PPP. 8/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (6/13 results)
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 37 (31)
Mark Kirk (R) 35 (30)
LeAlan Jones (G) 9 (14)
Note, a Libertarian candidate has just qualified for the ballot, giving disaffected Republicans who think Kirk is a RINO another ballot option.
The previous PPP poll used registered voters, so tightening the screen didn't really change the underlying trend -- that this is a tight race, and that both candidates are thoroughly unloved. Guannoulias favorability rating is at 26/42, while Kirk is at 26/34. Furthermore, just 51 percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias, while just 49 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk (hence the relevance of the libertarian candidate on the ballot).
PPP's Tom Jensen:
These polls results are premised on an extremely depressed Democratic electorate. Those surveyed report having voted for Barack Obama by only 9 points, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state in 2008. That's a dropoff even worse than what Democrats saw in Virginia last year and the fact that Kirk is behind even when that's the case does not bode well if Democratic interest in this election gets any better over the next three months. And it's not as if Illinois voters just don't know Giannoulias yet- they know him and they know they don't like him and they still give him a small lead.
In Kirk Republicans got the candidate they wanted in this race. But it looks more and more like they might have wanted the wrong candidate. There's no way with everything that's happened to Giannoulias since the last couple weeks before the primary that he should be ahead in this race. But he's hanging on...
The latest chart, including Rasmussen: