Earl looks to be slowly continuing to turn. So, this behemoth may be finally about to make his turn and stay offshore. Still looks like a close call, though. Before getting into the latest on Earl, I want to point you to weatherdude's diary. While I try to focus on the technical details of what's going on, to give the community a head's up as to where the storm is heading and what to expect, his diary gives an excellent discussion of preparedness and provides some important links for preparedness info... great for anyone here in our community who may be in harm's way. Now, on to the latest with Earl.
First, the bad news is that Earl re-intensified further. In the last few hours he appears to have weakened slightly. But, overall, since last night, he has intensified. He continues to be a monster of a storm. Here's a recent satellite image of Earl:
About two hours ago (from the time I'm writing this... 7AM) the western part of the eyewall had been eroded by dry air. From the above image (from about 7AM) you can see that the convection has re-formed dramatically as Earl fights back. He is now back up to, officially, a 145mph hurricane... though the pressure has risen (indicating weakening) in the past few hours - likely due to that dry air intrusion (tropical systems dislike dry air). So, though this weakening is nice to see, it is likely not a long-term trend (yet... down the line Earl should start weakening), as indicated by the regeneration of deep convection around Earl's center.
The good news is, notice where Earl is. He has yet to reach 75W longitude (the vertical line just left of Earl in the image above). And he is moving almost due north now. If he fails to get any further west, Cape Hatteras will be spared the brunt of Earl. This will also decrease the threat somewhat to New England. I say "somewhat" because, even though he may be turning just a shade early, if it is a "softer" turn than anticipated, he could still deliver quite a punch to southeastern New England. The only place this slightly early turn doesn't do any good for is Nova Scotia. They are still expected to experience a landfall from Earl.
Looking at the latest guidance models, here's a plot showing all of them:
This plot looks messy with so many lines on it. But here's basically what you need to know... the few extreme east solutions are statistical models that will not properly handle the situation; they can be discounted. And most of the western solutions showing landfall are variants of the same model - the Navy model (called the NOGAPS). While we can't simply disregard them, this model hasn't been a top performer of late, so those landfall solutions are plausible, but not likely. That leaves us with a very tight cluster of solutions tracking Earl from east of Cape Hatteras to just east of Cape Cod to the Canadian/Maine border. This is also supported by the best performing model to date with Earl... the American model.
Here's what that model looks like at Earl's nearest pass to Cape Hatteras, Cape Cod and Nova Scotia/Maine. First Cape Hatteras:
This is pretty close to Cape Hatteras (the "L" with all the circles around it is Earl; the green and blue and purple shadings are rainfall), but given his current position/motion, Earl may end up a shade further from Hatteras than this model shows. Based on that, this looks like full-fledged hurricane conditions will either stay just offshore or impact only the Outer Banks. But all of far eastern NC should see some nasty weather with heavy rain and high winds tonight into tomorrow morning.
Then as Earl gets to New England later tomorrow:
This model image shows Earl just off of Cape Cod. He will be weakening considerably, and all of southeastern Mass will be on Earl's weak side. So, this should not be a collosally, historic strike. BUT, it is probably a close enough shave to bring hurricane conditions to the outer Cape and the Islands, with significant tropical storm force conditions to the remainder of southeastern Mass. It is possible, based on Earl's current position and motion discussed earlier, that he stays just a bit further offshore... closer to the 40N/70W "benchmark" discussed in past posts. This would reduce impacts significantly, but conditions would still be nothing to laugh at - hurricane force wind gusts would still likely impact the Islands and, perhaps, the Cape.
Finally, further north towards Nova Scotia:
Earl will be considerably weaker up this far north. Probably a minimal hurricane, maybe a low-end Category 2, at worst. Nonetheless, this is a pretty ugly picture. The track depicted on this model takes Earl very near if not into the Bay of Fundy. That's not good, especially if he's along the west side of the Bay... that will mean a significant push of water funnelling up into the Bay. It also means the western Nova Scotia is on the strong, eastern side of Earl. Of course, a track that far west may also mean pretty significant impacts for far eastern Maine.
