As the passing of Senator Byrd and the Kagan hearings dominate the political conversation, news on the polling front is quite silent as we kick off this first full week of Summer. However, the week does open up with several campaign headlines, including a continuation of some of that seriously fun intrasquad brawling in the state of Iowa.
In polling news: even the House of Ras says that coronating Nikki Haley in South Carolina might be at least a tiny bit premature.
All that, and quite a bit more, can be found here on the Monday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: CoC endorsement sign of continued GOP rift?
In the weekend edition of the Wrap this past Saturday, it was noted that the Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina had decided to go with the Democrat in the race, a fairly clear snub of Nikki Haley, a darling of the social conservative crowd in the Palmetto State. Well, the divide between economic conservatives and social activists has flared up anew, this time in Colorado, where the CoC has cast its lot with former Lt. Governor Jane Norton over conservative firebrand Ken Buck. Bear in mind, of course, that the Chamber has been rebuffed in a couple of high-profile primaries, as two of their favored GOP candidates (Trey Grayson in Kentucky and Tim Bridgewater in Utah) were defeated.
KS-Sen: New primary polls put Moran and Johnston out in front
In spite of Sarah Palin's Facebook endorsement, Congressman Todd Tiahrt heads into the final stretch before his big Senate primary as a distinct underdog to House colleague Jerry Moran. New numbers out today from SurveyUSA show that Moran enjoys a 53-33 lead over Tiahrt in the Republican primary to replace GOP Senator Sam Brownback (who is, of course, running for Governor). The Democratic field is considerably more wide-open, which is the expected by-product of a field of virtual unknowns. College professor Lisa Johnston leads the field with 24% of the vote, with former journalist Charles Schollenberger trailing at 16%. Several other Democrats fall several points afield of the two front-runners.
SC-Sen: Greene's legal/political perils not quite over yet
For those who thought that Alvin Greene's ballot line for November was secure once the challenge to his nomination was denied, new developments have cast fresh doubt on the candidacy of this virtual unknown. Word emerged Monday that Greene is now under investigation by law enforcement, and that said investigation might have the authority to uncover one of the great mysteries of Campaign 2010: how did Alvin Greene cough up five figures to run for the Senate? At issue is the fact that when Greene was brought up on the now famous indecency charges pending against him, he was appointed a defender because he claimed to be without resources to provide his own counsel. The fact that he found ten grand less than six months later has raised the eyebrows of law enforcement, who will (thanks to a new law) be able to access his financial records in order to ascertain the answer to that question. Stay tuned.
WV-Sen: No election till 2012, Byrd successors mulled
As expected by virtually everyone, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant announced late this afternoon that there would be no special election this Fall to fill the seat of longtime Senator Robert Byrd, who passed away this morning at age 92. Instead, an appointment will be made by Governor Joe Manchin until November of 2012, which would have been the end of Byrd's term in any event. Manchin clarified earlier today that he would not name himself to the post. Speculation now swirls around the likelihood that someone will be named to serve as a caretaker until 2012, with several names already in the mix.
THE U.S. HOUSE
MA-10: Perry claims lead in GOP primary, according to internal poll
State legislator Jeff Perry is out with new numbers today, conducted for his campaign by Public Opinion Strategies, showing him with a sizeable edge over former state treasurer Joe Malone. The poll claims a 41-25 lead for Perry over Malone in the GOP primary in what well could be a very competitive open-seat general election in this, among the most GOP-friendly districts in the Bay State. A pair of eyebrow raisers: the poll claims a favorability split for Perry of 44/1 (!), and claims that Scott Brown (who has endorsed Perry in this race), has a 90% favorable rating among district Republicans.
TN-08: Another day, another unforced error from Volunteer State GOPer
Somewhere, likely Democratic nominee Roy Herron is laughing his ass off. One week after well-heeled potential GOP challenger Stephen Fincher was caught voting in the Democratic primary earlier this year, fellow Republican George Flinn got himself into even sillier political trauma. He gave an honest, but somewhat absurd, rationale for his decision to run for office away from his actual home: he said he couldn't win in the district where he lives. While that is undeniably true (Flinn lives in the heavily-Democratic 9th district, based in Memphis), it is an unusual admission of political expediency coming from a candidate for office.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Active open to the week in Whitman-Brown matchup
From the Golden State comes a mini-cornucopia of news stories surrounding the very competitive open seat race for Governor between Democratic Attorney General Jerry Brown and Republican gazillionaire Meg Whitman. While Brown continues to conserve resources, the independent expenditure group Working Families for Jerry Brown is back on the air, nailing Whitman in a new ad as an aloof corporate type looking to protect her own. Whitman is also taking flak from within her own party, albeit by name. Governor Schwarzenegger ripped the idea of eliminating 40,000 state employees as "bogus talk", but did not mention explicitly that it was Whitman who had suggested the cuts. Finally, in a fairly overt attempt to poke at Whitman, who has been dinged (legitimately) for being loath to deal with unscripted situations (see here for an illustration), the Brown campaign has accepted invitations to nearly one dozen different debates and public forums. To date, team Whitman has agreed to appear at just one of those ten events.
