Everywhere I look, people are dismissing the idea that Sarah Palin is running. I don't know what that position is based on, though the ever-rising degree of certitude in the progressive Internets is scaring me.
A lot of people predicted that Donald Trump wasn't really running, and they were right. He stuck his toes in the water mostly as a publicity stunt. So, everyone smugly satisfied with their predictive powers extrapolated the situation to Palin.
But all of the objective signs point to a run, including the post-Giffords silence. Ask yourself why someone who is just interested in being a pundit would bother shutting up after that. It never seems to matter what Limbaugh, Beck, Coulter, Savage, or any of those folks say. They're back the next day with an even more outrageous statement. So, if that's your best argument, let's go back over the facts.
Her husband told donors before the 2008 election to “hold [their] powder" for 2012. This was part of the master plan to make it look like she was running for president just to get a Fox News gig? (Which she can have anyway?)
Then there are the latest polls. She's easily in the top tier of the candidates. She's within the margin of error of lead and everyone already knows what she's about. That's solid support. Everyone else is just looking.
And then there's the movie set to open.... in Iowa. You know. The first caucus state... And the leather motorcycle chick shtick today, followed up by a bus tour.
All of the objective evidence points towards her running. Sure, some "plot" could be at work here, but this is at least enough to shift the burden of proof to those who are so certain she's not in to tell us why. Is there an article quoting a Palin insider? Anything? Bueller.... Bueller...
No. There are a few strange conceits. One is because she's not rich she'll want the money. Is any of this going to keep her from getting even more money later? Another one is that the Republicans are too sinister and always annoint their person. Really? They're not doing a very good job of that lately. Their race is a zoo.
Finally, there is the liberal conceit coupled with the liberal over-fear of the GOP's electoral savvy that she will lose so they won't run her. The first part ignores the history of the last three two term Republican presidents, all of whom were mocked and not taken seriously, i.e. Bush II, Reagan, and Nixon.
Nixon is a particularly apt model for Palin. She seems very Nixonian to me. We don't know what she really thinks very often, but she's very good at giving voice to a sort of white middle class id that feels so put upon by society. The resentment. The kind of people Rick Perlstein called the "orthogonians" in his second magnum opus, Nixonland.
Second, even if she can't win, that doesn't mean she won't be nominated. The modern GOP is the phoenix that has risen from the ashes of the Goldwater campaign.
This doesn't mean that every rank-and-file Republican from coast to coast will be willing to do a kamikaze run like that, especially given how much they hate Obama.
I'll be looking in the Vancouver yellow pages for an immigration attorney in Canada if that woman becomes President. Or something. I won't like it. I can't stand her. But I refuse to just dismiss that she's even running for office based on a bunch of assumptions.
This is the reality based community, right?
UPDATE: The Guardian FTW:
Is Sarah Palin going to run for the presidency in 2012? There are two big clues: everything she says and everything she does.
UPDATE 2: I'm sure that people who told me I'm wrong here will get endless joy out of it if she doesn't run after all. And by "not running" we mean she doesn't announce and doesn't get on the ballot or anything like that. As if the big "official announcement" matters.
What I say is: she is already running. She is already doing things to move the ball towards being president. If you can't see that, I can't help you. This bus tour, the promotional infomercial movie through early caucus and primary states are exactly what you do to run for President at this point. The fact that she hasn't announced might have something to do with the fact that everyone knows who she is already.
If she backs out later, fine. She backs out. But to just act like she's "not running" without explanation contradicts what she's doing.