April and May, 2010, red shirt protesters occupy and barricade Ratchaprasong, a key intersection in the heart of the central business district. Tens of thousands of red shirts camp out there for almost two months. After weeks of clashes between police and protesters, on May 19 the Army moved in behind APCs with live ammunition, smashing the flaming barricades and forcibly evicting the red shirts, whose leaders surrendered in order to avoid further bloodshed.
At least 80 civilians and six soldiers were killed during the protests in Bangkok last year. Thousands were injured. Two shopping malls, the Stock Exchange, several banks and a couple of dozen other buildings were set on fire.
Three months ago, in July, the election which the protesters had demanded was held and the red shirts won a convincing victory at the polls. Now the new government is struggling to deal with deadly floods, the likes of which have not been seen in decades. The area of Bangkok where we live, Bang Rak, is expected to be submerged tonight or tomorrow.
There are a lot of differences between the red shirt protests in Bangkok last year and the ongoing occupations of Wall Street and other places, though both are populist movements pushing to dislodge the ruling elite. It is not my purpose here to dissect the similarities and differences, or to try to draw any lessons. I only wish to point out that peaceful protests often turn violent.
I support the peaceful protesters of the Occupy movement. I hope they can achieve a rebalancing of society to make it fairer and less cruel. I hope they can do it without anyone getting hurt. But these are forlorn hopes. My sad prediction is that, if the protests don't die out, eventually bullets will fly, blood will flow, precious lives will be lost, and property will be destroyed.
Last year, during the red shirt uprising, I was talking to my father. He said to me "These things always end in fire." I thought of those words as, several weeks later, I watched Zen Department Store burn to the ground.
So go to it, occupiers. But be aware that the time may well come when a lot of damage will be done and some of you will die for your beliefs.
From my balcony, 19 May 2010. The building on the far right is the Dusit Thani Hotel. The smoke is from barricades set on fire by the red shirts to hinder the assault by the Army.