Space Needle, Seattle, WA
SurveyUSA for KING-TV. 9/19-22. MoE ±4.3%. Registered voters (
6/24-26 results):
Jay Inslee (D): 38 (47)
Rob McKenna (R): 44 (44)
Undecided: 18 (9)
SurveyUSA's previous poll of the Washington gubernatorial race back in June, which gave Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee a 3-point lead over Republican AG Rob McKenna, seemed a touch optimistic to me at the time. That's because—despite the general advantage that Democrats have in Washington—of the disparity in name rec between Inslee (who represents one-ninth of the state) and McKenna, who's elected statewide, has been de facto running for governor for years, and has managed to carefully maintain a "moderate" brand for himself, the only way one can win statewide as a Republican in Washington.
Today's SurveyUSA poll finds the race reverting back to the range where most pollsters have seen it (most recently Strategies360, who saw it as a 7-point race last week ... the same as SurveyUSA's first poll of the race, in April). What's a little odd, here, though, is that McKenna didn't gain any ground; he's still polling at 44. Instead, Inslee lost 9 points to the "undecided" column. That sort of fluctuation looks like the hallmark of an electorate that isn't engaged in the race yet and doesn't know much about Inslee.
One other tidbit from the crosstabs that's getting a lot of attention is that they're even at 41-41 in the Puget Sound metropolitan area. On the one hand, that's good news for Republicans, because that's by far their weakest part of the state, and it's a sign of McKenna's appeal in middle-class suburbs. On the other hand, think back to 2010, and who also got 41 percent in the 3 counties of the Puget Sound metropolis: Dino Rossi (who lost those counties 59-41 to Patty Murray, en route to a 52.4-47.6 loss overall). So, Inslee's work is cut out for him: Obviously he can't win all of those currently undecided but usually Dem-leaning suburban voters as they become more familiar with him, but if he can win a sizable majority of them, that's his path to 50%+1.