Oregon: Still a blue state for 2012, says SUSA
Barack Obama's landslide 17-point win in Oregon in 2008 belies the competitiveness of this northwestern state. Democrats barely held onto the governor's mansion here just last year, even with popular former Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber leading the way. Plus, John Kerry only won here by a 51-47 margin in 2004, while Al Gore won by less than a point in 2000.
New data from SurveyUSA, however, paints a picture of a state which has quite a ways to go before it can be deemed as "competitive." Even with job approval ratings in the mid-40s, and national trial heats with GOPer Mitt Romney in a perpetual coinflip, Oregon looks quite secure for team Obama.
SurveyUSA. 11/18-21. Registered voters. MoE 4.4%. No trendlines.
Barack Obama (D): 48
Mitt Romney (R): 40
Barack Obama (D): 51
Newt Gingrich (R): 37
As has been the case just about everywhere, the story here is not whether or not voters are in love with the president. The story is that both of the leading Republicans are unpopular to the point of being damned close to being reviled.
Mitt Romney is cruising around the state of Oregon with a net negative of 20 points on his favorability (21/41). In a sign that all may not be well for the Mitt-ster when it comes primary time, his favorability spread among Republicans is only a plus-10 (35/25).
Meanwhile, Professor Gingrich does better among his base (although, at 40/24, it is hard to call him "popular" among Republicans), but does horrifically among independent and Democratic voters. Gingrich is at 70 percent disapproval among Democrats, and sports a putrid 16/52 spread among indies.
In a demographic point that, if replicated nationwide, could kill Romney's bid, Gingrich is a winner in the eyes of the teabagger set. Tea party devotees (alas, only 7 percent of the Oregon electorate) hold Newt in high regard (60/16 fav/unfav), while being considerably more equivocal about Romney (41/24 fav/unfav).
Now obviously, with teabaggers making up such a small percentage of the sample, the margin of error here is enormous. But it is not like this data point hasn't been apparent elsewhere. And it is why it is probably still a big mistake to presume that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee when all is said and done.