All the cheering and USA chants in the streets over the death of Osama Bin Laden is easy to understand at first blush. After all it's been 10 years since 9/11. I am as glad he is dead as anyone, but I think a more apt description of the national mood is more a sense of cautious relief than celebration.
As objectively as I can, here is my analysis of why it's almost impossible to really feel good about this, in no particular order:
Benefits:
1. Revenge for the victims of 9/11. Nuff said.
2. Security. One less major terrorist to worry about.
3. Smack down of Al Qaeda. Undeniable it is a major blow to Al Qaeda. Although someone will surely replace him, hard to argue that Al Qaeda will ever be as much of a threat.
3. Deterrence. Will have some discouraging effect on other terrorists, but it is arguable how much. The message has been sent though to the world that killing Americans will ultimately not go unpunished.
4. Morale booster for the soldiers currently in the field.
5. Political win for Obama. I know some Republicans don't want to admit this, but it is true that he placed a focus on OBL that Bush lost in the rush to invade Iraq.
Costs:
1. American lives. Thousands of lives of US soldiers in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of wounded and maimed requiring extensive and expensive care and treatment.
2. Economic Cost. Trillions of dollars and resources and the main contributor to our national deficit.
3. Compromised Values: From warrantless wiretapping, to extraordinary rendition, to water boarding, to indefinite imprisonment without due process of law, to the imprisonment of Bradley Manning, the American sense of rule of law and fair play has undeniably been permanently eroded by the GWOT.
4. Decline of American standing in the world. Caused in part by #3, but also by international perception (right or wrong) that the almost entirely unilateral invasion of two sovereign countries in the Middle East was really just about expanding US control over resources and the world.
For example, 90% of Egyptians believe that the United States is the biggest threat to the Middle East and would rather see a nuclear-armed Iran than American interference in the region. Hard to blame them when the tear gas cannisters shot at them all say, "Made in the USA" but that's another story.
5. Opportunity Cost: Had we not invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, we would have had trillions of extra dollars to spend here at home.
Deficit problem, unemployment problem, health care problem? No problem. For example, we could have paid for free health care for every man woman and child in America for the next 100 years and had plenty left over.
Plus, who knows what some of the people killed or wounded could have accomplished?
Much more could be said here but I will leave that up to others to speculate on.
6. Proliferation of anti-US terrorist organizations. Over the last decade, international copycat terror groups have spawned like wildfire, motivated in large part to the sense that American imperialism is the biggest threat in the world.
7. Collateral Damage. Tens of thousands of innocent men, women, and children have been killed by American bombs and bullets. In Iraq, sectarian violence deaths number in the hundreds of thousands. One country's "collateral damage" is anothers state-sponsored terrorism. I'm sure OBL viewed the 9/11 victims as "collateral damage" as well.
8. Destablization of the Middle East. Along with the obvious problems caused by our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, these wars have caused a massive flood of refugees into neighboring countries. In Syria for example, there are hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees who must be supported by an already-poor government, one which is now being overthrown in large part because of economic hardships.
9. Degradation of American military power. Fighting two wars for over 10 years with an all-volunteer army designed merely to be a place holder for a drafted army has undeniably weakened our military strength and readiness. Stop-loss, DADT, and other unpopular military policies have made life a nightmare for the ones already serving and recruitment and retention exponentially harder for those yet to sign up.
10. Ripple Effects. The loss of each and every American soldier has devastated every family and community from which those men came from. Suicides amongst soldiers who served are higher than the actual deaths in Afghanistan.
Soldiers come home broken men and with little to no psychological help. Far too many wind up addicted to drugs, in jail, or dead because they cannot adjust back to civilian life.
11. Reprisals. Already a worldwide travel alert has been issued for Americans traveling abroad. Whether this fear is justified or not remains to be seen, but the threat is real.
I'm not sure how anyone can objectively look at all that and celebrate the death of Osama Bin Laden unless you have a very short memory. But if you disagree or feel I have left out some costs or benefits, feel free to add and discuss them in the comments.
Updated by Lawguy101 at Mon May 02, 2011 at 12:10 PM PDT
Iraq: Many have vigorously argued that Iraq had nothing to do with OBL and I agree. I only included it as a potential cost because W used it as a justification for that invasion.
But even if you want to set Iraq aside entirely, thats fine. Make your point about whether it was justified or not setting Iraq aside. I think if you look at it objectively, the end result of the analysis stays the same that it wasnt worth it, even without including Iraq.