Based on a survey of business establishments, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 216,000 jobs in March, 10 percent higher than the consensus of experts surveyed earlier this week. The private sector generated 230,000 new jobs, while local and state governments shed 14,000.
The unemployment rate, which is determined from data gathered in a separate survey of 60,000 U.S. households, fell slightly to 8.8 percent. The number of officially unemployed fell to 13.5 million. An alternative measure that includes people with part-time jobs who want to work full time, as well as a portion of discouraged workers, fell to 15.7 percent.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 64.2 percent, as was the employment-population ratio at 58.4 percent. The number of Americans who have been unemployed for six months or more rose to 6.1 million.
Other than Census hiring last spring, the BLS report for March showed the best gain since March 2006. Since their peak in September 2008, state and local governments have shed 416,000 jobs.
"The labor market recovery is gathering momentum," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist of the economic-assessment firm High Frequency Economics, told MarketWatch Thursday.
"I suspect [Friday] will be the first time I use 'traction' and 'momentum,'" economist Heidi Shierholz of the labor-focused Economic Policy Institute told The New York Times. "I suspect that the workers on the sideline will start coming back in."
At the current rate of hiring, however, the number of Americans with a job will not reach the pre-recession peak until January 2014. And the current rate of hiring is exactly what most analysts predict will be the case. By the end of the year, that might mean 2.5 million new jobs. But 8.4 million jobs were lost in the downturn, which began in December 2007. The unemployment rate is now at the same level as it was two years ago. But that's partly a reflection of the fact so many people have stopped looking for work, which means they're no longer counted among the unemployed. If they rejoin the labor force but can't find jobs, the unemployment rate will rise.
Revisions today raised job gains reported in January from 63,000 to 68,000, and in February from 192,000 to 194,000. Quite an improvement over March 2009, when 796,000 jobs were lost (the second worst showing of the recession). In March 2010, boosted by Census hiring, 192,000 jobs were generated. The unemployment rate was 8.6 percent in March 2009, and 9.7 percent a year ago. In the past four months, the economy has grown a seasonally adjusted average of 157,000 jobs a month.
As more Americans go back to work, however, Motoko Rich at The New York Times, reports:
[M]any of the jobs being added in retail, hospitality and home health care, to name a few categories, are unlikely to pay enough for workers to cover the cost of fundamentals like housing, utilities, food, health care, transportation and, in the case of working parents, child care.
A separate report being released Friday tries to go beyond traditional measurements like the poverty line and minimum wage to show what people need to earn to achieve a basic standard of living.
The study, commissioned by Wider Opportunities for Women, a nonprofit group, builds on an analysis the group and some state and local partners have been conducting since 1995 on how much income it takes to meet basic needs without relying on public subsidies. The new study aims to set thresholds for economic stability rather than mere survival, and takes into account saving for retirement and emergencies.
Additional findings in the BLS report:
• Unemployment rates for adult men — 8.6 percent; adult women — 7.7 percent; teenagers — percent, whites — 7.9 percent; blacks — 15.5 percent; and Latinos —11.3 percent; Asians — 7.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted).
• Number of people working part time involuntarily (who would prefer full-time work): 8.4 million
• Individuals not in the labor force who wanted and were available for work and sought jobs in the past 12 months but not the past four weeks: 2.4 million
• Professional and business services: up 78,000, 29,000 of which were in temporary help services
• Leisure and hospitality services: up 37,000
• Manufacturing employment: up 17,000
• Construction employment: down 1000
• Mining: up 15,000
• Health care: up 37,000
• Retail trade employment: up 17,700
• The average workweek for production and non-supervisory workers rose to 34.3 hours.
• The average hourly earnings for all employees on private
nonfarm payrolls increased held steady at $22.87.