You may have heard the rumblings. Something strange is happening across the northern border. On Monday, May 2nd, Canadians are going to the polls for their fourth general election in seven years and the winds of change are blowing.
When the election was announced in March, Stephen Harper and his Conservatives were riding high in the polls and there was speculation they might actually win a majority government.
Then came the televised leadership debates in French and English where NDP leader Jack Layton kicked butt and took names. Now Layton and his New Democratic Party are surging, no more so than in the province of Québec where historically the NDP has been virtually shut out in national elections.
The NDP, the most progressive of Canada’s three major political parties, has never been elected to national power. They have never even formed the official opposition, a role which falls to the party finishing second in the national election. Some version of the Liberal or Conservative Party has held power in every Canadian election since Confederation in 1867.
Let me be clear, the Conservatives are almost certainly going to win the election but, if the trend continues, they will not win a majority and the NDP may finish second, setting the stage for a possible first-ever coalition government in Canada. Regardless of how the back-room negotiatons play out, a second place showing for the NDP on Monday would be a huge victory for progressive politics in North America.
As a French-speaking American living in Montreal for the past seven years, I offer this overview in the hope of making the Canadian election more enjoyable and more understandable for interested Kossacks south of the border.
Update: Thanks to commenter Cream Puff for pointing out that there was previously a coalition government in Canada from 1917 - 1920.
The Parliamentary System
In Canada there are 308 federal electoral districts or ridings, often referred to as ¨seats¨ since each district equates to a representative seat in the Canadian House of Parliament. There are no term limits in Canada and all 308 districts are contested each time there is an election which can occur anytime but no more than 5 years apart. Whichever party wins the largest number of seats in the election has the right to select the Prime Minister. Canadians do not vote directly for their Prime Minister. He or she must contest an election in one of the 308 districts.
To win a majority government, one party must win 50% +1 or 155 seats. In the last election in 2008, the Conservative Party won 144 seats and its leader, Stephen Harper, became Prime Minister. The Liberal Party was second with 77 seats followed by the Bloc Québécois (BQ) with 48 seats and the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 37 seats. There is a Green Party in Canada but it did not win a single seat in 2008.
Minority Government
Since the Conservatives did not win 155 seats, they formed a ¨minority¨ government, meaning that when there is a vote in the Parliament, the Conservatives need at least 11 members of an opposition party to support their legislative proposals.
This may seem very normal to American observers who are used to the House and Senate which often require opposition support to pass legislation but keep in mind, in Canada, if the party in power loses a vote, the government fails and they are required to call a national election. This makes for mostly mild legislative reform under a minority government, which many will argue is actually a good thing.
In the 41 elections since Canadian confederation in 1867, only 11 have resulted in a minority government. However, the last three elections (2004, 2006 and 2008) have all yielded a minority result.
The Bloc Québécois
The main reason for the recent string of minority Canadian governments is the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc, whose founding principle is the separation of Québec from Canada, was formed in 1991 in response to a failed attempt to ratify the Canadian Constitution in a way that would include Québec. In 1993 the Bloc won 54 of Québec’s 75 seats and since then has never held fewer than 38 seats. The Bloc currently holds 49 seats in Québec, the only province where they run candidates.
The Political Map
This is probably a good time to point out that Canada’s 308 legislative districts or ridings are allocated by population. Ontario has the most seats with 106, followed by Québec with 75. Next largest are British Columbia with 38 seats and Alberta with 28. No other province has more than 14 seats.
Canada's political representation by population is a huge frustration for all provinces not named Ontario or Québec but especially so for Alberta, which sits on most of Canada's oil reserves and where the Conservatives hold 27 of 28 seats.
The Conservatives are very strong in the three prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. British Columbia tends to split between hard right Conservatives and more progressive candidates (the first Green Party winner may come from BC). The four Atlantic provinces, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, are a mixed bag politcally and, with a combined 32 seats, have limited influence in the national outcome. The three Arctic territories, Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut have only one seat each.
Since 1993 Québec has consistently gone for the Bloc, leaving Ontario, the historical bastion of the Liberal party, as the main battleground for Canadian political power. The current Ontario representation is 51 Conservative, 38 Liberal and 17 NDP. It is easy to see how difficult it is to win a majority government without making significant inroads in Québec, where the Conservatives currently hold a paltry 10 seats.
On a side note, Canadian elections are restricted to 6 weeks of campaigning with spending limits of around $20 million. Compared with Citizens United and the two-year lead-in to US presidential elections, Canada is a world of political sanity.
Québec and The NDP Wave
Although frustrating to Stephen Harper and his Conservatives, Canadians have become quite comfortable with the idea of minority government. Harper first won with a minority in 2006 and his party was re-elected comfortably in 2008. When the 2011 election campaign began on March 26 all the pundits were forecasting another minority Conservative win.
But here we are, 3 days before the election, with the papers talking about an Orange (NDP colors) wave sweeping Québec. Michael Igantieff and the Liberals, the Conservatives' current oppostion have failed to inspire the electorate and are sinking in every poll, leaving Harper to concentrate on attacking the NDP. The real story though, is Gilles Duceppe, the leader of the Bloc Québécois who is facing a party mutiny. Former Bloc loyalists are publicly advocating for Québec ¨separatists¨ to vote for the NDP, saying that the Bloc ¨has shown its limitations and it is time to move on¨.
Today's editorial page of Montreal’s main French language paper, La Presse, speculates that Layton could become Prime Minister as part of an NDP/Liberal coalition. The money quote... ¨To vote for the Bloc is to vote for the same right wing government that we have been living with and that his been the worst we have ever known.¨
Strange times in Canada. Pass the popcorn and stand by for the results on Monday!