Yeah, I know...I made a big deal Monday night about how I'd be out until Thursday because of a little trip to the surgeon. But, heck, how was I to know that every campaign in America would get polled on Tuesday and Wednesday?!
So, bandaged and bruised, I came back a day early. And, from the looks of the data, I came back in time to see Democrats getting off of the mat a little bit.
A day of polls with more than a little silver lining amid the clouds of suck. That's worth coming back a day early from medical leave...
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: CNN/Time poll puts Boxer up four in key Golden State battle
CNN and Time Magazine, through their polling partners at Opinion Research, are back for the 2010 cycle, as it relates to individual contests. They open up their polling with three big states (California, Florida, and Kentucky). In the Golden State, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by four points (48-44). Recent polls had shown Fiorina inching into the lead.
FL-Sen: CNN/Time says tossup; teabaggers hound 3rd party candidate
The CNN/Time pollsters also hit the Sunshine State, and they see a pretty pure toss-up between Republican nominee Marco Rubio and GOPer-turned-Indie candidate Charlie Crist. Rubio has the narrow edge, with 36% of the vote. Charlie Crist is right on his heels (34%), while CNN/Time puts Democrat Kendrick Meek at one of his best points of the year, earning 24% of the vote.
The closeness of the race might be the impetus for a new crusade by the local teabaggers. The baggers, who have long been in love with Rubio, are trying to push Libertarian candidate Alex Snitker out of the race. Snitker, for the moment, is holding his ground, saying that true constitutional conservatives would be supporting him, rather than Rubio.
KY-Sen: Pair of new polls confirm closeness of Senate battle
Rand Paul might not be running away with it, after all. A pair of new polls out today indicate that Democrat Jack Conway is within the margin of error against Paul. An Anzalone Liszt poll showed a three-point race, with Rand Paul up three points (48-45) over Conway. Some might easily dismiss it as a Democratic pollster, but then CNN/Time followed up today with a poll showing a dead-even race. The CNN/Time poll had Conway and Paul all knotted up at 46% of the vote. Rasmussen, as you'll see below, begs to differ (no doubt shocking political observers everywhere in the process).
WA-Sen: Democratic poll gives Murray a five-point edge
In another of a wave of Democratic internal polls this week (which is quite a reversal from the cycle-to-date), a new poll from FM3 (Franklin Maslin Maul and Metz, but it's easier to say FM3) shows incumbent Patty Murray up five points on Republican Dino Rossi in the closely watched Senate race in Washington. The poll had Murray up 50-45 over Rossi. The poll was conducted on behalf of the DSCC, the campaign wing of Senate Democrats.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-24: GOP pollster claims double digit deficit for Kosmas
If a new Public Opinion Strategies poll out of central Florida is to be believed, freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas goes into the heat of the general election cycle down by a dozen points to Republican nominee Sandy Adams. The poll by POS puts Adams up 49-37 over Kosmas, who defeated Tom Feeney rather easily in 2008. The poll claims that both President Obama (38/58) and Speaker Pelosi (30/64) have horrid numbers in the district, which could explain Kosmas' apparent dilemma.
IL-10: New Anzalone Liszt poll gives Dems good shot at a pickup
Illinois' 10th district has, throughout this cycle, always felt like that one GOP-held seat that seemed destined to flip to the Democrats. A new Anzalone-Liszt poll on behalf of Democratic nominee Dan Seals seems to confirm that supposition. The poll has Seals leading Republican nominee Bob Dold by thirteen points (49-36). The poll is an internal poll, but even right-wing pollsters We Ask America have given Seals the lead in this swing district thus far.
IL-17: GOP pollster says Hare trails in nominally Democratic district
Speaking of the right-wing polling crew at We Ask America, they have elected to poll the usually Democratic 17th district. Their results are similar to other GOP internals in the district, which seem to insist that this district is, indeed, competitive in this cycle. W.A.A. gives Republican Bobby Schilling a narrow lead (41-38) over Democratic incumbent Phil Hare. Green Party candidate Roger Davis takes 4% of the vote.
