Well, it's a long shot, as they say, but there's no harm in preparing for the future. Democrats in the Pima and Santa Cruz counties of southern Arizona are planning to petition their way onto the 2012 ballot as part of the "Start our State" campaign. The petition, if successful, would allow residents of the two counties to vote "yes" or "no" on a nonbinding resolution calling for the counties to be permitted to secede as the 51st state. (Of course, if Puerto Rico officially establishes the two-part plebiscite that Gov. Luis Fortuño has vowed to set up and Puerto Ricans vote for statehood, it could be a photo finish as to who gets in first and who gets in second.) After that, Phoenix and Washington both have to approve it, et cetera, and while observers seem to expect the petition will definitely gather enough signatures in Pima County, there's been a bit less activity in Santa Cruz County over the past few weeks after some prominent officials publicly expressed their interest in joining the campaign.
For the sake of this diary, I've assumed that all the stars line up the right way and both counties secede to form the state of Baja Arizona. Otherwise, this would be a pretty boring diary, since the combined population of the counties is about 1,028,000 and by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, that's just barely enough to warrant two CDs; without the much smaller Santa Cruz County, the population falls to under 1 million and Baja Arizona gets an at-large congressional district. My admittedly amateurish math also suggests that Arizona proper would lose just one district, which would probably piss the Republicans off, but as I will demonstrate, they have ways of taking revenge.
Let's start with the new state.
Baja Arizona would not be a huge state. For the sake of convenience and not making too much shit up, I haven't divided it into more counties; it retains the lines of larger Pima County and smaller Santa Cruz County. After all, Delaware only has three counties! It's not a hugely Democratic state, but both of these districts did go for then-Sen. Obama in 2008.
BA-01 (blue): This South Tucson/Santa Cruz County district includes the Tucson home of Rep. Raúl Grijalva, the incumbent Democratic congressman for AZ-07. It is the more Democratic of the two districts, owing to its larger Latino population; it is plurality-Latino and just barely misses out on being majority-Latino (49.5%) by total population, though in terms of VAP, its Latino proportion of the population is lower (43.6%) than white (47.5%). Grijalva's current district isn't much more Latino than this one, and he'd probably sail through a primary. The 2008 presidential race was a few points narrower here than it was in the current AZ-07, but Obama still carried this district by an 11-point margin. 43.9% McCain, 54.9% Obama. Likely Democratic.
BA-02 (green): Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who probably thought she had gotten through the fight of her life back in November 2010, lives in this district, which encompasses North Tucson, much of the Tucson suburbs, the Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation, and the Sonoran Desert wilderness of Pima County. It is unclear whether Giffords will be able to return to life as a congresswoman, though she seems to be recovering well and taking on gradually more of her official duties from her Houston rehabilitation center. If she's still serving by the time Baja Arizona secedes and draws its own districts, she will probably be able to walk to reelection here despite how close the presidential numbers are; Sen. McCain won her current AZ-08 in 2008 by six points, but his margin was likely padded by his home-state advantage, and Giffords overperformed Obama's numbers by better than seven points in 2008 and survived the dreaded Republican wave of 2010. 47.5% McCain, 51.4% Obama. Likely Democratic with Giffords, Lean Democratic without Giffords.
So, there's the happy fun part of this exercise. Democrats get a friendly new state, Tucson liberals and Mexicans in Santa Cruz County are liberated from the harsh regime of the staunchly Republican state government in Phoenix, and Grijalva and Giffords get seats they can probably win and more friendly control over redistricting. Unfortunately, while Arizona sloughs Grijalva and Giffords along with one of the most Democratic parts of the state, it only loses one of those two Democratic districts. That likely leaves Darth Brewer and Grand Moff Pearce with carte blanche to draw one of the most horrible Republican gerrymanders of a state Obama is practically even money to win in 2012 that can be imagined.
AZ-01 (blue): Now, the hope here will of course be that McCain's home-state advantage will have inflated his 2008 numbers so much that many of these districts, such as this one held by Republican Rep. Paul Gosar (flipping blue to red in 2010), will actually be quite competitive. But I'm cautious about that hypothesis. Republicans did very, very well in Arizona outside of the part that has seceded in this scenario last year, and I find it hard to imagine that McCain received enough of a boost that a Democrat like the ousted Ann Kirkpatrick would be favored to win a district like this. This northern Arizona district is anchored by Flagstaff, where Gosar lives, and includes Navajo and Hopi lands. If voter turnout was higher among Native Americans, that would be great news for the Democrats; unfortunately, they didn't seem interested in saving then-Rep. Kirkpatrick's bacon last year even though the Navajo Nation held its presidential election around the same time. I guess that's what the Democratic Party gets for being founded by President Andrew Jackson. 56.4% McCain, 42.3% Obama. Likely Republican.
