer leading all three GOP candidates, but all are within single digits. Carly Fiorina comes the closest (45-42), with Chuck DeVore (46-40) and Tom Campbell (47-40) not far behind.
CT-Sen: GOP better hold off on that "Unity Rally"
Mmm...there is some positively delicious intraparty knife-fighting going on in the ole Nutmeg State this week. Check out this niblet from former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons, who dropped out of the U.S. Senate race earlier in the week: when asked if almost certain GOP nominee Linda McMahon can defeat Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal, Simmons gives an unequivocal "No." What's more, he says that will tell the McMahon campaign that he is "preoccupied" if they ask him to campaign on their behalf. Richard Blumenthal, after the tumultuous nine days he has lived through, has to suddenly be feeling pretty darned content.
IL-Sen: White House sending surrogates to stump in Illinois
Given the travails that have confronted Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias as of late, this will no doubt be interpreted as a welcome sign for the embattled Democrat. Amid some whispers that the campaign is in serious trouble, the White House is lending some muscle in the form of surrogates that will be headed to the Land of Lincoln in June. Both Education Secretary Arne Duncan and deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina are planning to stump for Giannoulias over the next month.
IN-Sen: Indiana Dems getting after Coats on lobbyist Achilles' heel
Anyone wondering how the Indiana Democratic Party (as well as newly-minted Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth) were going to soften up GOP nominee Dan Coats can wonder no more. The head of the state party is demanding that Coats disclose the client base that emanated from his decade as a lobbyist, and stop hiding behind attorney-client privilege. In a classic "oops", Coats' spokesman claimed that he had never invoked that privilege, only to be almost immediately contradicted by an ABC interview which had Coats explicitly saying that he was tired of "Democratic distortions" on his lobbying past, but that...wait for it...attorney-client privilege prevented him from clearing the air. The IDP has also gotten after Coats on his lobbying past with this video. It is going to be hard for Coats to deflect this completely for the duration of the campaign.
THE U.S. HOUSE
NY-13: Bloggers denied the entertainment of a Fossella comeback
That odd crunch you heard this morning was the sound of a thousand bloggers bashing their heads against their keyboards. Tragically, we are not going to have Vito Fossella to kick around anymore. At least, not during the 2010 cycle. Despite getting the nod from the Staten Island GOP (despite no shortage of candidates, and amid much consternation), Fossella decided that he was "in a good place" as is and did not want to make a Congressional bid. Hey, thanks, Staten Island GOP leaders. Now no matter who earns the nomination to take on freshman Democrat Steve McMahon, they will clearly be identifiable as the second choice of the local GOP poohbahs.
OH-01: Right wing poll claims GOP lead over Dem incumbent
If you bought the FDL/SUSA polls from a few months back, then I suppose we should call this progress. At the time, you might recall, FDL/SUSA had Democratic freshman Steve Driehaus on life support, with former Congressman Steve Chabot (R) up by seventeen points. Now, at the end of May, even Chabot's own internals are not that rosy about his chances. That said, the poll still gives Chabot a robust lead, with a 53-39 advantage over the incumbent.
OH-16: Right wing poll claims GOP lead over (another) Dem incumbent
The right-wing U.S. Citizens Association (which made minor headlines a while back by filing suit in an attempt to block the newly-passed health care reform package) is based in Ohio, so it is no surprise to see them have a vested interest in the competitive battle in OH-16 between Democratic freshman John Boccieri and Republican challenger Jim Renacci. Given their political leanings, it is not a huge surprise to show them giving Renacci a sizeable edge (47-35).
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
MA-Gov: Patrick still holds double digit lead, according to Suffolk
The new Suffolk poll out of the Bay State confirms other polling in the past couple of months, teasing that Democratic Governor Deval Patrick might be in the midst of one of the more impressive electoral resurrections in recent history. According to Suffolk, Patrick holds a double-digit edge over Republican Charlie Baker (42-29), with Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill well back at 14%. Suffolk is also one of the first to test Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who sits at 8%. What this means is that Baker is going to have to steal some votes from Stein or Cahill, because there are not enough undecided voters remaining to make up the difference.
SC-Gov: Alleged philanderer paces GOP field (with a big caveat)
This has been an interesting week, to say the least, for state legislator and GOP frontrunner Nikki Haley. In the midst of a growing sex scandal (a local GOP blogger confirmed earlier in the week that he had an illicit affair with Haley), polls showed that she headed into the scandal with a decisive lead both in the primary and general elections. The folks at PPP confirmed that recent trend with a poll conducted before the scandal broke. The poll found Haley up nearly twenty points over the balance of the GOP field in the primary, and also showed her leading 9-10 points over Democratic frontrunners Vincent Sheheen and Jim Rex. The balance of the GOP field does not do as well in the general election against the pair of Democrats, implying a potentially competitive race in November. For what it is worth, PPP also polled the Democratic primary, and found Sheheen modestly ahead of Rex (36-30) in somewhat of an upset (Rex is the only Democratic statewide elected official in South Carolina).
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
With everyone else showing Steve Poizner circling the drain in California, leave the crew at Ras to posit that he is the last, best hope for Republicans to hold onto this governorship. They also follow their...ahem...curious poll showing Mike Beebe in some semblance of vulnerability by doing the same with Oregon's Ron Wyden.
If there is one "conventional" poll out of the pile, it is the poll showing the three-way battle for Minnesota Governor being very, very close (although, of course, the Republican is leading).
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 43%, Steve Poizner (R) 42%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
MN-Gov: Tom Emmer (R) 37%, Mark Dayton (D) 35%, Tom Horner (I) 12%
MN-Gov: Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Margaret Anderson-Kelliher (D) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 11%
MN-Gov: Tom Emmer (R) 37%, Matt Etenza (D) 34%, Tom Horner (I) 12%
OR-Sen: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) 51%, Jim Huffman (R) 38%