I think most of us can agree that Dean is history. The question is whether Kerry has a clear path to the nomination or whether Edwards can keep this thing going.
It would be a shame if Kerry closed out today, because for the first time in a long time, Kerry is starting to fall in the Dem national polls. Okay, that's a bit of an overstatement -- at least one national poll shows Kerry fading.
Rasmussen tracking poll. 2/14-16. MoE 4%. (2/11-13 results).
Kerry 43 (51)
Edwards 25 (18)
Where will Dean's support go? Mine will go to Edwards, but Kerry and Dean always shared the same support base (hence the bitterness of their rivalry), so it's hard to say.
If Kerry wins decisively in Wisconsin it'll all be moot. But if it's close (and I don't know the definition of "close"), the trends may definitely favor Edwards. That's a 15-point swing in just three days.