There is a lot of political news that should encourage Democrats about the state of the party, and some that is discouraging to Republicans. Events in Wisconsin have revived and buttressed the party base after the calamity of 2010. Republican governors throughout the Midwest are watching their support plummet as voters begin to take the measure of their policies. President Obama, despite the weak economy and high unemployment, is beating all of his potential Republican challengers. The House and Senate campaign committees beat their Republican counterparts in fundraising last quarter. These things, however, pale in comparison to the biggest political news story this week: Fifty Million Latinos.
The states with the largest percent growth in their Hispanic populations include nine where the Latino population more than doubled, including a swath in the southeast United StatesâAlabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee and South Carolina. The Hispanic population also more than doubled in Maryland and South Dakota.
First Read picked up on this news as well:
We've said it here before, and now with the new Census numbers out it's worth repeating: Latinos are already a serious political force in America and their influence will only get bigger. And that could be problematic for Republicans on a presidential level, because overwhelmingly right now, they prefer Democrats. Obama won Latinos 67%-31% in 2008, and they made up just 9% of the electorate. In the 2010 exit polls, when Republicans swept Democrats out of the U.S. House, Hispanics still preferred Democrats by a similar 64%-34% margin. And they made up just 8% of the electorate.
The news that there are now 50 million Latinos in America should serve as a wake-up call for both parties. The growth in the Latino community has been a substantial boon to Democratic fortunes. It will only become more so. The Republican Party has openly declared that it is hostile to Latinos, not only with their words but by the sorts of laws they pass. With Blacks, Latinos, and others combined making up almost 35% of the national population, Republicans have openly declared their dislike for a huge, huge swath of the electorate, leaving them with a desperate need to run the table on the White vote and do everything possible to keep the Latino population from becoming active voters. This new Latino population is growing and voting in the Democratic Party. The question is what sort of party are they going to get?
The Latino vote is going to have a substantial impact on the Democratic Party in the near future. I suspect that the large influx of working class, largely Catholic voters is likely to produce a party that is more economically progressive, but more socially conservative. That would be quite the opposite of the Democratic Party today, which is socially liberal but advocates economic policies not that much different from Republicans. In my view, this will do nothing but improve the party's standing at the polls. The question is, do the Democratic donors and party officials understand this? Probably not. As of today, their appeals to the Latino vote is largely "We aren't as bad as Republicans"—and that is true. But there are still a substantial number of unregistered Latino voters, presenting Democrats with the opportunity to actually do something to drive recruitment of a huge, growing demographic. Progressive activists should especially take note. If you don't have Latinos in your strategy, you''re shooting yourself in the foot. Democrats had better get on the ball with policies and messages that appeal to Latinos beyond reciting the same old pablum in Spanish. There is a strong majority in these hills.
Republicans certainly understand that they have big problems with the Latino vote, and it isn't going to work out well over time. A great case in point was their attempt to take out Harry Reid. Without the Latino vote, Harry Reid would have lost. But he put his lot in with Latinos early and often, while his opponent was forced to try and drive up her share of the White vote to astronomical levels in order to win. It couldn't be done. That is the key problem facing Republicans: their base hates people of color, but their base is shrinking. This forces them into position of doing everything they can to drive up their share of the White vote, of which there is ceiling. They'll never be able to get the entire White population to be hostile to people of color. So they face a sort of death spiral unless they can find some way to appeal to the Latino vote, constantly fighting for a shrinking share of old, wealthy white bigots. It really is that simple.
I don't know how the parties will ultimately pan out. Maybe the Republicans will see the light and adopt a very different attitude towards Latinos. Maybe the Democrats will finally adopt ideas and policies that appeal to the working class, encouraging them to participate in our democracy. Who knows? But if trends keep going like their going now, I suspect the browning of America is going to work out well and bring new life to Democrats.