David Weprin
Siena (PDF). 9/6-8. Likely voters. MoE ±3.3% (
8/3-8 (PDF) results):
David Weprin (D): 44 (48)
Robert Turner (R): 50 (42)
Don't know/no opinion: 6 (9)
Last month, when Siena showed Weprin up by just six, David Nir wrote that "These numbers are certainly closer than I would have expected." Since then, the race has gone from closer-than-expected to upside-down of what we would have expected. Weprin continues to struggle to consolidate the Democratic vote, drawing just 63% of Democrats, a bare increase over last month's 61%.
The DCCC is going in with a sizable independent expenditure, and this poll had already been in the field for several days when Turner made his epic “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like” gaffe, but there's no question that with four days to go and Turner up six, this is going to be uncomfortable.