I decided to once again have a fun time with my home state, New York. This attempt is what I think judges would do, namely:
1) Pay attention to VRA. No retrogressions unless necessary;
2) Reduce municipality splits. In other words, clean up the map;
3) Present a "least change" map;
4) Probably remove one Democrat and one Republican.
I think this map does this. As a result of the "least change" criterion, I will show each district with its old/new overlay. To see any map in its entirety, you may need to click on it and let it open up in another tab/window.
Criterion 1: VRA
First, I drew these districts. Since these control the rest of the NY metro area, it makes sense to start with these.
NY 6 (Meeks)
51.4% VAP Black, 86.0% Obama
This area has lost population. Limiting it to Queens would be a retrogression, but a panhandle into Nassau County brings this district to majority African-American.
NY 10 (Townes)
51.6% Black, 91.6% Obama
Staying in Brooklyn only, it now reaches out to Williamsburg. Now, this district truly looks like a dumbbell, but it is compact because of population density.
NY 11 (Clarke)
51.7% Black, 92.6% Obama
This just goes to Redhook and Bush Terminal. No real change.
NY 12 (Velazquez)
53.4% Hispanic, 81.4% Obama
This district gets some new territory, picking up Elmhurst, Woodside, Corona, and Jackson Heights while ceding its Manhattan and southwestern Brooklyn parts. Hispanic (although more likely by plurality) and clean (two counties, not three).
NY 15 (Rangel)
59% Hispanic, 93.7% Obama
This may be a retrogression of the African-American population, but since it has now become a majority-Hispanic district, I think it will stay. It shifts eastward into the Bronx.
NY 16 (Serrano)
56% Hispanic, 89.9% Obama
This district shifts eastward. As a result, it no longer is the district that voted the most for Barack Obama. (Let's start putting GOP funds here, right? It is trending Republican....OK, this is a joke.)
Now that we've seen the VRA districts, let look at the rest. Below is a map of the NY Metro region:
NY 1 (Bishop)
51.4% Obama
No real change.
NY 2 (Israel)
55.2% Obama
Israel withdraws from the south shore of Long Island and picks up more from the north shore.
NY 3 (King)
50.5% Obama
Because NY 6 now reaches in Nassau County, King's district covers the south shore of Long Island. THis should be an easy hold for him.
Our first victim is Carolyn McCarthy. I can't see her running against King or Meeks, so that leaves Ackerman. Let's take a look at the proposed NY 4 overlain with the old NY 4 and the old NY 5:
Old NY 4
Old NY 5
As is shown, the proposed NY 4 has more of Ackerman's voters than McCarthy's. I say that she is out. The proposed NY 4 is 55.4% Obama.
NY 7 (Crowley)
40.6% White, 65% Obama
Like the rest of the districts in the Bronx (although this is Queens-based), it shifts to the east. Crowley could be challenged here as it picks up a lot of voters from Turner and Ackerman.
NY 8 (Nadler)
85.6% Obama
Nadler gets a mostly Manhattan district, with Brooklyn Heights thrown in because that area needed to go somewhere. Those toxic Republicans in his part of Brooklyn now get packed into NY 9.
NY 9 (Turner)
52.7% McCain
When I created the VRA districts, it looks like I protected Turner and Grimm. NY 9 now stretches to pick up Borough Park (just for you, Moshe!) and Bayridge to secure the seat.
NY 13 (Grimm)
50.5% McCain
Grimm now picks up Coney Island. Still swingy, but probably an easy hold for Grimm.
NY 14 (Maloney)
81.1% Obama
Not much of a change as she shifts northward.
NY 17 (Engel)
42.1% White, 72.2% Obama
Engel loses Rockland County, being confined to Bronx and Westchester.
NY 18 (Lowey)
57.3% Obama
Lowey exchanges southern Westchester with Engel for Rockland County.
As a recap, the entire downstate region:
NY 20 (Gibson)
50.8% Obama
I think Hayworth will not be reelected since she stumbled with the FEMA part after her district was hit hard by Hurricane Irene. All politics is local. So, she's out and against Gibson, who I think retains the majority of the population in this district. This is by far the messiest district on the map.
NY 21 (Tonko)
57.4% Obama
This district justs rearranges the deck chairs. It gives up Schoharie and picks up Fulton County, exchanges districts in Rensselaer County, and picks up more of Saratoga County.
NY 22 (Hinchey)
55.1% Obama
Now four counties and Poughkeepsie, this district loses the tendril to Ithaca through Binghamton.
NY 23 (Owens)
52.2% Obama
Still the Adirondacks, it loses Madison and Oneida Counties, and half of Oswego County, but picks up the rest of the north country, Saratoga Springs, and much of Herkimer County.
NY 24 (Hanna)
50.2% Obama
Now solely a Central Leatherstocking district, it withdraws from the Finger Lakes counties.
NY 25 (Buerkle)
56% Obama
This district still should be hard for Buerkle to keep. It loses the southeastern suburbs of Syracuse but keeps Wayne County. It also picks up SUNY Oswego, which is the nut to crack. If she can win there, then I think she'll carry the district.
NY 26 (Hochul)
50.3% -Obama- McCain
This district cedes its eastern portions to Slaughter for her western parts excepting Buffalo, and picks up northern Cattauraugus County. She could still win here as her base is Erie and Niagara County.
NY 27 (Higgins)
60.3% Obama
All of Buffalo. What more needs to be said?
Now for the replacements of NY 28 and 29:
NY 5 (Slaughter) [old NY 28]
57.6% Obama
I called this NY 5 on the main map because I thought NY 4 should remain on Long Island. This is the district of "most change" because it no longer is the clothesline; instead, it is most of Monroe and all of Livingston Counties, with Bergen from Genesee thrown in. The new territory for Slaughter is southern Livingston County and parts of western Monroe County.
NY 19 (Reed) [old NY 29]
49.9 Obama, 48.6 McCain.
Reed cedes Monroe and northern Cattauraugus Counties to others but picks up the eastern Finger Lakes from Hinchey and Hanna.
As a recap, the rest of NY