This isn't going to be a long diary at all, I just wanted to let those of you who will still be in Minneapolis tomorrow either visiting, touring or going back home know that there is a real chance for a tornado outbreak in the area. It looks like the worst threat will be south of Minneapolis right now, but the city is just on the edge of the risk, which is enough to make you stay alert.
Here is the SPC outlook for tomorrow, the warmer colors indicate higher risk for severe weather. They won't release the probabilities for tornadoes, hail, and wind until early tomorrow morning, but they're confident that there's going to be a tornado outbreak across parts of Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa.
Click the image to enlarge it in a new window.
According to the map, MSP is in the 30% risk for severe weather, which is pretty significant seeing that 2% is worrisome. Here's what the SPC says (emphasis mine):
THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND WITH INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
If you're staying or living in Minneapolis, make a plan now to prepare to seek shelter if one of these potentially long-lived tornadoes threatens the area. If you're traveling out of MSP tomorrow, have a plan in place in case your flight is delayed or cancelled.
I'll have a severe weather liveblog tomorrow afternoon when the action gets going. Stay safe.