For many weeks I've been wondering where the passion is from Kossacks, from the President, and from myself is with regard to pushing for a comprehensive climate bill to be passed this year. The intensity around this issue stands in stark contrast to the energy around healthcare reform. I, and many Kossacks, followed intently the twists and turns of the healthcare debate, and many of us made many angry and supportive phone calls when different congressional players suggested different avenues of going about (or squashing) HCR. Also, there were huge and violent debates about the issue (remember last summer?), and as usual, lots of lies from industry and conservatives.
Below the fold I have listed a few guesses as to why things are quieter on the climate bill side of things, and why that's not necessarily a bad thing. I've also detailed the reasons why we will pass a damned climate bill this year!
First off, here's a few guesses as to why the passion is still a bit cool on climate change right now, even though it looks like a new 12 month temperature record has just been set. I think all apply to some degree, but that's not a bad thing, because many apply to the "do-nothing" side as well. Yes, many of these are intuitive/obvious, but I think it's important to have them out there.
- Many are still exhausted and/or bitter from the HCR debate
- People believe the conventional wisdom that there's no hope of any kind of carbon pricing or cap passing.
- Climate change is less personal than HCR for many.
- There are fewer, and less mature, policy thinktanks, and in general wonky people speaking out about climate change, given that we haven't been working on it for nearly as long as HCR. In 2030 that won't be the case, but of course, that'd be too late.
- There's not as much process to talk about yet. Right now, the Senate is talking about "energy only bills" such as Lugar's, and the fate of the Kerry-Lieberman-Graham American Power Act is shaky. There is not a coherent discernible plan, in other words.
- It's much more fun, and distracting, and up the D-Kos alley to think about the 2010 elections, and hope springs eternal for more progressive candidates to bring progress to congress.
- We've just come out of what really was a relatively cold winter in the U.S., thanks to a strong Arctic Oscillation, or possibly wind shifts due to how hot the Arctic is. Canada had it's warmest winter on record, but not us! I don't think any Kossack believes a cold winter locally means anything, but I do think, subconsciously, it blunts the emotional intensity we all have about climate change.
As I said, the intensity is low on both sides of this issue, but because we are on the right side of this issue, I think the intensity is starting to come around on our side first, especially as many people who care deeply about the fate of our country and planet realize this summer (given expected Repub gains in the Fall) may be the only chance for quite a few years to get anything done. Remember when healthcare reform was all but dead (several times per the punditocracy at least)? Why didn't it die? Because a hell of a lot of people believed in it. The same dynamic is starting to become visible in climate change. Right now people are starting to despair a bit, but they are also getting angry, just like in the HCR debate, because the underlying dynamic is that a hell of a lot of Democrats want to get this done.
That's a big reason why I believe we will pass this damned bill, here are several more:
The Oil Spill: I still very much believe there is a good chance for a spill to bill pivot. This spill will be ongoing all summer, and the cleanup much longer, and despite tinny-sounding claims to the contrary from Sarah Palin et al, dependency on oil will never sound dirtier than it does right now, whether Obama makes a direct pivot or not. Recent polling has suggested that people are now more likely to favor charging energy companies for dirty energy they produce.
Barack Obama: Sometimes I feel like Merlin in that epic seen near the end of Top Gun. Remember when Maverick disengaged from the fight with all those "MiG 28s"? Maverick was just dazed and mumbling "talk to me Goose", and you can here Merlin in the background yelling "get, in there, what the hell are you doing? Ice won't last down there alone! MAVERICK!". Anyway, I still think the Tuesday night speech was more about the spill, and about reassuring the residents there, etc... Supposedly a grand climate change speech is still to come, so I'm not completely counting Obama out of the fight.
Some Republicans might care: I know it sounds crazy, but while SC Repub Lindsay Graham has cracked under crazy-people pressure, others might not. Do you know which state had unseasonably hot winter, while the rest of the US was cool? That would be Maine. Susan Collins has already shown she is willing to entertain the idea of a cap on carbon emissions in her Cantwell-Collins proposal, and even if Kerry-Lieberman is scrapped:
Another option is for an energy bill, there is a bipartisan energy bill with Senators Bingaman and Murkowski, to be brought to the Senate floor, and we could add the CLEAR Act to that bill, that might be a way to proceed as well.
Now the Cantwell-Collins proposal would need a lot of work, but would be a starting place for what is essential to any successful bill, a cap on carbon.