KS-04: Internal poll says Dem upset possible, with or without Hartman
It is probably high time for everyone to put this race on the radar screens, despite being an open seat in a district with a considerable GOP tilt. An acrimonious GOP primary, plus a stronger-than-average Democratic nominee, seems to have put this Wichita-based district in play. A slightly dusty internal poll from Democrat Raj Goyle's campaign (courtesy of Gerstein-Agne Strategic Communications) from mid-August gave Republican Mike Pompeo a mere three-point edge (50-47). What's more, the withdrawal of Libertarian candidate David Moffett, for health reasons may well throw the race into total upheaval. One of the candidates that Pompeo defeated for the GOP nomination, wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, will announce in the next couple of days whether or not he will seek the nod of the Libertarian Party to run on their line. Hartman and the Libertarians met together yesterday to discuss such a bid.
MS-01: Dem internal poll puts Childers ahead in tough district
This internal poll might be one of the more pleasant surprises of the week, as it shows a Democratic lead in a district that a lot of pundits probably would have left for dead a month ago. The poll, from Anzalone Liszt, gives Democrat Travis Childers a narrow edge over Republican Alan Nunnelee (46-41). Childers won a special election in June of 2008 in a district that went heavily for both George W. Bush and John McCain.
NY-25: Palin endorsement lauded...by the Democrat in the race
We've already seen this during the cycle up in New Hampshire (where Democrat Paul Hodes had great fun with Kelly Ayotte), but another Democrat is hyping a Republican candidate's endorsement by Sarah Palin. Freshman Democrat Dan Maffei has cut an ad where he points out that Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has been endorsed by Sarah Palin. In a district that was won by Gore, Kerry, and Obama, Buerkle's connectivity with Palin is not likely to be much of an advantage in the general election.
NC-08: Even Republicans concede Kissell up front in key race
Kind of a curious release here--the campaign for Republican nominee Harold Johnson has released an internal poll by Public Opinion Strategies. The curious thing about this GOP internal poll is that it shows the Republican candidate trailing his Democratic rival. The POS poll puts Kissell at 39%, with Johnson trailing at 34%. One of the quintet of DCCC polls released yesterday showed Kissell up double digits on Johnson (48-36).
PA-04: Dem internal claims massive lead for Altmire
One district that apparently the Democrats don't have to worry about defending is the swing 4th district in Western Pennsylvania. At least, that's the case if a new internal poll on behalf of second-term Rep. Jason Altmire is to be believed. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Altmire with a two-to-one edge over Republican Keith Rothfus (51-24). Rothfus scored what was generally considered to be an upset win over NRCC fave Mary Beth Buchanan in May's GOP primary.
WA-08: SUSA claims double-digit lead for Reichert
SurveyUSA continues its brutal outlook for Dems, putting a potential pickup well into the GOP column in a new poll out of suburban Seattle. Perpetually vulnerable Republican Dave Reichert has a thirteen-point lead over Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, according to SUSA (54-41). Reichert scored narrow wins over Darcy Burner in both 2006 and 2008, and has never won the district by more than six points.
WV-01: Even GOP internal concedes Dem lead in key open seat
Perhaps in response to an internal poll by Democrat Mike Oliverio (one which showed him up 16 points), the campaign for Republican David McKinley rushed out their own internal poll. While the poll shows Oliverio out in front, the margin is quite a bit smaller. The poll, by Public Opinion Strategies, puts Oliverio up five points (41-36) on McKinley.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Whitman up by two, according to CNN/Time poll
Despite outspending her rival by literally a hundred million dollars, Meg Whitman can still manage no better than a coin flip with Democratic nominee Jerry Brown. The CNN/Time poll shows Whitman sitting on 48% of the vote, with Brown just behind her at 46% of the vote. Whitman's television presence has been constant in the state for seven months, while Brown just took to the air for the first time this week.
