One of the most interesting ideas for congressional maps are community of interest maps. I posted a map awhile back of a massive Democratic gerrymander of Texas, now I just want to have a community of interest map. Due to the time involved with preparing a state with as many districts as Texas I decided just to post DFW to see if anyone has interest in seeing the rest of the state.
Keep in mind this is a community of interest map. However when going over the map with very discerning eyes one can see this is a community of interest map which is slightly drawn in favor of the Democrats.
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area is composed of around a dozen counties, however because many of them are very rural I am only concentrating on what I call the four "core" counties where the overwhelming majority of the population is; Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton.
I am not including a PVI rating this time because I feel that can overly-simplify how districts may be viewed
District 30
South Dallas, DeSoto, Duncanville, Balch Springs, Cockrell Hill and part of Mesquite
Population (Age 18+)
White: 19.5%
Black: 39.5%
Hispanic: 38.7%
Asian: 1.1%
Election Results
Obama: 78.0%
McCain 22.0%
Dem: 73.9%
GOP: 26.1%
Safe D here. This is simply a more compact version of the currently existing District 30 and is essentially a Democratic vote sink. Although the community just happens to be very Democratic
District 32
This district is entirely Dallas proper plus part of Mesquite along with the very conservative very wealthy enclaves of University Park and Highland Park
Population (Age 18+)
White: 45.5%
Black: 16.8%
Hispanic: 32.8%
Asian: 3.5%
Election Results
Obama: 54.6%
McCain 45.4%
Dem: 48.8%
GOP: 51.2%
If you can't tell based on the picture this district borders district 30 just south of downtown Dallas. Despite the strong Obama numbers and the fact that Dallas has been trending towards the Democrats any Democratic nominee here would get slammed with big money from University Park, Highland Park and wealthy parts of North Dallas. However like all the districts presented here this one is becoming less white. Toss-Up bordering on lean D
District 5
These are the innermost suburbs of North Dallas including Garland, Addison, Farmers Branch and part of Richardson, Irving, and a small part of north Dallas proper.
Population (Age 18+)
White: 51.0%
Black: 10.4%
Hispanic: 26.5%
Asian: 10.5%
Election Results
Obama: 43.3%
McCain 56.7%
Dem: 36.0%
GOP: 64.0%
This district would be poised to be <50% white VAP by the end of the decade. However it is still Texas suburbs and would likely remain a Safe R seat.
District 24
These are the mid-cities, for those unfamiliar with DFW these are the cities that are between Fort Worth and Dallas. Arlington and Grand Prairie comprise the overwhelming majority of the population here with the remainder being from Cedar Hill in the south and Irving in the north
Population (Age 18+)
White: 42.5%
Black: 19.2%
Hispanic: 29.2%
Asian: 7.3%
Election Results
Obama: 51.7%
McCain 48.3%
Dem: 46.2%
GOP: 53.8%
This is another toss-up district. I could easily see this district changing back and forth every, however the demographic changes are very important. Like the entire area this area has a fast growing Hispanic population. Like district 32 this is a toss-up district that could become a lean D by the end of the decade.
District 12
This is my favorite district because this district is almost entirely Fort Worth proper. It does include a little bit of Euless in the east to bring the population up because the north part of Fort Worth has city limits which don't match up to the voting district lines. However this is a Fort Worth district.
Population (Age 18+)
White: 42.4%
Black: 20.0%
Hispanic: 31.8%
Asian: 4.3%
Election Results
Obama: 57.2%
McCain: 42.8%
Dem: 52.5%
GOP: 47.5%
One note of interest is how similar the demographics are to district 24. Tarrant County is a conservative county, however the overwhelming number of Democratic voters in this county do live in Fort Worth. This is a likely D seat
District 6
Fort Worth suburbs are this one. The very conservative suburbs of Richland Hills, North Richland Hills, Colleyville, Keller, Southlake and others comprise this district
Population (Age 18+)
White: 74.8%
Black: 5.3%
Hispanic: 14.2%
Asian: 4.0%
Election Results
Obama: 32.2%
McCain: 67.8%
Dem: 28.3%
GOP: 71.7%
Just as district 30 is a Dallas County Dem vote sink this is a Tarrant County GOP vote sink. Although it is a community of interest district it just happens to be a very conservative community. Also this is the Whitest district of all the DFW districts
District 26
Almost all of Denton County plus part of Collin county.
Population (Age 18+)
White: 67.7%
Black: 8.2%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 6.3%
Election Results
Obama: 37.4%
McCain: 62.6%
Dem: 30.2%
GOP: 62.6%
Safe R, not much to say about this one it is straight forward
District 3
The far north Dallas suburbs make a very nice looking compact district. Plano, Frisco, Allen and McKinney.
Population (Age 18+)
White: 64.9%
Black: 8.1%
Hispanic: 12.8%
Asian: 12.1%
Election Results
Obama: 38.0%
McCain: 62.0%
Dem: 29.0%
GOP: 71.0%
Safe R. Interesting note is this district is the most Asian in DFW
Two extreme scenarios
1. The Democrats dominate; they gain more power and expand their base. Under this scenario of the 8 seats could lead to a 4 D-4 R split. With the split being almost entirely urban vs suburban
2. The progress Democrats have made here collapses, the GOP grows again. Under this scenario we are back to a status-quo 1 D-7 R. However the Fort Worth proper district could still potentially elect a Democrat