We've finally reached the end of Redistricting Commission saga, on Monday the Commission finally passed the final maps on a 8-3 vote (3 of 5 Republicans voting no). The final maps that were approved were the "Compromise" maps produced by unaffiliated Chairman Mario Carrera.
Carrera's stated goal was to produce as many competitive districts as possible and increasing the number of Hispanic influence districts (30% or more). He seems to have achieved both, as his map has more competitive and more Hispanic districts than either the Democratic or Republican maps did.
Since the House map was the more controversial map throughout the process, I decided to start there again. Here is what the new map submitted to the Colorado Supreme Court for Approval looks like:
Once again, I used Bennet v. Buck numbers as this was the most even race the state has had in recent memory and should be the Democratic baseline for the near future, in some cases down ballot registration numbers play a bigger role, but it should at least illustrate the shifts in the districts. New numbers first, old numbers in parentheses. I tried to track the district number changes so hopefully it won't be too confusing.
Statewide:
Denver:
HD1 - Labuda (D) - 56%-38% (55%-39%) This district remains the south-west Denver district, but picks up Latino areas from HD2 to become Hispanic Majority.
HD2 - Ferrandino (D) - 72%-23% (76%-18%) This district loses all of it's west-side Latino areas and picks up the DU area from HD3, Capitol Hill from HD5 and Wash Park from HD6 to become a solidly white liberal (and pretty gay) district. This differed from the Democratic maps in taking out all of the west side instead of most.
HD3 - OPEN (D) - 60%-35% (61-34%) Formerly HD9, this district remains Democratic and centered on south-east Denver.
HD4 - Pabon (D) - 76%-18% (76-19%) Little change, grows to add population. Hispanic Majority.
HD5 - Duran (D) - 75%-19% (77-18%) Loses much of Capitol Hill, while picking up all of the Hispanic territory that belonged to HD2, making it Hispanic Majority. Neither the R or D maps did that.
HD6 - Court (D) - 68%-28% (67%-29%) Losing turf to the south-west, this district becomes very East and Lowry centered.
HD7 - Williams (D) - 78%-18% (78%-19%) Shrinks for population growth in Stapleton, but 40% Hispanic and 30% Black, it remains a minority-dominated district.
HD8 - McCann (D) - 83%-13% (84%-13%) Takes in Cheesman Park and northern East Colfax, this district is majority white, but still most Democratic in the State.
Broomfield County:
HD9 - Beezley (R) - 52%-42% (50-45%) A narrow victory for Republicans in 2010, this district moved to the right under the Republican maps, taking in Erie. Instead, Carrera went with the Democratic version, taking in parts of Lafayette and Superior. This was formerly HD33.
Boulder County:
HD10 - Hullinghorst (D) - 74%-22% (75%-21%) Going with the Democratic version instead of the Republican version, this district takes in most of Boulder, but also Rep. Hullinghorst's home in Gunbarrel as well as Niwot.
HD11 - Gardner (D) - 51%-42% (59%-36%) This district was still made more competitive than under the previous map, though not as much as Republicans attempted, it includes almost all of Longmont, keeping the core intact. One of the new tossup districts
HD12 - OPEN (D) - 56%-39% (64%-30%) This Louisville-vased district now goes into Weld county to take in all of Erie, Frederick, Dacono, and Firestone. Despite this venture into Republican territory, this district remains Democratic.
HD13 - Levy (D) - 76%-20% (70-25%) This district loses Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties to take in more of Boulder than it did previously, a radical change from any other version of this district.
El Paso County:
HD14 - Joshi (R) - 28%-67% (30%-65%) Shrinks for population growth, still Republican-dominated district.
HD15 - Waller (R) - 31%-64% (30%-63%) This district is radically different than in any other version, it becomes the strictly north-east Colorado Springs district.
HD16 - OPEN (R) - 35%-60% (37%-63%) A radical change from it's previous incarnation, this district becomes the north-west Colorado Springs district, remaining as Republican as before.
