Recasting himself
as FDR might
be paying off for Romney in Florida
PPP (PDF). 9/22-25. Florida Republicans. MoE ±4.5%. (no trendline):
Mitt Romney: 30
Rick Perry: 24
Newt Gingrich: 10
Ron Paul: 8
Herman Cain: 7
Michele Bachmann: 6
Jon Huntsman: 3
Rick Santorum: 2
Gary Johnson: 1
Those numbers are pretty much unambiguously good news for Mitt Romney, and they come on the same day that Quinnipiac released numbers showing Romney slightly ahead of Perry in both Ohio and Pennsylvania (although Perry actually led Romney in a hypothetical heads up contest in Ohio).
Unless something really strange happens with the primary calendar, Florida will be by far the largest of the early states in terms of delegates. Moreover, if Perry and Romney win South Carolina and New Hampshire respectively, it will probably be seen as a "tie-breaker," so it will have intangible value as as momentum is concerned.
Perry's numbers took a hit after the debate in PPP's survey, but in Florida, Romney's Social Security attacks appear to have done some damage.
Perry was down in Florida even before the debate though and one thing that may be hurting him is his comments on Social Security. 49% of voters disagree with his 'Ponzi Scheme' comments to only 37% who agree and with the folks who dissent from that statement his deficit against Romney goes all the way up to 19 points at 35-16. It's also noteworthy that seniors are the age group where Perry faces the biggest deficit to Romney at 34-26.
Whether this is unique to Florida remains to be seen. Although this poll is more relevant than national polling—there is no national primary and Florida's an early primary state—Perry led Romney in a CNN poll of Republicans nationwide taken during the same time period.