Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/25-27, Texas voters, 1/14-16 in parens):
John Sharp (D): 37 (31)
David Dewhurst (R): 43 (49)
Undecided: 19 (19)
John Sharp (D): 38 (30)
Tom Leppert (R): 39 (42)
Undecided: 23 (28)
John Sharp (D): 36
Ted Cruz (R): 40
Undecided: 25
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 37
David Dewhurst (R): 45
Undecided: 18
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 35
Tom Leppert (R): 38
Undecided: 27
Ricardo Sanchez (D): 32
Ted Cruz (R): 41
Undecided: 27
Tommy Lee Jones (D): 39
David Dewhurst (R): 43
Undecided: 18
Tommy Lee Jones (D): 37
Tom Leppert (R): 38
Undecided: 26
Tommy Lee Jones (D): 38
Ted Cruz (R): 37
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±3.5%)
This is PPP's first poll in Texas since January, and the Republican field has narrowed quite a bit. With redistricting complete, two dudes named Williams (Roger and Michael) have decided to drop down to run for the same House seat. Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz has inherited the teabagger mantle, and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst looks finally set to get in, which means he'll suck up a lot of the remaining oxygen in the GOP primary. Between the two of them and ex-Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, I wouldn't expect this field to get much bigger (though never underestimate a politician's vanity and naivety).
On the Democratic side, the only announced candidate is retired Gen. Ricardo Sanchez. Actor Tommy Lee Jones is, as Tom Jensen says, a pipe dream, though from what I understand, former Comptroller John Sharp is still considering the race. And his numbers are quite interesting, on account of the trendlines. Nothing really changed between now and January that I can see - Sharp's favorables barely budged, and the D-R-I sample composition isn't meaningfully different. Yet the gaps between Sharp and both Dewhurst and Leppert closed considerably.
What seems to have happened is that Democrats are cottoning to their candidates more, while Republicans seem to be expressing some more doubts. Dewhurst pulled members of his own party at an 87-5 clip in January, while Sharp was at just 70-6. This time, it's almost equal, with Dewhurst at 79-6 and Sharp at 75-8. Not monster changes, but enough to make the race closer.
The question, of course, is whether a contest which looks close now, when everyone is in the high 30s and low 40s, can stay close when name rec improves. I'm not particularly optimistic right now, given how monstrously expensive Texas is, and how all our big statewide hopes have guttered out since... well... forever, basically. But this poll is nonetheless pretty interesting, and at the very least, TX-Sen may well be worth watching this cycle.
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