Large amounts of resources are
now thought to be present in Afghanistan. This has led to a lot of speculation, some of which is downright hysterical. Here are some things that must be considered before you start thinking you know what all that gold, copper, and lithium can do to and for Afghanistan
First off, assumptions that the U.S. will now claim these resources are premature and not supported by the realities of the situation. Right now China has the most invested in Afghanistan's mining industry, and it's a
fledgling industry. It will be
years before anyone can even begin tapping these resources, and then you have to consider the rest of the logistics. To say that Afghanistan's railroad system is underdeveloped in an understatement. Oh, and did you know that many of the mountainous portions of the country are not exactly secure?
Second, assumptions that the U.S. will now stay forever are premature and not supported by the realities of the situation. As has been mentioned above, it will be awhile before these resources can be tapped. The U.S. date for beginning withdrawal is a year away. Do you really think they're going to push it back from a one-year surge to a six-year surge? So CHINA, more than any international player, can profit?
Third, assumptions that this is good for Afghanistan are premature and not supported by the realities of the situation. I'm sure there are many in Africa who can attest to the curse of minerals. This could lead to an even more unbridled orgy of corruption, and given China's mining practices could lead to a nightmare for Afghans living and working in these locations.
Fourth, assumptions that this is bad for Afghanistan are premature and not supported by the realities of the situation. This could provide a huge number of jobs which, in the long run, is a good thing.
Fifth, assumptions that this will lead to Afghanistan "getting off opium" are unfortunately misguided.
Ultimately, this is huge news. It's just too early to use it to many any clear predictions. What is obvious is that, despite the potential for abuse by Karzai and the government in Kabul, these resources should be nationalized.(China will probably object) But this opens the door to a lot of questions; how much will the mineral-rich provinces benefit and how much will the others be left out in the cold? Which provinces, and which ethnic belts those provinces lay in, are these resources present?