Hi fellow Kossacks. I feel very fortunate to have been offered an accepted a full time position with benefits that starts this morning. I have been struggling mightily for some time now and have only made it to this point because of the compassion of a very kind person. I am a Texan. I am grateful for the position I just received.
However, I am another example of what is wrong with Governor Rick Perry's Texas economy. Many people are smarter than I am. Many people went to better schools than I did, ivy league schools and the like. Still, I do have 2 bachelor's degrees and a master's degree in mathematics. I am 2 years away from my ph.d. . Like many other Texans, I am bilingual in Spanish. I am certified to teach (in Texas): mathematics 4-12, ESL (all levels) and bilingual education 4-8. Rick Perry believes, however, in tax cuts. He does not believe in education. Texas is losing about 100,000 education jobs, most of them teaching jobs, due to Rick Perry's misplaced priorities. My new job is in education, but it is at less than half the pay of a teacher. The vast majority of Rick Perry's jobs that were created are in the public sector, but he has no intention of keeping them. Because Texas is a right to work state (read anti middle class and anti union), we find that Texas has more jobs at minimum wage than just about any other state in the Union which Rick wants to leave.
In other words, my situation is one of many in Texas: My credentials and education and experience should result in a job that pays twice what I now will make. And for some time prior to this, I was working at whatever job I could get, minimum wage or not, manual labor or not. A great many of us in Texas are underemployed and underpaid. Yet, Texas is only at the middle of the class in unemployment rate. And if you are not fortunate enough to be employed, there is virtually no safety net here (percentage of uninsured children here is higher than anywhere else in the country).
This brings me to:
The Republican Presidential Primary.
It is my belief that Governor Rick Perry's lead in the polls (yes they are national, but they reflect his broad strength and they reflect trends) is not transient. He has staying power and he is here to stay. Yes, he will make gaffe after gaffe and make extreme statement after extreme statement. However, the Republican primary voter either (1) never hears about it (2) agrees with it and (3) only watches Fixed Noise Propaganda. So, Richard will never be punished for these missteps. It is my hope and belief that these will cost him dearly in the general election. With the economy still struggling, at best, these missteps are likely to be all that prevent us from a third term of George W Bush. Due to the bad economy, neither Perry nor Romney will be easy to beat, despite their weaknesses in policy positions and political weakness (Rachel was right that Mittens is bad with people and Mr. Goodhair is so extreme and prone to gaffes).
Without further ado:
February 6 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[67]
February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[68]
February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
February 28 - Confirmed date of the South Carolina primary
March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.
Notice that states after April 1 are not not delegate take all now, it depends upon
the state.
states that elect delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[55] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 103–41.[56]
^ "SeeThe Rules of the Republican Party, Rule 10(d)". Republican Party.
^ Associated Press (August 6, 2010) "GOP Approves Changes To 2012 Primary Calendar", The Huffington Post. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
February 6: Iowa - Perry wins, Bachman second, Ron Paul third, Mittens fourth
Governor Perry is extreme enough to appeal to the rabidly conservative Iowa Republican Primary voter and has more governing experience (in terms of length of service and positions held) than Bachman. He appears (but only appears) to have a good economic argument. So, he beats Bachman by double digits.
February 14 New Hampshire - Mittens wins, Perry second,
Mittens is counting on this. He will win it. His supporters will need to see
a decisive victory. I don't know that he gets that here. The media will say that the back door should have given him more of a win than he got. So, he will be said to not meet expectations. This will be the media narrative.
February 18 Nevada- Perry wins, Bachman second. This follows New Hampshire so quickly that Mitt Romney loses any momentum that he had.
South Carolina - Perry wins handily, Bachman a distant second, Romney is not even close. And now Governor Perry will be in a dominant position. Bachman will be seen to be unelectable (a representative who is famous for her outlandish views). It will hurt her that she only represents a district while Governor Perry has governed one of the biggest states in the country with seemingly great results.
Even though the delegate will be awarded proportionally, Governor Perry's lead will be decisive, not because of the math but because of his relative strength and the breadth of his appeal to Republican primary voters as compared to the others.
Perry will also win Florida big. Jeb said that neither he nor George W have any antipathy towards him.
And now we are now done. Perry can't be beat.
Perry nominates Bachman or Rubio for his veep position.
Obama beats Perry but this is a much closer election. Obama retains New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. He doesn't win North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Missouri or Florida. It is probably 51. % to 48 % , 1 % going to third party perhaps. Electorally, he hits 301 electoral votes, surprisingly high given the economy.
It will be close in New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio. I think Perry hemorrhages his Hispanic support as he proceeds through the Republican primary and that hurts him in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. The GOP brand is already damaged among Hispanic voters. If President Obama loses Ohio and Colorado, but still wins New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada, then he wins 274 to 264.
Now, onto the US Senate.
33 US Senate seats are up for grabs.
6 Democratic Senators are retiring and only 2 Republican Senators are retiring.
17 Democratic (or Independent Senators who caucus with Democratic Senators) Senators are facing reelection.
8 Republican Senators are facing reelection.
Connecticut leans Democratic but Chris Shays would be a dangerous Republican opponent since he is moderate.
North Dakota switches Republican after we lose Kent Conrad
Virginia stays blue with Tim Kaine winning
Wisconsin likely stays blue. for the obvious reasons we see recently !
McCaskill and Tester both win tight races.
Ben Nelson loses.
Sherrod Brown wins.
Joe Manchin wins.
That leaves us losing at least 2 seats, and probably 1 other close race.
So, let's say that we lose 3 seats there.
Olympia Snowe is just unbeatable.
Scott Brown cannot beat Elizabeth Warren.
Dean Heller probably loses in Nevada.
That has them losing 2 seats.
Still, suppose that they only lose 1.
Then, they gain 2 seats. Then, the number of Senators who caucus with our Democratic Party will be 51 and the number of Republican Senators will be 49.
And we have an excellent chance to retake the House.
In my opinion, although we are better off having a DINO rather than a rabid Republican, the Senators that we lose are not our best ones: Conrad, Lieberman, Nelson.