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Leading Off:
• KY-Gov: After their attempts at keeping their donors secret forced all their advertising off the air, now Republican front group Restoring America is coming clean. And "front group" is definitely the right description, because it turns out that it's purely a vehicle for Terry Stephens, the father-in-law of GOP gubernatorial nominee David Williams. Stephens copped to being the only donor to RA, which has mostly run ads in the governor's race but has also spent some money on the ag commish contest as well. Thanks to this late admission, the judge which originally ordered the ads halted has reversed course and allowed them back on TV.
What makes this even more amusing is that back in June, Stephens donated $1 million to the RGA, but he had no assurances that the money would get spent on Williams' behalf. When the donation was disclosed in August, we said:
But while Dems are raising concerns about whether this massive gift also entails illegal coordination between the RGA and the Williams campaign, perhaps the better question is, why the heck didn't Stephens just run some independent expenditures directly on Williams' behalf? Instead, the RGA can now spend that money somewhere less hopeless. You just know the RGA has no interest in using that money on Williams. Hopefully this will lead to some nice recriminations a little further down the line.
And indeed, that's exactly what Stephens did! He created Restoring America so that he wouldn't have to go through the RGA—even though it seems that the RGA did in fact keep its non-promise to pass that original million-dollar gift through to Williams. So why would Stephens keep his involvement with RA so hidden? I guess he feared accusations of coordination—after all, he's the candidate's father-in-law. But once the judge blocked his ads, I guess he felt he had no choice but to emerge from the shadows. In the end, though, the best part is that, despite these huge seven-figure sums, Williams has remained in the twenties in all public polls and is almost a sure bet to lose next month. Money well spent!
Senate:
• HI-Sen: There's been a lot of chatter about this one in comments already, but in case you missed it, PPP is out with new Hawaii poll numbers, and they paint quite a different picture from their last survey in March. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.
• TX-Sen: Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is going up on the air with what I believe is the first ad of the GOP Senate race, a spot which touts his record as a "conservative businessman" and "job creator." He also obliquely dings his main opponents, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz, saying: "Would you trust a lawyer to build you a house? How about a career politician?" As for the ad itself, does anyone else feel like it's constantly jerking up and down thanks to Leppert walking forward as he speaks to the camera? Also, the background (a seemingly abandoned factory or warehouse) is a very strange choice. Anyhow, have a look for yourself:
Gubernatorial:
• MO-Gov: It's a little thin, but Aaron Blake writes that Republicans unhappy with Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's potential candidacy "expect an alternative candidate to emerge soon." GOPers have been praying for deliverance for some time now, so it remains to be seen whether there really is anyone waiting in the wings. The only possible name Blake mentions is Tea Partier Ed Martin, who is running for the open seat in MO-02 right now.
• MT-Gov: A new poll from Colorado-based Democratic pollster Keating Research (taken on behalf of Project New West and the DGA) shows Dem AG Steve Bullock narrowly leading ex-Rep. Rick Hill, 42-38. Bullock has a 31-15 favorability ratings while Hill is at just 17-19. The sample was 23% D, 32% R, and 43% I.
• WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. David Obey re-affirmed that he's definitely interested in running for governor if Scott Walker is recalled, so long as Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and retiring Sen. Herb Kohl don't do so. He's got at least one down: Kohl says he has no plans to run (and considering he decided earlier this year that he didn't want to seek re-election to the Senate, any other answer would have shocked me). Barrett, though, hasn't ruled anything out.
House:
• CA-08: Ryan McEachron, the mayor of Victorville (pop. 116K), became the latest Republican to say he plans to run for the new 8th CD if Rep. Jerry Lewis doesn't seek re-election here. (Lewis is also considering a bid for the 31st District, or could potentially retire.) San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and Assemblyman Paul Cook are both in the same holding pattern. Another GOPer, Victorville Councilwoman Angela Valles, says she may run regardless of what Lewis decides. "Minuteman" Gregg Imus, a former chief of staff to Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, is already in the race.
• CA-16: To no one's surprise, Dem Rep. Dennis Cardoza has announced that he'll retire from Congress at the end of this term. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.
• NH-01, NH-02: Approval ratings are up slightly for GOP Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass in UNH latest poll, but they still pretty much suck.
• WA-03: This is pathetic:
[Freshman GOP Rep. Jamie] Herrera Beutler told the approximately 24 people who attended her community “coffee” Monday that her office contacted “between 5,000 and 10,000 people,” inviting them to the meeting. […]
On Friday The Chronicle in Centralia received a phone call from Herrera Beutler staffer and Communications Director Casey Bowman informing the newspaper of the meeting. Bowman asked that a meeting announcement not be placed in the paper. However, he did invite the paper to cover the event.
The Chronicle refused his request and published an announcement in Saturday’s paper.
The reason for not publishing an advance notice of the meeting was the fear that people from outside the immediate area could come and “just yell” at the congresswoman “whatever’s on their minds,” Bowman said Friday.
Redistricting Roundup:
• MD Redistricting: It's a done deal: Dem Gov. Martin O'Malley signed the state's new congressional redistricting plan on Wednesday, the same day the state House passed it. It's hard to see any kind of legal challenge succeeding (unless someone can convince a court that the state is obligated to draw a third majority-minority district), and Maryland isn't subject to preclearance under the VRA, so this should be the final word.
• NV Redistricting: Kyle Trygstad offers up these performance numbers for the proposed new districts in the special masters' map:
According to preliminary past performance figures, President Barack Obama would have carried the 1st district with 65 percent, the 3rd district with 54 percent and the 4th district with 56 percent. Obama also would have slightly carried the 2nd district, but it is unlikely Democrats would strongly compete there after a convincing Amodei victory last month in a similar district.
• OH Redistricting: Dave Wasserman tweets a rumor that the GOP is proposing to stretch the new Columbus-based 3rd CD to Dayton to make a 42% black district, as an enticement to black legislators to vote for a new map. (Though as several commenters have pointed out, any attempt to do so could constitute an illegal racial gerrymander.) As we explained in the previous digest, if Republicans can get two-thirds of the state House to vote for a new plan, that will inoculate it from a referendum. (They need seven Democratic votes.) The Legislative Black Caucus held a meeting Wednesday to discuss GOP overtures, but no word yet on what, if anything, they plan to do.
My question to DKos Electioneers: What kind of heavily African-American district can you draw in the Columbus-to-Dayton region?