HD17 - Barker (R) - 46%-46% (46%-45%) The first of the swing districts in El Paso County, this district loses Fort Carson and adds parts of the old HD18, remaining at about the same balance as before. With a strong candidate this district could flip back to the Democrats as it did in 2008 with a much weaker candidate.
HD18 - Lee (D) - 52%-42% (55-29%) The most Democratic district in El Paso County needed to add population, unlike in the Democratic maps, this both added Dem-trending territory to the north-west as well as some Republican-leaning turf from the Broadmoor. As far as Colorado Springs Republicans go, those added are the most reasonable, so Lee should have more than a fighting chance here.
HD19 - Looper (R) - 28%-64% (33%-59%) Takes in much more of Colorado Springs than it did previously, still solidly Republican.
HD20 - Stephens (R) - 23%-73% (24%-72%) Little change, most Republican district in the State.
HD21 - Gardner (R) - 37%-57% (36%-59%) This district moves from containing north-west and south-west Colorado Springs to consisting of south-west Colorado Springs, Fort Carson and Security-Widefield. Doesn't change the numbers much though.
Jefferson County:
HD22 - Kerr, J. (R) - 44%-51% (42%-53%) Formerly HD28, this formerly Ken Caryl-based district moves to the north to take in Dakota Ridge, while losing south Columbine to HD38.
HD23 - Tyler (D) - 52%-42% (54%-40%) While the Republican map made him safer, this district makes the district more competitive. It loses Golden and adds the western parts of old HD26.
HD24 - Schafer (D) - 53-41% (54%-39%) This Wheat Ridge-based district gains Golden, while losing all of it's Arvada portion, still Democratic leaning.
HD25 - Gerou (R) - 45%-50% (44%-51%) Losing everything north of I-7 and all of suburban Jeffco, this district picks up Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, which are Democratic and Park County, which is Republican. Result is a bump to the left.
HD26 - Ramirez (R) - 51%-43% (50%-43%) Formerly HD29, this was the seat that flipped control of the House to Republicans. While the Republican map tried to shore him up, Carrera went with the Democrats on this district as well, making it slightly more Democratic and highly competitive.
HD27 - Szabo (R) - 45%-49% (46%-48%) This district now consists of western Arvada and the rest of Jeffco north of I-70. Retains it's Republican lean.
HD28 - Kerr (D) V. Summers (R) - 52%-42% (n/a) With Jefferson County losing a seat, this seat combines parts of HD26 and HD22 and was drawn to pit incumbents Andy Kerr (D) and Ken Summers (R) against each other. While Republican maps took in more of Summers' turf, making registration even, Carrera's map and the Democatic maps made it more 50/50 in territory than performance, so this district has a slight Democratic lean.
Adams County:
HD29 - OPEN - 61%-32% (n/a) This is a new district in Adams County, definitely Democratic, centered on Aurora in Adams County, ti then takes in the most minority-heavy precincts in Aurora in Arapahoe County. This is a new Hispanic majority district. It is much cleaner than in the Republican version.
HD30 - Priola (R) - 44%-50% (47-45%) This district loses it's Aurora portion and gains northern Thornton, moving it from swing to pretty solid Republican. This is good though, Adams County needs at least 1 Republican seat and this is the best way it could be drawn.
HD31 - OPEN (D) - 52%-41% (47-47%) This district shrinks for population growth and is one of Carrera's "Hispanic influence" districts at 31%. This is still a major swing district, but it moves into the lean Democratic range.
HD32 - Casso (D) - 54-38% (54-38%) This seat moves from plurality-Hispanic to a Hispanic majority district and remains Democratic, the changes take in precintcts from the south and lose precincts to the north.
HD33 - OPEN (D) - 50%-44% (56%-36%) Formerly HD35, this district makes a major move away from Democrats into swing territory, becoming the Westminster in Adams County district.
HD34 - OPEN (D) - 57%-33% (52%-40%) This district takes in parts of HD32 to become majority Hispanic and more solidly Democratic, just in time to replace the homophobic John Soper.
