Newt Gingrich is the GOP's clown du jour (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg. November 10-12. Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. ±4.4%. No trends.
Herman Cain: 20
Ron Paul: 19
Mitt Romney: 18
Newt Gingrich: 17
Rick Perry: 7
Michele Bachmann: 5
Rick Santorum: 3
Jon Huntsman: 1
Not sure: 10
Selzer & Co. is the same firm that conducts the famous Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. Their last poll was conducted late last month, between October 23 and 26. The results:
Herman Cain: 23
Mitt Romney: 22
Ron Paul: 12
Newt Gingrich: 7
Michele Bachmann: 8
Rick Perry: 7
Rick Santorum: 5
Jon Huntsman: 1
Given that the two polls are of the same race with the same field and come from the same firm, it's probably reasonable to compare the trends between the two. The big things the leap out, obviously, are surges from both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, and drops from both Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Here's how the changes stack up:
Newt Gingrich: +10
Ron Paul: +7
Jon Huntsman: no change
Rick Perry: no change
Rick Santorum: -2
Michele Bachmann: -3
Herman Cain: -3
Mitt Romney: -4
Gingrich and Paul are obviously right to be thrilled with these numbers, but if I were Cain, I'd be happy to only be down three points after having an abysmal two weeks on the campaign trail. Huntsman didn't lose ground, but only because he had no ground to lose. Perry can at least take solace that the bleeding may have stopped and that he's now where Gingrich was two weeks ago. Santorum and Bachmann are still in search of a miracle.
Romney's campaign will no doubt console themselves with the fact that Willard is still one of the top four candidates, but for him to drop four points as campaigns around him explode like Spinal Tap drummers is embarrassing. He's the frontrunner that nobody likes.
Aside from the individual horserace numbers, the other thing that these numbers tell me is that television and national media are playing a bigger role in Iowa than retail campaigning. According to Politico's Iowa campaign calendar, Newt Gingrich didn't have any events in Iowa between the two polls, yet he gained the most ground. Ron Paul was there on three days, but Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum each spent more time in the state than all of the other candidates combined, and they both lost ground. Mitt Romney made one appearance, and he too faltered. Maybe retail politics will play a bigger role down the stretch, but for now, it seems like a non-factor.