While Rasmussen is ping-ponging all over the damned map, other pollsters are looking at contests in places like California, Iowa and Michigan.
Meanwhile, the textbook definition of a Conserva-Dem gets primaried from the left, and Parker Griffith wants you to know that he wouldn't change a thing.
All that (and more!) on the Thursday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: Tracking poll gives Fiorina comfortable lead over Campbell
A new tracking poll out today from Capitol Weekly and Probolsky Research shows that the battle to face Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer is now essentially a two candidate race. And, quite possibly, a one-candidate race. With leaners included, Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell 40-25. Teabagger favorite Chuck DeVore is a distant third, holding down just less than 13% of the vote.
With the campaign in its final week, the two leading candidates are taking different approaches that are, to say the least, telling. Carly Fiorina is getting aggressive towards Barbara Boxer, a clear indication that she thinks she has the nomination locked down. Tom Campbell, meanwhile, is appealing to moderate Republicans and Independents. Remember, California is a "modified closed" primary state, which means that voters who do not declare a party preference--roughly 20% of the state's voters--have the option of voting in either primary. Campbell is touting his electability in a new ad, just one day after his campaign hinted that they were going to go dark.
CO-Sen: WH and Romanoff trade shots in job offer fracas
I tend to agree with my colleague DavidNYC in thinking this is the most ridiculous non-story of the campaign cycle, but the White House is getting after Colorado Senate contender Andrew Romanoff with some serious rapid response. Romanoff charged earlier in the week that the White House offered him a job, presumably to entice Romanoff out of a Senate primary against appointed incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet. The White House fired back today, saying that Romanoff had sought a gig in the White House months before the alleged offer took place.
IA-Sen: Conlin leads primary, competitive against Grassley
Democratic Roxanne Conlin has a big edge in the primary next week, and is within single digits of longtime GOP incumbent Chuck Grassley, according to a new poll for KCCI-TV. Conlin has 48% in the Democratic primary, leading both Bob Krause (13%) and Tom Fiegen (12%). In a general election matchup with Grassley, the Republican only holds a 50-42 lead.
NY-Sen: GOP nod in Senate race also comes down to primary
A day after the GOP failed to settle its battle for the gubernatorial nomination (as businessman Carl Paladino decided to press on with a petition effort after losing badly at the convention), the NY GOP convention failed to settle the Senate race, either. David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman nearly deadlocked in delegate support, and will press on to a primary. The only question is whether former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, who fell short of the threshold to make the ballot, will petition his way onto the ballot and make it a three-way fight. The winner takes on incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-05: Parker Griffith can lose (but he's cool with it, evidently)
On the heels of his landslide defeat in his first election as a Republican, soon-to-be former Congressman Parker Griffith is talking about his defeat on Tuesday at the hands of Mo Brooks. Griffith was magnanimous in defeat, promising to vote for Brooks in November. About his ill-fated party switch, Griffith oddly characterized it as "politically, a mistake, but on principle, it was the right thing to do."
CA-36: Dueling internals in West Coast Dem tilt
Depending on whose pollster you are buying stock in, the primary rematch between longtime South Bay-area incumbent Jane Harman and challenger Marcy Winograd is either competitive or...well...not so much. Harman's pollster released numbers showing that Harman leads Winograd by a decidedly comfortable 58-17 margin. Winograd's pollster says Harman is only at 43%, but does not divulge where their client's numbers reside, which would certainly be a helpful detail. Harman and Winograd first squared off in 2006, when Harman won with 62% of the vote.
OK-02: Boren's right-wing affinity draws him a primary challenger
Potentially intriguing news out of the blood-red state of Oklahoma. The state's lone Democratic Congressman, Dan Boren, has routinely been the most conservative member of the Democratic delegation to Congress. That title has earned him a primary. His primary challenger is legitimate: state senator Jim Wilson is the opposition, and he is coming after Boren from the left.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Whitman pounding Poizner, according to new poll
A new tracking poll from Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research confirms what most other pollsters have shown over the past few weeks: Meg Whitman has practically sewn up the GOP nod. With leaners included, Whitman holds a 54-24 lead over Poizner. Poizner is still getting after it on the air, but he is still getting drowned out by Whitman, who has to be speeding past the $75 million for this primary in the very near future.
IA-Gov: Two polls agree--Culver faces uphill climb for re-election
Iowa's incumbent Democratic Governor, Chet Culver, has flagging approval numbers that are severely impeding his chances for re-election, according to a new survey from PPP. The new PPP poll has Culver trailing former GOP Governor Terry Branstad by a 52-37 margin. Of course, the primary poll put out by PPP suggested that Branstad might not be a lock for the GOP nod. The bad news: conservative GOPer Bob Vander Platts now also leads Culver, albeit by a greatly reduced margin (43-38).
Another poll, this one for KCCI-TV, showed Branstad up over Culver by a more restrained margin (51-42). The better news for Culver: he holds leads over both Bob Vander Platts (43-42) and Rod Roberts (45-35). In the GOP primary, this poll confirms PPP's, showing that Branstad has not locked down the GOP primary. He leads with 44% of the vote, while Vander Platts holds down 29% of the vote.
MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA poll shows a decidedly cloudy picture for Dems
A day after PPP gave an assessment of the Michigan Governor's race that could give the Democrats a modicum of hope, local pollsters EPIC-MRA follow up with a poll that is a deluge of cold water. In the general election, not a single scenario gets Democrats any closer than a nine-point loss. And if businessman Rick Snyder is the man for the GOP, the Democrats get no closer than 19 points. In the primaries, the current leaders (albeit modestly) are state House Speaker Andy Dillon for the Democrats, and Congressman Peter Hoekstra for the GOP.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
In truth, it is hard to add a better commentary about the goings-on at Rasmussen than the one provided here earlier today by Markos. They are on the brink of becoming a self-parody at this point.
Lost in the drama over their huge reversal in Connecticut is a very interesting poll out of Missouri, where the generic advantage that Republican Roy Blunt seems to have enjoyed since last year has all but disappeared. Soem corroborating evidence to this poll will hopefully be forthcoming in the next few weeks.
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 44%, Tom Foley (R) 35%
CT-Gov: Tom Foley (R) 38%, Ned Lamont (D) 36%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 42%, Michael Fedele (R) 28%
CT-Gov: Ned Lamont (D) 43%, Michael Fedele (R) 34%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%, Linda McMahon (R) 33%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 45%, Robin Carnahan (D) 44%