Arapahoe County:
HD35 - Kagan (D) - 49-45% (61%-34%) Formerly HD3, this district changes dramatically. With slower growth in Denver, a seat loss was necessary, so this district drops the DU areas of Denver and picks up Sheridan, Greenwood village, and some of northern Littleton and Bowmar. Denver County was what kept this district so blue, it is now very swingy, perhaps too much for the liberal Kagan.
HD36 - Ryden (D) - 49%-44% (56%-38%) By losing precincts in the west and adding Republican precicnts to the east and south, this district becomes a tossup. This is actually more competitive than even the Republicans drew in their slicing up of Arapahoe County.
HD37 - Swalm (R) - 43%-53% (46%-50%) This district has had many incarnations in this process, the final appears to be about 1/2 of Swalm's old district and 1/2 of old HD39 (Balmer) so the major Republican stronghold in Arapahoe County.
HD38 - Conti (R) - 44%-51% (46%-49%) I'm actually surprised the additions to this district did not make it more Republican than this, losing Greenwood Village and northern Littleton, this district reaches into Centennial and then into Columbine and Ken Caryl in Jefferson County. Either way, this district is almost certainly out of reach now.
HD39 - Fields (D) - 58%-36% (61%-32%) Formerly HD42, this district is no longer a minority-heavy as before, but is still majority minority with a white plurality (40%). This is a cleaner version than Republicans proposed, but still a lot of new territory for Rhonda Fields.
HD40 - Acree (R) - 49-46% (38%-55%) This district had to shrink substantially because of the growth in this part of Aurora, but the way it shrank made a huge difference. Going from a solid Republican district, under Carrera's map this district is a pure tossup. Cindy Acree is quite popular, however, and will be hard to dislodge.
HD41 - OPEN (D) - 57%-38% (58%-37%) This district moves south, but retains it's "Denver" in Arapahoe portion, remains safe Democratic.
Douglas County:
HD42 - OPEN (R) - 33-63% (n/a) This is the new seat for Douglas County, which has had massive growth since the last census. This is basically the parts of HD45 not in Castle Rock. Safe Republican.
HD43 - McNulty (R) - 40-57% (39%-57%) Remains Highlands Ranch-based and solidly Republican.
HD44 - Holbert (R) - 36%-60% (35%-60%) Shrinks to be Parker and Lone Tree-based, still solid Republican.
HD45 - Murray (R) - 32%-63% (32%-64%) Shrinks to be centered on Castle Rock, like the rest of Douglas County, solid Republican.
Pueblo County:
HD46 - OPEN (R) - 59%-36% (62%-33%) Pueblo-based, this district takes in the red south-west parts of Pueblo County (Beulah and Rye), making HD47 more competitive than under the Republican maps.
HD47 - Swerdfeger (R) - 46%-49% (44%-51%) This district drops Fremont County (prisons) and adds most of Democratic Las Animas County and some of the City of Pueblo, bumping this district into a more competitive range. Another Hispanic influence district, this area is trending away from Democrats, but this is a bluer district than even Buffie McFayden (D) held before 2010.
Weld County:
HD48 - OPEN (R) - 34%-61% (36%-58%) This district was required to shrink because of growth, it does so by dropping the south-west portion of Weld County. It then adds smaller towns to the north, but remains east Greeley-centered and solidly Republican.
HD49 - Becker (R) - 33%-61% (n/a) This new district takes in the rest of Weld County and all of Morgan County. Solidly Republican, but considered a Hispanic influence district. Jon Becker of Fort Morgan should have no troubles here.
HD50 - Young (D) - 46%-47% (46%-47%) This district needed to expand some for population, but remains incredibly swingy and exactly the way Democrats wanted it to be. It is barely plurality white (48-47%) over Hispanic, freshman Dave Young will have a tough time, but not nearly as tough as Republicans tried for.
Larimer County:
HD51 - DelGrosso (R) - 40%-53% (40%-53%) Loveland-based, solid Republican. No change. Safe for meat head.
HD52 - OPEN (D) - 54%-41% (56%-38%) Only recently a Democratic seat, this eastern Fort Collins district should be a hold for Democrats, though not as solid as before with the loss of it's northwestern portion.
