of course, we will have no idea what if anything Dean's appearance on PrimeTime and Letterman means until we see polling data taken today, and I expect that we will see some results. I will make the following obersvtaions:
- Judy came across very well in the interview - I suppose some will be put off stylistically, but I think that appearance will strike many, especially women, as positive
- That appearance may actually move some women - if you listened to Kerry a lot of his expression in the debate was of the variety "I'm more alpha male than George Bush" - while women([of which I am not one] are concerned with security issues, of course, they tend to be a little put off by pugnacity, particularly if they think it might lead more directly to conflict. From a tone standpoint I think Dean may have come of somewaht better than kerry
- on Edwards, two notes - he's a lawyer who couldn't accurately describe the contents of the Defense of marraige Act at a time when the president has raised it as an issue - that at elast to me came across as either remarkably unprepared or else as overly slick feigning of ignorance to avoid taking a position. Also, is statement on not supporting privatizing of social security is inaccuratet - by half an hour after the debate which is when i saw it) Drudge already had up a reference to the contradictory statement. As a person whose definition is as a 'trial lawyer" Edwards needs to be careful about doing thigns like that.
- Out side of NH (and perhaps parts of VT and MA), far more people will have seen Letterman and Primetime than saw the debate. I presume in VT that the debate was carreid on WMUR live -- if, after the 15 mjinutes which Fox used at thene d for Barnes and Kondracke, WMUR did come on live with PrimeTime, then even in NH the overall win has to be for Dean - he would have been seen as sopmewhat self-deprecating in the debate, but capable of passions when appropriate, and reasonably gracious to his opponents. When followed by the interivdew, his humanity, intelligence, raw honesty all came through. Given that many in NH already had a pretty positive image of him, and given the independence of NH voters, he may draw enough back [reminding them of why they liked him} and enough from undecided and independents to at least be a close second at the end of it, and possibly even, depending upon turnout, eke out a vcitory, althoughw ere I being asked right now, I wold say my gut reaction is that he may have, on the whole yesterday, done just enough to solidify second place and close the gap, but not to win.. still that would keep him quite alive going into February 3.