Conservatives are winning the national debate over the federal deficit for one simple reason -- they have succeeded in inaccurately framing the deficit problem as a spending problem.
Every budget in America, from our household budgets to business budgets to local, state and federal budgets has some fat that could be cut out. And we all could find some dimes and dollars to save across the board.
But, spending, especially nondefense discretionary spending, is a tiny fraction of our national deficit problem. The fact that our national media can't seem to grasp this basic point is undermining any serious effort to get at what I agree is a very serious deficit crisis facing America.
Do you need evidence that spending isn't the problem, at least not nondefense discretionary spending? Take a look at federal spending as a percentage of GDP.
In 1992, total federal spending reached 22% of GDP, thanks largely to the Bush I recession. While this was a bit of a spike, it was actually lower than the 23% we reached in 1982 during that year's recession, which was the highest point since WWII.
After Clinton's two terms, federal spending reached a 25-year low of 18%. Then, after Bush II's two terms, spending rose to about 24%. During Obama's first year -- with the stimulus and the worst recession since the Great Depression -- we peaked at nearly 25%.
But, here's the point. We're already back below 24% if you look at total federal spending and on our way sharply lower. And, if you look at it closely, nearly half of our increase since 2001 is defense spending with nearly the other half being health care spending.
In other words, if you control for our wars and soaring health care costs, and you control for the recession and the short-term stimulus, you would virtually eliminate ANY increase in federal spending as a percentage of GDP.
Federal spending on education is less than 1% of GDP and is lower today than it was in the 1970s. Spending on welfare has spiked a bit, thanks entirely to the recession. And spending on transportation has increased since 2000 but is still about 23% lower than in the 1960s.
In contrast, federal revenue as a percentage of GDP has declined sharply since 2000, from about 20% to 15% (thank you Bush tax cuts).
It's not as if spending has contributed nothing to the deficit crisis. But, if you control for defense spending and increased health care costs as well as the short-term stimulus and the recession, we don't have a spending problem.
And yet, the entire deficit debate right now is about spending and not revenue. Here's a prediction for the know-nothing pundits and the chattering class. If we don't start having an honest debate about our budget, we will not be able to solve the deficit problem.
You can have your own fun with these charts: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/... and http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/....