HD53 - Fischer (D) - 58%-36% (57%-38%) Western Fort Collins (CSU), solid Democratic. No change.
HD54 - Nikkel (R) - 40%-54% (41%-53%) Formerly HD49, this everything-else-in-Larimer district remains almost exactly the same with a lot of other initial changes in other maps.
Western Slope:
HD55 - Bradford (R) - 35%-57% (33%-60%) This district changes from northern Mesa County to Grand Junction north of the river, Clifton, Palisade and at least the portion of Colbran where Laura Braford lives, still solid Republican, though slightly bluer. Probably safe for crazy face.
HD56 - Scott (R) - 29%-63% (30%-62%) Formerly HD54, this district looks mostly similar to it's current incarnation, taking in everything south of HD55 and the western half of Delta County. So Republican it hurts.
HD57 - OPEN (R) - 36%-57% (39%-54%) This northwest Colorado district takes in northern Mesa County and loses Grand County, making redder and dropping it's incumbent in the process.
HD58 - Coram (R) - 32%-61% (36%-56%) This district gains much more of the red Montezuma County, while losing the liberal ski town of Telluride and Ouray County. More solidly Republican than before.
HD59 - Brown (R) - 50%-45% (46%-49%) This district was redrawn to become the resort district of southwest Colorado, taking in Telluride and Ouray and losing most of Montezuma (except Dolores). The result is a new tossup district where a Republican leaning district used to be.
HD60 - OPEN (R) - 38%-54% (39%-53%) Central mountain valleys district, loses Park County, and pulls in the rest of Fremont. Still solid Republican, unfortunately with no Tom Massey.
HD61 - Wilson (D) - 59%-35% (57%-36%) After many fights over the look of this one, it basically just shrinks it's Garfield County portion, moving it to the left. Safe Democratic.
HD62 - Vigil (D) - 56%-38% (57%-38%) This district was agreed upon in every version of the House map, majority Hispanic, it's make up is sacrosanct and it is solidly Democratic.
HD63 - Hamner (D) v. Baumgardner (R) - 52%-42% (54%-40%) Renumbered from HD56, this district loses Lake County and pulls in Grand County, moving the district to the right, still leaning Democratic (especially against Boomhauer here), but not as much as before. One of Carrera's competitive districts.
Eastern Plains:
HD64 - OPEN (D) - 31%-62% (42%-51%) With McKinley termed out and this district needing to take in more people, it is transformed to a southern eastern plains district needing to take in more people, it is transformed to a southern eastern plains district, becoming solidly Republican. It would have been a tough hold regardless.
HD65 - Sonnenberg (R) - 28%-65% (29%-65%) This district now resembles HD63, but includes much of HD65, including Jerry Sonnenberg's home. Solid Republican regardless.
So here's the totals:
Old Map
Solid D: 23 (Bennet 55%+)
Lean D: 6 (Bennet 54%-52%)
Tossups: 5 (Bennet 51%-47%)
Lean R: 9 (Bennet 46%-44%)
Solid R: 22 (Bennet 43%-)
Republican Map
Solid D: 22
Lean D: 4
Tossup: 7
Lean R: 8
Solid R: 24
Final Map
Solid D: 19
Lean D: 9
Tossup: 7
Lean R: 8
Solid R: 22
Democratic Seats (old map)
Solid D: 23
Lean D: 6
Tossup: 1
Lean R: 1
Solid R: 1
Total: 32
Needless to say, this map is a big improvement to the Republican map that brought Republicans within 1 seat of a majority just with the seats leaning their way. The final map may still look favorable to Republicans, but at our peak in the House we held all solid and leaning Democratic seats, as well as 4 of 5 tossups, 4 of 9 leaning Republican seats and 2 solid Republican seats. This definitely puts the House in play in most election years and makes it very sensitive to wave elections.
Wed Sep 28, 2011 at 9:19 PM PT: There was one mistake I found after looking at the Chieftan. Rep. Swerdeger was actually placed into the Democratic HD46 under this map. He does have the option of moving, but this would leave HD47 without an incumbent at the moment.