Helen Cooper, writes and interesting article in this morning’s NYT, entitled, Obama and Netanyahu Are Facing A Turning Point which provides a succinct, and gripping account of tense exchanges, and the back-in-forth posturing of President Obama, and Secretary of State Clinton with Prime Minister Netanyahu, which is an excellent and quick read.
http://www.nytimes.com/...
working link
Humorously, Secretary of State Clinton gets to take the famous "3:00 am" phone call for President Obama, except that in this case it was early this morning prior to the Presidents speech on the middle east.
WASHINGTON — As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel heads to the White House on Friday for the seventh meeting since President Obama took office, the two men are facing a turning point in a relationship that has never been warm. By all accounts, they do not trust each other. President Obama has told aides and allies that he does not believe that Mr. Netanyahu will ever be willing to make the kind of big concessions that will lead to a peace deal.
For his part, Mr. Netanyahu has complained that Mr. Obama has pushed Israel too far — a point driven home during a furious phone call with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday morning, just hours before Mr. Obama’s speech, during which the prime minister reacted angrily to the president’s plan to endorse Israel’s pre-1967 borders for a future Palestinian state.
Mr. Obama did not back down. But the last-minute furor highlights the discord as they head into what one Israeli official described as a “train wreck” coming their way: a United Nations General Assembly vote on Palestinian statehood in September.
Mr. Netanyahu, his close associates say, desperately wants Mr. Obama to use the diplomatic muscle of the United States to protect Israel from the vote, not only by vetoing it in the Security Council, but also by leaning hard on America’s European allies to get them to reject it as well.
We also learn in this article that President Obama has reassured Netanyahu that the US will use our Veto power in the UN Security Council to over-ride an expected approval of recognition of the Palestinian State. Although, many here, seem to dispute the legality, or effectivenes of such a move.
Mr. Obama has indicated that he will certainly do the first. But it remains unclear how far Mr. Obama can go to persuade Britain, France and other American allies to join the United States in rejecting the move, particularly as long as Mr. Netanyahu continues to resist endorsing the pre-1967 lines.
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But the easing of tensions ended this spring when, Israeli and American officials said, Mr. Netanyahu got wind of Mr. Obama’s plans to make a major address on the Middle East, and alerted Republican leaders that he would like to address a joint meeting of Congress. That move was widely interpreted as an attempt to get out in front of Mr. Obama, by presenting an Israeli peace proposal that, while short of what the Palestinians want, would box in the president. House Speaker John A. Boehner issued the invitation, for late May.
So White House officials timed Mr. Obama’s speech on Thursday to make sure he went first.
“You get so many reports that Bibi is playing politics in your backyard that eventually you’ve got to draw the conclusion that there’s nothing there to work with with this guy,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator who is now a fellow with the New American Foundation, referring to Mr. Netanyahu by his nickname. Administration officials said that they were determined not to allow Mr. Netanyahu to get out in front of Mr. Obama.
After the speech, Prime Minister Netanyahu sharply rejected our President's, "language
about the pre-1967 borders during Friday’s meeting." And, elsewhere Alan Dershowitz faults the president for mentioning the 1967 borders, but not directly tying this to giving up the right of return, which he criticized Obama for not mentioning.
But, back to the issue of the proposed unilateral Palestinian Declaration of Independence planned for September in the UN General Assembly, which is of increasing concern for Netanyahu, and his Likud-Shas coalition, as described in the NYT.
But both men will have to manage any additional irritation as they prepare for the United Nations vote that is headed their way, American and Israeli officials said. Neither side wants to see an overwhelmingly lopsided United Nations vote for Palestinian statehood, with Britain, France and Germany joining the rest of the world and isolating Israel further, with only the United States and a few others voting against it.
“I think the Europeans are sliding” toward voting for Palestinian statehood “because they don’t see a peace strategy coming out,” said David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
He said that the two leaders had to figure out a way to work together to stop a United Nations vote that could harm both the United States and Israel. “If they are incapable of being able to translate a common interest into a common strategy, then it’s a very sad commentary on both countries,” Mr. Makovsky said.
