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Senate:
• AZ-Sen, AZ-08: Mark Kelly, astronaut and husband of Rep. Gabby Giffords, told reporters last week that he will not seek office — at least for now. He said his main focus is his wife's recovery, though he didn't rule out a possible run some day in the future.
• TX-Sen: A source tells Dave Catanese that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is planning to join the GOP field on July 18, or perhaps sooner.
• WI-Sen: A pretty groan-worthy comment from Dem Rep. Ron Kind, who previously said he'd wait to decide on a Senate run until after the recall elections are concluded: "It may not be sexy being a moderate centrist, but I don't think that we need more people on the far right or the far left." On one level, this sort of thing barely registers, since the only people paying attention right now are (a) activists like us (whose momentary annoyance doesn't matter to Kind) and (b) political journalists (whom Kind obviously hopes will reinforce his desired self-narrative about his "centrist" credentials). But the problem I have with remarks like this is that they potentially undermine our party's nominee if it winds up being someone with a decidedly more liberal profile, such as Kind's fellow Rep. Tammy Baldwin. However, I'm flattered that he thinks we're sexy!
Gubernatorial:
• MT-Gov: Two interesting tea leaves suggest that AG Steve Bullock may indeed be gearing up for a gubernatorial run (as many Democrats hope). Jesse Laslovich, a former state Rep. and assistant AG who now works for the state Auditor's office, says he plans to run for Attorney General himself… but has no interest in a contested primary fight against Bullock. Meanwhile, Bullock just upped the donation limit on his website from $600 to $1200 — an important distinction, since only gov candidates can raise the larger amount (AG candidates are limited to the smaller sum). His spokesperson would only say that Bullock is "exploring his options." A recent PPP poll showed the race surprisingly competitive if Bullock got in.
House:
• CA-36: Dave Catanese has a tally of the number of early ballots from the L.A. County registrar's office for the special election:
Democratic/Green: 14,035
Republican/Libertarian: 13,343
Non-affiliated: 5,512
That's unwelcome news for Democrat Janice Hahn, though a spokesman claims that 70% of the unaffiliateds are Democratic primary voters.
• CA-Riverside-Moreno Valley: Riverside Community College Board trustee Mark Takano became the first Democrat to announce plans to run in this new district, which, as currently configured, is majority Hispanic. There's no incumbent in this seat, but two Republicans are already running: Assemblyman Jeff Miller and Riverside County Supervisor John Tavaglione. Takano ran against GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in what was then the new CA-43 in 1992, losing by just 500 votes. He got crushed in a rematch the following cycle, during the massive GOP wave of 1994.
• IL-08: While Raja Krishnamoorthi has been trying to ward her off with his impressive fundraising (his campaign is claiming a $400K haul in just a few weeks), Tammy Duckworth still seems interested in making a go at the Democratic nomination in this new seat. A consultant of hers says she's reaching out to folks in the district to gauge a possible run.
• IL-17: The Democratic field is starting to take shape, with East Moline Alderman Cheri Bustos saying she's joining the race and activist Porter McNeil saying he'd stay out. State Sen. Dave Koehler and Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp are already running, and state Rep. Mike Boland is considering.
• MT-AL: What happens to a poll demurred? Every matchup in PPP's latest in the Montana open-seat House race has 40% undecideds, so click through if you're dying to know. While on balance you have to think this favors the GOP, I wonder if we could somehow squeak out this seat with strong upticket campaigns for governor and Senate.
• NC-11: Some odd comments from Rep. Heath Shuler's spokesperson, responding to rumors that his boss might take a job as the University of Tennessee's athletic director. Andrew Whelan said Shuler "is not seeking the A.D. spot and hasn't been offered the A.D. spot," but as Elizabeth Bewley of Gannett notes, he "didn't expressly deny" that Shuler is thinking about the position. Whelan went on to say that "the congressman is looking forward to his re-election in 2012. He is running for Congress," and added that Shuler's been doing a bunch of fundraisers lately. So who knows?
NY-16 in the 1970s
(click for full Brooklyn map)
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NY-09: As expected, Gov. Andrew Cuomo set the special election for ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner's seat for Sept. 13, the same day as primaries for lesser offices throughout the state. Maggie Haberman also says that Rep. Joe Crowley will decide on the Democratic nominee by mid-week.
And it's sounding like that person could very well wind up being ex-Rep. Liz Holtzman, a name which David Jarman suggested here before it ever appeared in the tradmed. Holtzman apparently reached out to Crowley after Weiner's resignation, and Chris Bragg of City Hall News says his sources call her a "top contender." She's almost perfect for the job: She represented a good swath of the current 9th when she served in Congress back in the `70s in the old 16th (you can see a map of her district to the right); she's Jewish; and she's just shy of 70 years old, so she fits the mold of "elder statesman who can win the race but won't seek a second term."
Other Races:
• AL Sup. Ct.: This is a major surprise: Sue Bell Cobb, the only Democrat on the Alabama Supreme Court (and one of only two Dems to hold statewide office) announced that she would resign later this summer, citing nothing more compelling than the usual "spend time with my family" business. Cobb was only elected to her first term in 2006 and wasn't up again until 2013; her untimely move gives Gov. Robert Bentley a free shot at appointing a Republican replacement. Cobb had been discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, but this decision will likely seriously piss off her main backers, the trial lawyers, who spent a ton of money on her behalf five years ago.
Grab Bag:
• Dark Money: The FEC ruled that candidates cannot solicit soft money (i.e., unlimited contributions) for super PACs, though super PACs can still raise such sums. Candidates are limited to asking for $5,000 donations. I'm sure this rule will be observed very sternly.
• WATN?: Steve Novick, a contender for the 2008 Democratic OR-Sen nomination ultimately won by Jeff Merkley (who then beat Sen. Gordon Smith in the general), is running for city council in Portland.
Redistricting Roundup:
• Georgia: Legislators are saying they'll make draft maps available to the public before the special session on redistricting commences on August 15. Committees will begin work this month.
• North Carolina: It's Redoomsday for Democrats: Last Friday, Republicans unveiled their new map for the Tarheel state, putting three if not four Democrats in brutal districts. Click the link for our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections.
• South Carolina: I'm going to call it a schadenmander: As you probably know, despite holding the majority in both the state House and Senate, South Carolina Republicans have completely lost control of the redistricting process. Rebel GOPers have sided with Democrats in an attempt to run the clock out and force federal judges to draw brand new maps. (If you want to enjoy seeing Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell spazz about this reversal of fortune, click here.) Republicans aren't completely giving up, though, and say they plan to try again when the legislature reconvenes on July 26.