AZ-02 (green): Unfortunately, the odious Republican Rep. Trent Franks has declined to make sure at least one of Arizona's many contemptible Republican congressmen crashes out of public office by January 2013, demurring from a primary bid against frontrunning colleague Rep. Jeff Flake to succeed Sen. Jon Kyl in the U.S. Senate. Franks lives in Peoria and operates his office in neighboring Glendale; both are included in this district, which really doesn't change much from its present form. It's perfectly suited to keep this creep in the House, just where Gov. Brewer wants him. 57.8% McCain, 40.9% Obama. Safe Republican.
AZ-03 (purple): There's a new idiot in the House this year, and his name is Rep. Ben Quayle, Republican of Phoenix. Due to his lack of seniority and the fact that he's a moron who would have never gotten the Republican nomination if Arizona had a primary runoff system, I figure he's the most disposable Republican in Congress, and he's summarily been awarded the weakest of the Republican districts. Quayle may well be a prime target for Democrats in a district like this, but if he's beaten by a competent conservative in the primary, the race is a lot tougher. And in fact, that competent conservative's name may well be Republican Rep. David Schweikert, whose home is (I believe) drawn into this district but may choose to run as the incumbent in AZ-05 instead. 54% McCain, 44.9% Obama. Tossup/Tilt Republican with Quayle, Lean Republican with Schweikert.
AZ-04 (red): The Democratic vote sink par excellence in Arizona, this district doubles as the Latino-majority district (55.8%, though rather a strong VAP plurality at 49.2%) required by the VRA. Democratic Rep. Ed Pastor would have no trouble holding this seat down. 37.6% McCain, 61.1% Obama. Safe Democratic.
AZ-05 (yellow): You know, you would think that a district in the heart of a major urbanized area would be pretty friendly to Democrats. Unfortunately, Maricopa County is not your typical urbanized area, and this district is loaded with disgustingly Republican suburbs to color it an unpleasant shade of red. Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills, which was added to AZ-03 to better distribute all of the insanely many Republican voters living in Maricopa County, but he could well run here instead of primarying the weak, foolish Ben Quayle. As an open seat, it's a prospective Democratic target, but they'd have to be having a hell of a year. Obama lost here by a double-digit margin. 55.6% McCain, 43.2% Obama. Likely Republican.
AZ-06 (teal): Yet another yucky suburban Maricopa County district, this one is currently represented by departing Rep. Flake, who is off to seek greener pastures in either the Senate or a Gabby Giffords- or Terry Goddard-induced early retirement. I believe Matt Salmon, a former Republican congressman who has expressed his interest in succeeding Flake, lives in the part of Mesa included in this district. Salmon or any other Republican could probably hold this district fairly comfortably. 56.6% McCain, 42.3% Obama. Likely Republican.
AZ-07 (orange): With Giffords, the current representative of Cochise County, safely tucked away in light-blue Baja Arizona, the Arizona Republicans get a grand opportunity to turn southeastern Arizona into a hellscape of hard-boiled conservatism. This renumbered district is the most Republican in the state. I don't really know the bench in this part of Arizona, but nearly any Republican could run here and probably win. 61.6% McCain, 37.2% Obama. Safe Republican.
AZ-08 (slate blue): And this is what remains, the result of Grijalva and many of his Democratic constituents up and seceding from Arizona. It's another open seat for Republicans to fill, perhaps with border-hawkish Yuma Mayor Alan Krieger. In terms of total population, it's actually a narrow minority-majority district (47.1% white, 41% Latino), though it rises to white-majority in VAP (52.8% white, 35.9% Latino), but it leans pretty hard to the right. Democrats could compete here, but they'd need a very good cycle. 56.7% McCain, 42.3% Obama. Likely Republican.
So, there you have it: the results of a two-county Baja Arizona secession, which is probably not going to happen but just might. If it does, hey, all this just might happen.