CNN is reporting that analyst Aaron David Miller says Obama's language is going to make this morning's meeting with Netanyahu a disaster, that the Israelis are furious, and he can't understand why President Obama would pick this fight with Netanyahu, on the eve of his visit.
And they report that Mitt Romney says Obama has thrown "Israel under the bus."
But, I think what these folks are missing is that President Obama has decided that Netanyahu has no interest in peace at this time, and has viewed delay as an advantage to Israel, allowing him to expand settlements and establish facts-on-the-ground. But, this makes peace for the Palestinians impossible.
So, President Obama seems to have accepted Hillary Clinton's position, and will try to thread the needle of putting the maximum pressure on Netanyahu, while still appearing to accept his basic position.
But, then set up the Europeans to do the real nut crunch, and force Netanyahu to yield on the border issues, the division of Jerusalem, and return to the negotiating table prior to September, by rapidly escalating the threat that if Netanyahu does not return to the negotiating table, the UN will accept Palestine as a member, thereby reversing the advantage of time delay from Israel to the Palestinians.
The Israeli bargaining position will rapidly diminish on issues such as keeping IDF troops in the Jordan Valley, control of the airspace, shipping lanes, and electro-magnetic spectrum, demilitarization, on all the other rights Palestine would be entitled to immediately as a sovereign state and full member of the UN.
This is what Makovski seems to miss. He assumes that President Obama is united with Netanyahu in wanting to undermine this UN initiative. But, while Obama said the words that a unilateral declaration of independence would not advance the peace process, notice how incredbly advantageous it is for Obama to let the Europeans do the dirty work, of escalating the pressure on Netanyahu.
So, yes, Netanyahu, and his staff are furious, as this may indicate that Hillary Clinton, and the State Department has won the internal battle with Joe Biden, and the National Security Staff, over how supportive to be to the Palestinian overture.
As a tool to pressure Netanyahu back to the negotiating table.
If this analysis is correct, President Obama will now let the Europeans do the real crunch, as they have more political latitude. But, we've heard surprisingly little comment from across the Atlantic indicating, perhaps, indicating that the internal White House debate was still intense until the very last minute.
Watch carefully for reaction from Europe throughout the day today, as Hillary gets on the phone, and clues our allies into what our new position seems to be.
I realize I'm going way out on a limb, here, however, I invite you to do the same, because this is international hard ball politics as exciting and skillful as it gets.
However, you view it, by mid afternoon today, I predict everyone who, today, were disappointed that President Obama's speech offered nothing new, will see it much differently. This will seem dramatic and highly consequential, as the complicated posturing behind the scenes becomes more apparent.
And, we will see an astonishing contrast, with Mitt Romney's clueless comment. What we may discover is that President Obama has decided to save Israel, by throwing Netanyahu under the bus.
And, therein lies a contrast between the viewpoint of a brillant and courageous strategist, like President Obama, and a sad businesman like Romney who doesn't even understand the difference between Isreal's best interest, the national security interests of the United States, and Prime Minister's Netanyahu tired and obsolete obstructionism.
Kadima leader, Livni, made similar statements about Netanyahu's lack of leadership earlier in the week, after his trial run in the Knesset.
Personally, I am strongly supportive of Israel, but more from the J-Street perspective, than the AIPAC perspective. So I was encouraged to read Another American's report of highly credible pro-Israel, American Jews, and progressive Democrats showing the courage to support the Palestinian Declaration of Independence.
I see these developments as, perhaps, the only viable way towards peace at this juncture. Although, I am open minded and eager to hear responses from anyone, even if you disagree.
So I view these developments with optimism, as of only yesterday I had concluded that President Obama had decided to punt these issues, until after the 2012 elections.
Maybe President Obama is finally feeling his oats, after his victorious resolution of the Osama Bin Laden issue?
I invite you all to use this diary as an open thread, to discuss these, or any other issues related to achieving a successful middle east peace, through a two-state solution.
I have to run out and get a "dogs breakfast" at MacDonalds but, I'll be back soon.
Today will be an exciting day.