Like Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 campaign, Mitt Romney leads nationally among Republicans ... but most Republicans still want somebody else (Randy Miramontez/Dreamstime.com and Larry Downing/Reuters)
ABC News/Washington Post. 10/31-11/3. Republican primary voters. MoE ±5.5 (7/17, 9/1, 10/2, 11/3):
So Mitt Romney's still in the lead, but for a guy who supposedly has a mortal lock on the GOP nomination, he's hardly in a commanding position. To see what I mean, take a look at how Mitt Romney is doing relative to the total support of his named opponents and those who are still sitting on the fence:
So while the good news for Romney is that he's had more support than any of his individual opponents in 3 of the 4 polls in the chart, the bad news is that nearly two-thirds of the GOP primary electorate wants somebody else.
It would be tempting to compare Romney to McCain in 2008, but actually the better comparison may be Rudy Giuliani, who, like Romney, held a lead in national polling, yet faced a large segment of the GOP primary electorate that wanted a different candidate:
Unlike in 2007, in 2011, "somebody else" isn't steadily increasing poll after poll. That being said, there's already more Republicans indicating a preference for "somebody else" other than Romney than there were in 2007 indicating a preference for somebody other than Giuliani.
You could argue that Romney is still in better shape than Giuliani because he faces a weaker field and he's got more experience as a national politician. And with his leading opponents being the doltish governor of Texas, a career lobbyist and pizza salesman accused of sexual harassment, and a former Speaker who was forced to resign amidst an ethics and sex scandal, Romney really should be in better shape. But he keeps on running into a big problem: Republican primary voters.