Instead of posting a narrative-driven diary laying the reponsibility for the voter enthusiasm gap squarely at the feet of the Obama administration, I am posting a diary backed up by empirical data to highlight the real factors driving the much talked about "enthusiasm gap" between the Republicans and Democrats in this year's midterms.
As I've said before, in comments and in a previous diary, the voter gap for the current midterms is largely driven by an excess of GOP enthusiam, not a deficiency of Democratic enthusiam. Looking at Gallup data trends from 1994 (During Bill Clinton's first term), up to 2010, it is evident that there is an usual spike in Republican enthusiam, something that is hardly talked about in the left and right media outlets. The current emphasis by some on the left (and the MSM) on the so-called failures and inadequacies of the Obama administration as the primary element behind the enthusiasm gap is specious, yet flawed and wholly unsupported by the data, and simply serves to maintain a narrative that is indulgent and makes for good internet and tv ratings.
Currently, in the NY Times Op-ed section, there is a piece by Frank Rich attempting to explain the factors driving this voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. Very few have called Mr. Rich to task for his failure to provide any substantive data to back up his claims that Obama is largely responsible for the voter enthusiasm gap, while failing to address the excess of Republican enthusiam. This article by Mr. Rich is an opinion-driven largely speculative piece, which pushes trite memes that have been cirulating through much of the MSM over the last 9 months ago. While he cites a couple current polls, he fails to cite the most important polls about trends over time, which would annihilate his arguments in one stroke.
LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT WHAT THE DATA REALLY SHOWS:
Historically, the party that is out of power is typically more enthusiastic than the one in power for obvious reasons. According to Gallup, the Republicans in 2010, have seen a dramatic increase in enthusiasm that exceeds their normal increased enthusiasm when they are out of power. Democrats on the other hand, show a level of enthusiasm, which, while not as high as 2006 when they were out of power, also exceeds that of previous years from 1994-2002. In other words, the polling from 1994-2010 shows that Democrats in 2010 are actually showing their highest levels of enthusiam among the years that they were in power!!
In 1994, the Democrats polled at 32% enthusiasm, compared to the Republicans, who polled at 42%. Fast forward to 2010, when the Democrats are polling at 44% enthusiasm, compared to the Republicans at a whopping 59%! Clearly, it is immediately apparent that the gap is not driven by a deficiency of Democratic enthusiam, rather it's fueled by spike in GOP enthusiasm. Even if the Democratic enthusiam level rose to that of 2006 (50%), when Democrats were out of power and were highly motivated because of anger at George Bush, etc., they would still trail the Republicans by 9% - a significant gap.
CURRENT SITUATION:
Furthermore, additional data suggests that two key groups which turned out in record numbers for Barack Obama in 2008, (Blacks and young people) are not particularly attuned this elections (similar to previous midterms).
http://www.gallup.com/...
The media and pundits like Frank Rich, frame this as if it were a presidential year, with Obama on the ballot, but it isn't. It does not serve the public well, when MSM pundits apply flawed reasoning to explain the current situation. They are engaging in scapegoating and they should be called out on it.
Whenever the media shines a spotlight on the GOP, their candidates, their flaws, the Republicans' ratings plummet - and for good reason. This is why the MSM is averse to putting the GOP in the spotlight - unless they are bashing Obama of course. Frank rich is simply doing what the MSM has always done, that is, frame the discussion from an anti-Democratic viewpoint. It's time to put the spotlight where it OUGHT to be - that is on the GOP's failings, not just during Bush's presidency, but currently. And it's not just President Obama who should be doing this. The media has a responsibility to report the news accurately, and not bury facts, while hyping up opinons. Instead they are consolidating GOP enthusiasm by instigating racial/culture wars, while downplaying substantive and serious problems with the current GOP congress and leadership. If they did their jobs well, the GOP's failings would be laid bare for everyone to see.
Finally, if the MSM framed the discusion by shining a spotlight on the Republicans, they would be forced to address the very unsavory element driving the GOP enthusiasm this year. But I guess it's much easier to just say "Rahm/Geithner/Summer's fault!" and call it a day.
My hope in posting this diary, is that we put aside the temptation to indulge personal grudges and critically understand what the data on this "enthusiasm gap" is showing, and why.