Now that Dave's Redistricting app has partisan data for AZ, we can get an idea of what the partisan breakdown of the state's congressional districts may look like. For those of you that don't know, Arizona is gaining a 9th congressional district next year. The task of drawing the new congressional map falls on the state's Independent Redistricting Commission, a bipartisan panel composed of two Democrats, two Republicans, and one Independent. You can learn more about the commission here. This was my attempt to "read the mind" of the commission and draw a map similar to the one they might draw, using the same standards that they will (keeping cities, counties, and "communities of interest" together where possible).
Phoenix area detail:
Pinal county, an exurb of Phoenix, has experienced the most growth of any part of the state, so it seemed right to base the new 9th district in Pinal instead of splitting the county between multiple districts as it is now. The details for the districts are:
1st District (Blue)
Representative: Paul Gosar (R-Flagstaff)
Racial composition: 62% White, 15% Hispanic, 19% Native American, 3% Other
2008 Vote: 54% McCain, 45% Obama (formerly 54% McCain, 44% Obama)
This district picks up Cochise county from the 8th and Kingman from the 2nd, while dropping Prescott into the 2nd. This amounts to trading Republicans for Republicans, so the partisan breakdown doesn't really change. Paul Gosar will still face a tough challenge next year from former congresswomen Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff).
2nd District (Green)
Representative: None (open)
78% White, 17% Hispanic, 5% Other
64% McCain, 35% Obama (formerly 61% McCain, 38% Obama)
This district now pulls mostly out of Maricopa county due to population growth in the exurbs and the Prescott area. It is full of conservative white retirees and thus the most Republican district in the state.
3rd District (Purple)
Representative: Trent Franks (R-Glendale) and Ben Quayle (R-Phoenix)
70% White, 20% Hispanic, 10% Other
58% McCain, 41% Obama (formerly 57% McCain, 42% Obama)
With all his baggage, Quayle isn't going to win the primary here against a much more entrenched incumbent. This district is safely Republican regardless.
4th District (Red)
Representative: Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix)
54% Hispanic, 30% White, 9% Black, 6% Other
64% Obama, 35% McCain (formerly 66% Obama, 33% McCain)
This district remains one of two majority-Hispanic in the state and safely Democratic.
5th District (Yellow)
Representative: None (open)
64% White, 22% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 8% other
52% McCain, 47% Obama (formerly 52% McCain, 47% Obama)
In this district, liberal Tempe is balanced out by conservative West Mesa and Chandler. It remains a Republican-leaning district but one that is definitely competitive for Democrats. Given that this would be an open seat, Democrats would have a shot at it next year, especially if former congressman Harry Mitchell (D-Tempe) ran again.
6th District (Teal)
Representative: Dave Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills)
82% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Other
57% McCain, 42% Obama (formerly 61% McCain, 38% Obama)
Schweikert is redrawn here from the 5th district, and should be happy to have a much safer district to run in.
7th District (Grey)
Representative: Raul Grijalva (D-Tuscon)
54% Hispanic, 36% White, 11% Other
57% Obama, 42% McCain (formerly 57% Obama, 42% McCain)
In order to move the 8th entirely within Pima county, Grijalva has to some of his Tuscon territory. I took out mostly the white liberal areas of Tuscon, and also Yuma which with it's conservative retiree population is a better fit for the 2nd. In exchange, the district gets more Hispanic territory in Maricopa county, keeping the partisanship the same.
8th District (Slate Blue)
Representative: Gabby Giffords (D-Tuscon)
72% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% Other
49.3% Obama, 49.6% McCain (formerly 52% McCain, 46% Obama)
This district is moved entirely within Pima county, shifting it a few points to the left. Obama lost here by about 1000 votes, and without McCain's homestate boost Obama definitely would have won here. This district is probably a tossup district rather than a Lean R district, and even without Giffords we have at least even odds of holding this.
9th District (Light Blue)
Representative: None (open)
69% White, 19% Hispanic, 11% Other
60% McCain, 39% Obama
This is the new district, composed of Pinal county plus Gilbert and a few other towns in Maricopa county.
This scenario assumes that the commission does not choose to create a new Hispanic district. I have played around with creating those districts and decided against it because:
1)The new district would only be plurality-Hispanic, not majority, and given differences in turnout rates between Hispanics and whites it might not even elect a Hispanic representative.
2)Drawing a new Hispanic district would probably mean that the 4th and/or the 7th would go under the 50% Hispanic mark as well, possibly endangering Grijalva.
Therefore it seems that a new Hispanic district isn't really worth it.
Edit: I forgot one thing while writing this; the Hopi reservation has traditionally been in a separate district from the Navajo reservation, due to long standing tribal disputes (which is what the odd tail on AZ-02 is now). Fixing this wouldn't really change anything overall.