Chicago politics received a political bombshell when Mayor Richard M. Daley said he would not run for re-election, ending 21 years as mayor and more than 40 years in public office. As you might expect, the clueless pundits in the national media breathlessly wondered if President Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, is the mayor in waiting.
They should bother to talk to some people in Chicago first.
Emanuel teased the national media about this earlier this year, coyly saying he would love to be mayor "one day." And both Emanuel and Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said they were "stunned" by Daley's announcement. (Shows you how out of step they are.)
No incumbent is popular, and that includes Mayor Daley. A poll taken this summer showed that fewer than half of Chicago voters wanted him to remain in office. Chicago didn't get the Olympics, on which Daley placed many hopes for new jobs. The city's parking meter deal, in which Daley sold parking meter rights to a private firm, has been a disaster and a bad money deal for Chicago. And like any other big city, Chicago is rife with budget woes. Not to mention the usual Chicago corruption, crime, etc., etc.
Probably the biggest factor is the health of Daley's wife, Maggie. She has had several recurring bouts of cancer and had a leg amputated in the last year. They wouldn't speak publicly about this to preserve family privacy, but this has to be the main reason.
Which brings us back to the main point: Who will replace Mayor Daley? And who thinks Emanuel has a good chance?
Emanuel isn't particularly popular. He had a safe congressional seat now ably filled by Mike Quigley. But people in Chicago have no great love for him. We weren't impressed by his record (or lack thereof) in electing Democrats in 2006. If anything, people here see him as a rude, grandstanding politician who hasn't done much to help Chicago.
Who does that leave us? Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.? He's always described as the only one who could give Daley a run for his money, but has he become too tainted from the Blagojevich trial, when some of "his people" seemed to promise large campaign donations in return for a Senate appointment? Still the one to watch.
How about Rep. Luis Gutierrez, a popular politician in the Hispanic community and tireless backer of immigration reform? Since it's not going to pass anytime soon, why wouldn't he hang it up in Washington and run for mayor?
There are a slew of city aldermen who might be interested, too. Add to that Chicago businessmen who think they could be the city's savior. Given all of those choices, somehow, I don't think Rahm would poll that high.
Of course, Rod Blagojevich has said he "wouldn't rule out a political comeback." Mayor Blago? Over the voters' dead bodies. Besides, you can't run for mayor if you've been convicted of a felony, and even with so many 11-1 votes by the jury, he still was convicted on one count of lying to the FBI.