Note: I originally wrote this diary before all the recent scandals about Hermain Cain came into the news.
Ever since this primary started, I've been fascinated by Herman Cain. Who is this guy? How did even get admitted into the first debate, let alone reach the top of the most recent republican primary polls? 538 had two very good postsanalyzing why he might have a chance, back in may when he first surged in the polls. But how did he even get that far? It doesn’t even matter whether or not he’s a good candidate, it’s simply amazing that someone could come out of no where, get enough attention to appear in the first Republican debate, and then rocket up in the polls. Thaddeus McCotter, for example, had far more experience and resources than Herman Cain to draw on, yet still most people have never even heard of him.
I believe that Herman Cain was a pawn used by the Koch Brothers to push the idea of a flat tax, and that he was never intended to do as well as he is now. He's polling too high, risking a threat to Romney's nomination, and he needs to take a dive very soon.
There always fringe candidates in presidential elections, of course, but most of them never get off the ground. The ony exceptions have been candidates like Steve Forbes and Ross Perot, who were wealthy enough to finance their own campaigns. Without prior existing support, or a vast personal fortune, it seems impossible for any candidate to even get his name recognized by primary voters. Now Hermain Cain is certainly a very wealthy man, but he’s not in the same league as those guys. The Daily Callerestimates his net worth at being between $2.9 million and $6.6 million. A nice chunk of change, sure, but it’s really not enough to fund a successful presidential campaign. For comparison, Steve Forbes, was worth a cool $430 million when he ran for president in 1996, and Ross Perot was a billionaire. Clearly, Cain was raising money from somewhere to launch his campaign.
Well, the mystery has been solved. On the October 24th episode of the Rachel Maddow Show, she revealed that most of his key campaign staff was employed by the Koch Industries political group, American for Prosperity. Thanks to our murky campaign finance laws, we’ll never know for sure, but I think it’s safe to assume that at least some of his initial seed money must have come from them too.
So that clears up one mystery- but it also gives us another one to solve. Why did the Koch brothers want to sponser a fringe presidential candidate? Why not just donate money to Romney or Perry? Well, think about what voter actually know about Herman Cain. Just one word- one number, in fact. 9-9-9.
He’s basically a one-issue candidate. He’s been pushing a flat tax (which he calls his 999 plan) hard throughout the entire campaign, and he’s basically ignored all other issues. All I can remember from his remarks on anything else are ridiculous gaffs, like when he said he wouldn’t allow Muslims in his cabinet and didn’t know what the right of return was. It’s especially strange because the president doesn’t even have the power to make tax laws- that’s Congress’s job.
I think the logical conclusion from all this is that the Koch brothers sponsored his campaign in order to push a flat tax. If his tax plan actually became law, they would save an enormous amount of money. There’s no other reason why they would generously support such a fringe candidate.
This is veering into conspiracy theory territory, but I’m going to speculate a bit further.
This month, Herman Cain has surged to the top of GOP primary polls, including a lead in the early states of Iowa, and South Carolina, and a whopping 15 point lead in Ohio. There are many reasons to question the accuracy of these polls, but if I take them at face value then it seems that Herman Cain is actually the front runner for the Republican nomination for president. He really might win it all- mostly because all the other candidates are laughably weak.
Assuming I’m right that he was sponsored by the Koch brothers to push a proposal for a flat tax, how would they react to such news? Not well, I’ll bet. Herman Cain was never supposed to win the nomination, only to insure that the Overton Window was shifted to include a flat tax. With Herman Cain in the limelight, he’s being scrutinized much closer, and the Koch connections to him are being discovered. And they want Romney to win, since he’s the only Republican candidate with a chance to beat Obama in the general election.
There have been two very strange pieces of news recently for Herman Cain. One was that he will engage Newt Gingrich in a series of 1 on 1 long-form debates. Gingrich is highly experienced and knowledgeable, while Cain is… not. Challenging Gingrich to 1 on 1 debates like that is a terrible strategy for Cain. The other strange news was his fumble on abortion recently- did he really not prepare an answer to a simple question about his views on abortion? It’s such an easy question that there’s really no excuse for him to fumble it that badly.
My theory is that Herman Cain is taking a dive.
He’s already accomplished his purpose for the Koch brothers- everyone who follows politics knows what the 999 plan is, and Rick Perry recently announced his own flat tax plan. The Overton Window has been shifted. At the same time, his sudden high profile is drawing unwanted attention to his background, and it would be a disaster for Republicans if he actually won the nomination. The New Hampshire primary might be held at the beginning of Decemberthis year. They need him to go down, and fast.
If I’m right, Herman Cain will completely self-destruct in the next month. He needs to go down before the New Hampshire primary or Iowa caucus, whichever happens first. We’ll see more fumbles on softball questions, he’ll be crushed in his debates with Newt Gingrich, and he’ll produce more hilariously bad campaign ads like this one (an endorsement from your chief of staff? Really? Are you courting the smoker demographic?). Romney will adopt a flat tax as part of his platform, and then go on to sweep the nomination. And the Koch brothers will laugh all the way to the bank.