President Obama is beginning to turn toward campaign mode and will be fully there once Republicans have a presumptive nominee. Historically, we will know who that is by the end of January. This time we might find out a little sooner since the race on the right appears to be Mitt Romney and the 7 (humorous) dwarfs. Personally, I hope it's one of the dwarfs but it's best to assume we'll get the candidate who polls best against the President and plan accordingly.
One thing that matters a lot is to define for the public how to think about the Republican candidate - and it's already happening. A look at an early attack and what it does well.
First, a refresher on how to win the messaging war:
1. If you're spending time explaining, backpedaling, or defending, then you're spending time losing (note to Herman Cain: this is why you won't win).
2. To avoid being on defense, you must be on offense.
That's really it. If you attack your opponent and they feel the need to explain themselves, you won.
Here's a nice example:
This is awesome and we need to see more of this. The ad portrays Romney as a wealthy elitist who effectively dodges taxes- pays a much lower rate than most Americans. More, by tagging this the "Romney Rule," it makes it sound like a policy he has backed and indeed enacted. In other words, during a general election campaign it almost begs for a response from Romney. Is this true!? Do you really pay only 14%? It doesn't matter what his answer is! Why? Because of rule 1 above: time spent explaining is time spent losing.
It would be easy (Rick Perry's attempt notwithstanding) to paint Romney as a flip-flopper and this should also be done. In fact, it would tempting to put all of his flip-flops into one ad, back-to-back-to-back. I think I would avoid that at first. Instead, one ad on his abortion flip-flopping which ends with (Ominous voice): Which Romney would we get in the White House? Then, another on his healthcare flip-flopping with the same ending. Etc. The benefit of rolling these out one by one is that each time it will provoke an explanation on that issue from Romney. And when you're busy explaining....well, you know. Maybe towards the end of the campaign, an omnibus flip-flopping ad would drive home the message.
Incidentally, the ad above is not from the Obama campaign but is produced by two former White House staffers. It appears the Dems are going to play by the new Citizens United rules and that is good news as well.
The Obama campaign will want to put some of its resources into positive ads as well. There are successes that need to be highlighted. Several on domestic issues and at least one on foreign policy victories.
If Romney is not the nominee the same process of defining the opponent will need to be done for Perry or Cain (please) or Gingrich (pretty please).