Olympia Snowe has also at least said as of last week "I continue to believe that the science demonstrates that carbon emissions are a human endangerment."
People are already talking about the weather: I was in Glenwood Springs, CO, last weekend, and overheard a man at a diner discussing how his fields were underwater from rapid snow melt for the first time in his memory, and that people are starting to wonder whether or not knowing where your property sits on the 100 year flood maps was good enough anymore. Here in Salt Lake City, people had to sandbag Little Cottonwood creek, as rapid snow melt from this unseasonably hot June weather played havoc. Of course these floods are occurring out West because it's HOT. Many temperature records across the US have already been set this spring. Even if it's silly, it appears that public opinion on climate change is moved by temperature anomalies, to the tune of about 1 percentage point per 3 degrees above normal temperature. Forecasters are suggesting that many, if not all,parts of the US will have above average summer temperatures.
Unfortunately for many people, and tragically for many others, climate will also be on the national mind for more dramatic reasons this year, with massive rainfall-induced floods already taking place in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, and Nebraska, and with a very active hurricane season unfortunately likely to occur.
Lame duck session: I actually think this could help a bit. If a bill with a carbon cap gets out of the Senate by election season, and gets to conference, my preference would be for the bill to come out of committee after the election. That way, both exiting and victorious congresspeople will not have the subconscious(or conscious) fear of the electorate to cloud their vision. Knowing that at least a few republicans believe global warming is a threat, it might be worth a couple of votes. However I find it hard to believe a carbon cap could be added in conference committee, so the apparent current approach of "energy only" followed by improvement in conference committee, does seem lame. We should get a cap in the Senate version and be proud of it! The Kerry-Lieberman bill has only minimal cost to your average family, and a strong likelihood of averting what would otherwise be catastrophic warming, be proud of it!
I learned a lot while volunteering for the Obama 08 campaign: I remember with a shock the first time he said "clean coal", I couldn't believe it. But, because I thought he was still the best option of the candidates, I still knocked on doors and made phone calls. I think disappointment with Obama can lead to cynicism, but the lesson I took from the campaign was that if you want something to happen, it actually helps to get off the couch.
To that end, below is a list of people I'm going to be calling/emailing/faxing, asking for a carbon cap this summer, and why. Since the Senate is the issue, it makes it pretty easy, compared to the peak of the HCR drama. I prefer to call any Senator who I think needs a message, even if I don't live in their state. For one, it makes me feel better to at least speak my mind, and for two, they usually don't even ask what state your from, and I abide by DADT here. Even better to get on their websites and call each of the state offices, then I feel like I was slightly louder.
Olympia Snowe (Phone: (202) 224-5344 · Toll Free in Maine: (800) 432-1599 · Fax: (202) 224-1946)
Susan Collins (Phone: (202) 224-2523 Fax: (202) 224-2693)
(See above, also Collins is listed here as attending a meeting next week with the Pres to discuss legislation)
Lindsey Graham (Phone (202) 224-5972)
(Will also be at the meeting - since he appears to be a cracked and broken and perhaps insane man right now, I'm going to leave soothing and encouraging messages, rather than my usual vitriol)
Richard Lugar(Phone (202) 224-4814)
(Acknowledges climate change, needs to be convinced that meaningful reform requires a carbon cap, but he did put forward a reasonable energy bill that, as opposed to most, will do some carbon reducing). He'll also be meeting with President Obama next week.
Dianne Feinstein (Phone: (202) 224-3841 Fax: (202) 228-3954)
Thinks chances of passing will be "better next year"!
Jay Rockefeller (Phone: 202-224-6472)
"There's not a great call for it in the Democratic caucus."
Byron Dorgan (Phone: Phone (202) 224-2551 Fax (202) 224-1193)
Retiring this year but still won't fight for what needs to be done, and brings out, just as in HCR, the "there's not 60 votes" crap. How about YOUR vote?
Finally, no harm in calling the White House (Phone 202-456-1111).
I plan on repeating to President Obama that we need a push for a carbon cap, and we need it now, not at some hoped for lame duck sneaky conference committee. Tell him to be proud of espousing what is right for the country!
Will calling all these people do any good? I don't know, but I guarantee it feels a hell of a lot better than bitching on the KOS.
For any kind of carbon pricing, if not now, when? I, for one, will not look back on this summer and tell myself: "I didn't even try during the last, best chance for a climate bill."
Peace and blessings,A4Q