At theoildrum.com the latest 2009 update still show the 2006 EIA estimate at 95 MBO/day was last revised down to 90 MBO/day in 2008 whereas production of oil actually peaked at 82.88 MBO/day in 2008 and we are presently at 80/MBO/day and falling fast.
Updates to both the EIA and the oildrum.com's charts are past due.
OPEC's Spare Crude Oil Capacity - Will it Disappear by the End of 2011? OPEC spare crude oil reserves are dropping and expected to disappear in 2011. If you haven't been keeping an eye on Peak oil as well as the environmental damage to the gulf this article is worth reading
The fleet of oil tankers loaded with crude off Indonesia has unloaded. Continued spills in the Gulf may eventually force Obamas moratorium on deep water drilling further reducing production.
Presumably running out of oil before we have fully embraced alternative energy as a nation is a mixed blessing. As we spend more money on energy there is less money left to spend on other things.
Perhaps our running out of cheap fossil fuels is natures way of telling us its hot enough this summer and well past time time to reduce our carbon emissions.
I'm not sure how the economy will react to a scarcity of cheap fossil fuel, if the supply were there I'd expect us to be madly producing as fast as we could and for the demand and price to go up. For the supply to continue to go down indicates we can't produce enough to meet demand anymore no matter what.
I'd expect that as the price of oil goes up so does everything else, certainly the price of everything that has to be transported somewhere including labor, maybe even home prices.