Oops.
Good thing the Washington Post is around to remind us of
flawed Beltway thinking.
After three eventful days — beginning with Thursday’s lively debate in Ames, Iowa, and running through Perry’s formal declaration of his candidacy, Bachmann’s victory in the Ames Straw Poll and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty’s decision to drop out of the race — the Republican Party is now looking at a nomination battle that is far different from the one envisioned at the beginning of the year.
Envisioned by whom? The Beltway know-nothings? The jokers at the National Review? Certainly not us.
Michele Bachmann will be the GOP nominee.
That was back on June 27. Of course, things have changed a bit with the appearance of secessionist Gov. Rick Perry. But have they changed enough to shake me from my belief that Bachmann will be the nominee? Nope. The Beltway conservative establishment may rally around Perry as an "acceptable" version of Bachmann (he has a penis), but they're not calling the shots.
From my original analysis:
We start off with the Iowa caucus on January 3. Now caucuses are tailor made for the most socially conservative candidates, as it is those activists who dominate these low-voter turnout affairs. In 2008, a banner year for caucus turnout, just 114,000 Republicans turned out. Currently, there are about 610K (PDF) registered Republicans in Iowa, out of 2.1 million registered voters in the state. In other words, a minority of a minority make the calls. And living in next-door Minnesota, Bachmann is about as local as you can get with that crowd of crazies. Iowa is hers.
This weekend, at the first big test in Iowa (the Ames Straw Poll):
Michele Bachmann: 4823
Ron Paul: 4671
Tim Pawlenty: 2293
Rick Santorum: 1657
Herman Cain: 1456
Rick Perry: 718 (write-in)
Mitt Romney: 567
Newt Gingrich: 385
Jon Huntsman: 69
Thad McCotter: 35
Total votes cast: 16,892
Bachmann and Paul? Hilarious! That's the GOP establishment's biggest nightmare.
Nothing in those results suggests that Bachmann won't win Iowa. In fact, there's enough crazy in those results to suggest that Bachmann could build her lead if she consolidates the anti-establishment vote ahead of the caucuses. She's about to come under fierce fire from all corners of that establishment (like this), which should only help her consolidate that vote.
Now it's true that Perry is every bit as crazy as Bachmann, and possibly even dumber. Normally, that should pay huge dividends with GOP primary voters. But I'll stick with my prediction—the tea party crowds are fiercely anti-establishment, and Perry belongs to the establishment.
So where is his opening? Not Iowa, not Nevada (more caucuses), and not South Carolina. It'll have to be New Hampshire in Romney's back yard. Doable? Sure. But Bachmann's path in the early states is much cleaner.
So I'm sticking with my early call.
(National Review cover via.)