The National Hurricane Center's track is pretty much in line with the model posted above. Here's their track:
Basically, their thinking is the same as mine. The model above has been the best performer, so that's what they're going with. It's also pretty much down the middle of the guidance... though it is on the left edge of the most reliable guidance. So, there is some hope - especially given current developments with Earl's position and motion - that maybe the actual end result track will slip a bit further east, reducing impacts for all those affected. Nove Scotia would probably still face a landfall, but a slightly more eastern track might at least keep Earl of out the Bay of Fundy for them. So, fingers crossed that the current motion/position will continue to trend east. But we saw a northward wobble last night that didn't hold. Plus, even with a slightly adjust eastward track, there will still be some very nasty weather on the Outer Banks, Cape Cod, eastern Maine and Nova Scotia. So, residents of those areas should take full preparations and, as the saying goes... prepare for the worst, but hope for the best!
I did no updates yesterday, because I was simply too busy. But I'll try to do updates later today. So, if you're interested and this rolls off the "recent" list and doesn't make the "rec" list, just bookmark this so you can come back here. And, as always, I'll try to respond to comments below.
UPDATE 11AM EDT: Not too much to update right now, as we await new computer model data. Although, I should point out, at this point there is little room for computer models to shift and time is running out... though there is just enough variation in potential outcomes for Cape Cod and Nova Scotia such that this next round of computer models is relevant.
The first of the models is in (a short-range model run by NOAA called the NAM), however it is not a very good model for handling tropical systems. Nonetheless, I do want to mention it, as it provides some good news... if it happens to be right. It takes Earl on a more eastward track. This spares Cape Cod any major impact. The Cape & Islands wouls still probably get minimal tropical storm force conditions, which could cause some sporadic power outages and other inconveniences, but would not be terribly dangerous. Unfortunately, it still doesn't spare Nova Scotia. It avoids the mess that would be a track up the Bay of Fundy, but still has landfall near of just east of Halifax.
More good news, as noted in one of my comments below, is that Earl is looking less impressive. Check out the latest satellite imagery:
...actually, that still looks pretty good... but not as impressive as earlier. And another site I use (from which I can't do an image grab) has slightly more updated imagery, and there is a distinct erosion of the deep convection on the northwest side. So, Earl has probably peaked and may be weakening some. Moreover, he is struggling to get to or past 75W longitude. While he is extremely close, and was only expected to barely clear 75W in the first place, any eastward deviation is good news.
Finally, the new National Hurricane Center update is out. Hurricane Warnings now up for SE Mass. There is no other significant change in their forecast. They have Earl as a strong Cat 1 passing Cape Cod (their final point b4 the Cape is as a Cat 2, but since it is weakening, figure strong Cat 1 once it makes its nearest approach to the Cape), and a Cat 1 or strong TS landfalling near New Brunswick or Eastport, ME.
...adding their latest map:
UPDATEx2 2PM EDT: No pretty pictures this time, just a quick update on the latest info. Almost all of the model guidance is shifting Earl further east off of Cape Cod and eastward over Nova Scotia. The eastward shift is small and not even to remove the risk to Cape Cod; and Nova Scotia still gets a direct hit. But, in the interest of not sounding like I'm overhyping this thing... let's face it, any eastward shift is good. This WILL reduce the most severe impacts over SE Mass. Fewer people will have a chance of hurricane force winds; fewer folks will see tropical storm force winds; and the chances are increased that Earl will go up the EAST side of the Bay of Fundy - which is critically important for NOT sending a storm surge right up the bay.
Other good news is that Earl appears to be weakening. After a jump (weakening) in central pressure, it has mainly leveled off in the last couple hours, but what little change there's been has been an upward drift. And subjective observations from the Air Force flying through Earl indicates that convection around his eye is weakening. And on satellite his eye appears to be filling in - another sign of weakening. So, Earl has likely peaked. Water temps don't drop rapidly for quite a while along his path, so a rapid collapse in unlikely, but he could continue to slowly weaken.
The only bad news isn't that bad... the Air Force plane has fixed his center, most recently, at 31.35N latitude and 75.20W longitude. Getting past 75W was something of a benchmark I've used, because Hatteras sits just west of 75 and many models didn't get Earl west of 75. So, that fact that he's gotten there is a little disconcerting. However, it only very slightly worrying... he is barely west of 75, and he is moving predominantly due north. At that latitude, if he only ends up 0.2 to 0.4 degrees west of 75W, it's only 10-20 miles. And there's no reason that he can't "recover" this with his turn to the east in time. Plus, given the eastward shift in the models, it's hard for me to take a mere couple tenths of a degree of longitude too seriously. I'll get worried if I see him past 75.5... but I seriously doubt he'll ever get there.