Pennsylvania is quickly becoming a must-watch state
Looking ahead to the 2012 elections, one of the burning questions has been what will become of the key large states of the industrial Midwest. Ohio and Pennsylvania were central not only to the Obama election in 2008, but the Democratic surge to control of Congress in 2006 and 2008. Conversely, the states were an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats in 2010, with the Democrats losing both gubernatorial elections, both Senate seats and nearly a dozen House seats between the two states.
New data out this week from our polling partners at PPP suggested that Pennsylvania is not as red as it appeared one year ago, but is a far cry from the blue-tinted swing state that it was in the two cycles prior to that.
Public Policy Polling. 11/17-20. Pennsylvania voters. MoE 4.4% (July numbers in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 45 (44)
Mitt Romney (R) 45 (44)
Barack Obama (D) 46 (--)
Ron Paul (R) 42 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 47 (50)
Rick Santorum (R) 42 (40)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Newt Gingrich (R) 43 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 51 (--)
Rick Perry (R) 38 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 53 (49)
Herman Cain (R) 35 (37)
The numbers were little changed from the summer, though the cast of characters on the GOP side sure has. It is amusing to note that Perry, Paul and Gingrich were not tested in PPP's July polling in Pennsylvania. It is more amusing to note that the three that were tested then were Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin. My, how times change.
What has not changed, however, is the coinflip outcome when Barack Obama is paired with Mitt Romney. It is as true in Pennsylvania as it is across America. And, as PPP's Tom Jensen pointed out, this particular coinflip might be with a coin that is weighted for the Republicans:
Obama and Romney are tied at 45% each but if you dig in on the undecided voters only 24% of them approve of Obama's job performance to 70% who disapprove. They may not be completely sold on Romney yet but for the most part if you don't approve of the incumbent President, you're not going to vote for him. If those folks really had to make a decision today it's likely they'd move in Romney's direction and hand him the state.
Fortunately for the president and Democratic supporters, the GOP seems extraordinarily intent on nominating someone ... anyone ... other than Mitt Romney. The latest data point to buttress that argument came from PPP's primary polling in the Keystone State, which showed Mitt Romney in a very distant tie for third place.
Public Policy Polling. 11/17-20. Republican voters. MoE 4.9% (July numbers in parentheses)
Newt Gingrich: 32 (6)
Herman Cain: 15 (10)
Rick Santorum: 12 (14)
Mitt Romney: 12 (17)
Ron Paul: 9 (9)
Michele Bachmann: 5 (24)
Rick Perry: 3 (8)
Jon Huntsman: 3 (3)
Gary Johnson: 0 (-)
Despite still holding his own in a general election setting, and despite every presumptive conservative "anti-Mitt" having at least one awe-inspiring campaign implosion, Romney actually performed worse in the most recent PPP poll here than he did over the summer. Note that while Herman Cain has become the least electable Republican in a general election trial heat, he still fared reasonably well in the primary setting. If he has raised a fraction of the cash that he claims to have raised since his scandals have come to light, he may not be politically dead yet on the GOP side.