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11:15 AM PT: MI-Sen: Aaron Blake says that Clark Durant, who only officially launched his campaign at the end of September, raised $750K in the third quarter — and despite the abbreviated timeframe, Blake thinks that Durant has outraised his Republican rival Pete Hoekstra. Haw haw! [/nelsonmuntz]
11:45 AM PT: NY-13: The number of bona fide Democratic politicos looking at a challenge to GOP freshman Mike Grimm is reaching somewhat absurd proportions. Now comes word that NYC Councilman Vincent Gentile is considering the race, making him at least the fifth person with a political pedigree to do so. Gentile's district overlaps with the Brooklyn parts of this Staten Island-centric district, but he did represent part of S.I. when he previously served in the state Senate.
12:41 PM PT: FL-13: Former Dem state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, who served two terms in the legislature before his luck ran out with 2010's red tide, looks like he's about to launch a campaign against GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan. Ol' Vern's one of the wealthiest members of the House and this district is not exactly friendly territory for Democrats. But Buchanan's been a bit dinged up over some ethical issues (with more shoes perhaps yet to drop), and Fitzgerald may be hoping that this seat will see some improvement during redistricting. It's a tough row to hoe, but this seems like a good get for Team Blue.
12:47 PM PT: ND-AL: The surprisingly small Republican field for the open House seat just doubled in size: State Rep. Bette Grande announced today that she'd seek the GOP nomination, joining the lone candidate already in the race, Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk. At least two other legislators are still considering a run, state Sen. Tony Grindberg and state Rep. Al Carlson, though, and I'd be surprised if more people didn't get in, seeing as North Dakota hasn't had an open House seat since 1992.
12:56 PM PT: CA-10: Greg Giroux tweets that former NASA astronaut Jose Hernandez has filed paperwork with the FEC to run in California's new 10th Congressional District as a Democrat, presumably against GOP freshman Jeff Denham (who has said he's likely to seek re-election here).
1:20 PM PT: WI-Sen: Can a state Senator ever be a Some Dude? Maybe, if he's running in a field that includes a former governor, an obscenely wealthy former congressman, the Speaker of the state House, and possibly an obscenely wealthy hedge fund manager. So yeah, I'm not sure what state Sen. Frank Lassee is hoping to accomplish, but he's running for the GOP nomination regardless.
1:24 PM PT: PA-AG: This seems like a pretty major score for ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy: Ed Rendell, the former governor and DNC chair, just endorsed his bid for the Democratic nomination for state attorney general. Even if Rendell doesn't lift another finger, this ought to open some doors for Murphy. (And if he does, it should help fill his coffers, too.)
1:40 PM PT: WA-Sen: Nice try, bub. Freshman state Sen. Mike Baumgartner, who just announced a run for Senate, signed a Spokane Republican Party pledge back in 2010 that's equal parts Paulist and teabagger… and now of course he's trying to wiggle out of it. What did this pledge include?
Privatize Social Security; abolish the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; eliminate the Department of Education; withdraw from the UN; return to the gold standard; ending no-fault divorce.
Baumgartner says "I made it clear that I had some reservations" and "there was an understanding that I didn’t support everything on the pledge." Ah, no. You don't get to sign a pledge and then start editing it with some mental Track Changes. As far as I'm concerned, Baumgartner is on record supporting every one of these bits of insanity.
1:59 PM PT: AZ Redistricting: Arizona's redistricting commission just released a draft congressional map, which you can see below:
The commission's website
has more data (you want the section labeled "Congressional Map as of 10/02/11"), including a spreadsheet that details the combined Republican performance in all 2008 and 2010 statewide races. In addition, Steve Singiser has tried to place each current representative in his or her likely new district in the chart below:
AZ-01 (Gosar): 50.3%
AZ-02 (Giffords): 50.6%
AZ-03 (Grijalva): 39.8%
AZ-04 (Franks): 64.3%
AZ-05 (OPEN — Flake): 63.6%
AZ-06 (Schweikert): 59.8%
AZ-07 (Pastor): 33.4%
AZ-08 (Quayle): 61.2%
AZ-09 (NEW): 48.7%
2:09 PM PT: I should add that the commission's independent member, Colleen Mathis, voted with both Democrats to approve this map. One Republican voted no, the other abstained. Interestingly, the state Democratic Party put out a statement complaining that the map only creates three competitive districts, rather than the four they'd prefer. Meanwhile, Aaron Blake has some very different ideas about who might run where.
2:51 PM PT: So, we may have been a bit hasty in plunking Trent Franks into the new 4th CD. That district is actually a bit of a no-man's land, and Franks would almost certainly prefer the new 8th, while Ben Quayle would want the new 6th. That actually makes freshman David Schweikert the odd man out among this trio of Republicans, because the district which contains most of his current constituents is actually the brand spankin' new 9th, which was drawn to be a competitive seat, not a GOP-friendly one. Schweikert's alternative might be the new 5th, which is the inheritor to Jeff Flake's old 6th; it would be open, since Flake is running for Senate. But Schweikert would have to carpetbag in. He does currently represent a tiny slice of the new 4th, but that would be a stretch as well. Anyhow, check out our awesome population distribution chart (courtesy jeffmd and the great data provided by the redistricting commission) for more:
3:01 PM PT: One last thought (I think). While you might think Paul Gosar would be a natural fit for the 1st CD based on the numbers above, the new 4th is much more Republican. If he's a team player, he'll run in AZ-01. If he wants to look out for his future, he'll run in the 4th. That leaves Schweikert with the "fair fight" 9th or carpetbagging into the 5th. If Democrats are lucky, Gosar will go for the 4th and Schweikert the 5th, leaving us great open-seat opportunities in the 1st and 9th, plus a good bet at a hold in the new 2nd (which would be Gabby Giffords' district).
3:09 PM PT: VA-10: This is… irregular. Rep. Frank Wolf, one of only six Republican representatives who has refused to sign Grover Norquist's anti-tax pledge, took to the House floor on Tuesday to really hammer Norquist hard:
"Simply put, I believe Mr. Norquist is connected with and has profited from a number of unsavory people and groups out of the mainstream. I also believe that Mr. Norquist has used the ATR pledge as leverage to advance many other issues that many Americans would find inappropriate, and when taken as a whole should give people pause."
Wolf also brought up Norquist's ties to disgraced one-time lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Is Wolf begging for a primary challenge? Or trying to look sane for the sake of the electorate at large? He does face a stronger-than-usual opponent this cycle, in the form of General John Douglass, but he's usually dispatched Democrats with ease. So maybe he's really a true believer on this.
3:31 PM PT: UT Redistricting: Everybody, hold yer horses! The state Senate just passed the new congressional plan chosen by the redistricting committee (and favored by Senate President Michael Waddoups), but Utah looks like it could wind up being another one of those states where redistricting gets seriously bogged down despite one party controlling the trifecta. That's because the state House, at the request of Gov. Gary Herbert, has gone back to the drawing board and produced new map, ostensibly to add more rural territory to the new 4th, which originally occupied just Salt Lake and Utah Counties.
Senate Republicans have responded with this plan as a possible compromise, which makes me think that parochial concerns are really what's driving this dispute — rather than, as many have speculated, Herbert's desire to ensure that Dem Rep. Jim Matheson has a convenient district in which to seek re-election (instead of challenging Herbert for the governor's mansion).