FL-Gov: Chiles brushes off enmity of Democrats in Indie Gov Bid
This should come as absolutely no surprise, but Florida Democrats are taking the candidacy of Democrat-turned-Independent Lawton "Bud" Chiles III seriously, and they are not taking it particularly well. Chiles, however, is shaking off such entreaties, saying that this outsider-friendly cycle will play into his hands, and work to the detriment of major-party candidates. Democrats, with some justification, fear that the Chiles brand name (established by the current candidate's run as Senator and Governor of Florida) will split the Democratic vote in a tight race with the eventual GOP nominee.
GA-Gov: Potential conservative spoiler backs off of Indie bid
While the Indie bid of former Democrat Bud Chiles continues unabated in Florida, Republicans have been spared a similar circumstance in the Peach State. Georgia conservative Ray Boyd, who went from a brief sojourn in the GOP primary to a planned well-financed Independent bid for Governor, has now decided to stand down altogether. Polls have shown the open-seat gubernatorial election in Georgia to be close, and likely Democratic nominee Roy Barnes could have benefitted from some split conservative votes in the state. Boyd had dropped seven figures into a campaign account, and made all the signs of an imminent bid. But the state's fairly tough signature threshold for Independent candidacies (50,000 signatures from registered voters) proved too difficult to overcome.
IA-Gov: Branstad sees fire, quenches with gasoline
After the rather antagonistic vibe at the state convention in the Hawkeye State this weekend, you might have expected GOP gubernatorial nominee Terry Branstad to be a bit chastened. After all, his handpicked LG nominee barely survived the convention, ekeing out a victory with just 56% of the vote over vanquished gubernatorial nominee Bob Vander Plaats. Today, however, Branstad took a far less conciliatory tone than the "we're all on the same team, guys" rhetoric from the weekend:
"Remember that the person who opposed [Reynolds] for the nomination has been running here for 10 years, has probably spoken to everyone in that room 10 times," Branstad said. "We took the risk of going to the most conservative base of our party, and we won it fair and square, just like I won the primary fair and square."
Branstad's aggressiveness is striking, in particular because Vander Plaats, who captured the hearts of the state's rightward base during the 2010 GOP primary season, has neither endorsed Branstad nor ruled out running against him in a third-party bid.
MA-Gov: New Boston Globe poll gives Patrick double-digit seven-point lead
This poll can, depending on interpretation, be seen as good news or bad news for Massachusetts' Democratic Governor, Deval Patrick. New numbers out over the weekend from the Boston Globe give Deval Patrick a seven-point lead in his re-election bid. Patrick scores 38% of the vote, with GOP nominee Charlie Baker back at 31% and Independent Tim Cahill well back at 9%. The bad news for Patrick: the likelihood of a split anti-incumbent vote has greatly diminished, as the GOP's attempts to eliminate Cahill seem to have borne fruit. However, it is also worth noting that Patrick comes closer to the combined Cahill/Baker vote than he has in virtually any polls to date, which is a sign that Cahill's descent has not necessarily led to an open door to victory for the GOP challenger.
TX-Gov: Texas Greens appeal court ruling on 2010 candidacies
This was probably to be expected, but it is also now official--the Green Party of Texas has appealed last week's lower court ruling knocking them off the 2010 ballot. You'll recall that the Greens were dropped from the ballot because it was concluded that the signature funding drive put together by prominent GOP backers (whose identities remain largely unknown) was viewed as tantamount to a half-million dollar in-kind contribution to the Green Party. The Greens have to get a quick thumbs-up from the State Supreme Court, however--the deadline to turn in petitions is this Friday.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Rasmussen kicks off the week very quietly, but with a poll that should draw a lot of attention (indeed, it already has). They have nouveau Republican Party national darling Nikki Haley leading Democrat Vincent Sheheen by only a dozen points in the South Carolina governor's race. That nearly halves the twenty-plus point lead Haley enjoyed just a couple of weeks ago. Ras also hits the Beehive State, where they see no worries on the horizon for the state's Republican Governor.
SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) 52%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 40%
UT-Gov: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 58%, Peter Corroon (D) 31%