One of the head-scratching polling firms this cycle is Quinnipiac, whose Likely Voter model appears to be very favorable to Republicans (or is it just the electorate in the state that gave us Joe Lieberman?) Regardless, trends are most helpful, and this morning's Q-poll (MoE +/-3) has a tightening race at 49-46 (51-45 on Sept. 14) with only 4% undecideds.
What have they chosen to highlight? Angry voters (33%, a solid third of them - but far from a majority.) And this:
Of the 95 percent of Connecticut likely voters who have seen McMahon TV ads, 56 percent find them annoying and 40 percent find them informative. Among all voters, 54 percent say McMahon’s TV, radio and direct mail advertising is excessive, while 37 percent say it is about right.
Of the 87 percent who have seen Blumenthal TV ads, 54 percent find them informative and 42 percent find them annoying. Blumenthal’s advertising has been about right, 49 percent say, while 33 percent say he hasn’t advertised enough and 11 percent call it excessive.
“Linda McMahon has spent about $22 million on her campaign, but is it overkill? A majority of voters say that it has been excessive. In contrast, many Democrats feel that Blumenthal hasn’t been doing enough on the advertising front,” Schwartz said.
Help is on the way, there.
The Connecticut AFL-CIO is sending out thousands of political mailers to union members, urging them not to let Republican Senate candidate and former wrestling executive Linda McMahon "put a smack down" on workers....
The mailer accuses McMahon of "putting workers in danger," "opposing workers' rights" and "trying to buy a U.S. Senate seat."
Yesterday's Rasmussen poll has Blumenthal up by 5 (50-45), and though I expect Blumenthal to win, I also expect a tight race right to the finish. Blumenthal's voters are voting for him (75% of them), McMahon's against Blumenthal (44% of them) and Blumenthals fav/unfav is higher (51/41) than McMahon's (42/43). 9% for each candidate say they might change their mind, so most voters seem locked in. But the debates are coming and they may matter more than usual. Here's why:
On October 4, Democrat Richard Blumenthal, Dodd’s successor-in-waiting and the longtime state attorney general, and Republican Linda McMahon, the co-founder and erstwhile chief executive of World Wrestling Entertainment, will square off in Hartford. The atmospherics heavily favor the latter: McMahon supporters snapped up almost all the public tickets for the live audience at the Bushnell Theater, and the debate moderator is Bret Baier of Fox News.
McMahon is very media savvy and skilled in front of the camera. Blumenthal is, well, not. That's always been part of who he is. So we'll see whether voters go for the glitz or the genuine, but McMahon will have an opening.
Comedian Lewis Black will also be appearing in CT, using McMahon as part of his rant. As always, I know how he feels.