CO-Gov: GOP suit tries to knock Tancredo off of the ballot
A lawsuit, filed by two Republicans (not affiliated with the state party, however), is seeking to prevent Tom Tancredo from appearing on the ballot as a member of the American Constitution Party. Their case is built on the fact that Tancredo was a registered Republican until July, which they argue violates Colorado state law. Republicans have issues of their own, as their nominee, Dan Maes, was outraised 8-to-1 by Democrat John Hickenlooper in August, and is facing further fines for campaign finance reporting failures. Tancredo also outraised the GOP nominee.
FL-Gov: Sink up seven over Scott, according to CNN/Time poll
CNN/Time also took a look at the competitive gubernatorial race in Florida, and finds that Democrat Alex Sink is sitting on a seven-point advantage over Republican Rick Scott. Sink leads Scott 49-42, according to the poll, among the first polls conducted after the withdrawal of Independent candidate Bud Chiles from the race.
ME-Gov: PPP poll confirms rising red tide in normally blue Maine
This might be the suckiest poll of the day, and it comes as a bit of a surprise. For months, only Rasmussen has polled the Maine Governor's race, and they (true to form) have been bullish on the Republican in the race, Paul LePage. Today, PPP heads down East, and they find numbers that are even worse for the Democrats than anything Rasmussen has ever offered. PPP gives LePage a double-digit lead (43-29) over Democrat Libby Mitchell. Independent Elliot Cutler, who seems to be drawing more from Mitchell than from LePage, was holding down 11% of the vote.
MA-Gov: Patrick leading, but only modestly, over Baker
A new KRC/Communications Research poll in Massachusetts, conducted for the Statehouse News Service, gives Deval Patrick a lead of six points over Republican Charlie Baker in his bid for re-election. Patrick is at 34% of the vote, with Baker at 28% and Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill showing some renewed strength at 18% of the vote (his support had dropped steadily throughout the year). Patrick is still being saved, however, by split opposition, as his approval numbers are fairly woeful (only 33% of voters think he is doing an "excellent" or "above average" job).
MI-Gov: Snyder dominant, according to Mitchell Communications poll
With the caveat that this pollster has been abnormally bullish on Republican candidates quite often, the new numbers from Mitchell Communications in the state of Michigan are just flat out ugly. The new poll gives Republican Rick Snyder a two-to-one edge over Democrat Virg Bernero (53-26). The Republican leads women by eighteen points, and Independents by an almost unreal 41 points.
TX-Gov: Third poll confirms toss-up in the Lone Star State
In addition to the pair of polls cited by Markos earlier today, we have a third poll providing confirmation that Democrat Bill White is very much within striking distance of Republican incumbent Rick Perry. The poll, conducted by John Zogby for a private client, shows Perry up by just three points over White (44-41). The poll apparently was a traditional one, not one of the largely lampooned "Interactive" polls Zogby did in previous cycles.
WI-Gov: Doyle clears warchest, with bulk of cash aiding Barrett
Let this set the example for recalcitrant House Dems with locks on their warchests: Wisconsin's Democratic Governor, Jim Doyle, is emptying out much of his remaining warchest to try to aid state Democrats this Fall. The retiring state executive is donating $1 million to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, a Democratic outfit primarily interested in the open-seat gubernatorial race between Democrat Tom Barrett and a Republican to be named later (Sept. 14). The committee has already run ads dinging both of the Republicans who could eventually challenge Barrett: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Congressman Mark Neumann.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
While the polling picture for Democrats pepped up quite a bit elsewhere, the House of Ras held steady, and true to form. Kentucky will probably attract the most eyeballs (as they match SUSA with a fifteen-point spread), but the numbers from Arizona in the wake of Jan Brewer's debate meltdown are perhaps even harder to believe. If she is really up 22 after that debacle, I have lost faith in an entire state, I'm sorry to say...
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 60%, Terry Goddard (D) 38%
CA-Gov: Meg Whitman (R) 48%, Jerry Brown (D) 45%
CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina (R) 48%, Barbara Boxer (D) 47%
DE-Sen: Mike Castle (R) 48%, Chris Coons (D) 37%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 54%, Jack Conway (D) 39%