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Leading Off:
• TX Redistricting: On the night before Thanksgiving, we celebrated… Redistmas! On Wednesday, the San Antonio court hearing the main Texas redistricting case just published its draft interim congressional map, and it's unambiguously good news for Democrats. You can find our complete analysis at the link, and a copy is below (though you'll also want to click here for a detailed, zoomable version):
One other link you'll definitely want to explore is
this spreadsheet which contains Obama-McCain numbers for the new map, for the map the legislature passed earlier this year, and for the current (32-seat) map. In a nutshell, Democrats are heavily favored to pick up two seats (Blake Farenthold's 27th and the new 33rd) and are likely to pick up a third (the new 35th). A fourth (Quico Canseco's 23rd) is probably a tossup at worst, while two more seats are theoretically competitive (Joe Barton's 6th and Mike McCaul's 10th).
And there's been a bunch of early fallout from the new map:
• This report from PoliTex on the instantly-hot race for the new 33rd confirms that two Democrats are already in: state Rep. Marc Veasey and Fort Worth Councilwoman Kathleen Hicks. One of Hicks' fellow councilmembers, Sal Espino, says he's thinking about it, while a third councilman, Joel Burns, announced he wouldn't run and endorsed Veasey. PoliTex also suggests that other names may yet surface.
• Farenthold's home has actually been moved into the new 34th, and a spokesman says he's "taking a close look" at the district. Given how blue the 27th (his current district) has been made, it seems like a given that he'd switch over to the 34th—though it's a very GOP-friendly district and it will almost certainly attract other contenders in the primary.
• And finally, the brewing battle between Rep. Lloyd Doggett and state Rep. Joaquin Castro in the TX-35 Democratic primary looks like it will soon be a thing of the past. Under the new map, Doggett has every reason to return to the 25th CD (his current district), while the new 35th (which is 56% Hispanic) looks like a good fit for Castro.
A couple of other links you'll want to check out include Charles Kuffner's analysis, in which he slots each district into the usual Safe/Likely/Lean categories (but doesn't identify any true Tossups, because he's a bit more bullish about the redrawn 23rd than we are). We've also compiled election results for every statewide race in 2008 and 2010 according to the new districts in this spreadsheet. Rest assured, the craziness has only just begun. And these maps are not yet final—the court is entertaining objections from the parties and will make a ruling soon, so things could very well change in the near future. Daily Kos Elections will be following the situation closely, so be sure to check back in with us.
Gubernatorial:
• WI-Gov: More loser-talk from Scott Walker in his second recall-themed ad. It once again features a woman speaking somewhat awkwardly in front of a jet-blue background (but not Walker himself this time), saying "It’s not about being popular, you know, it’s not about getting the votes." She also thinks the recall "feels a little like sour grapes." (Also, she says she's "only speaking from the eye"—is that a phrase?) And check out the weird shrugging gesture at the very end:
House:
• IL-16: Not that I thought he was likely to retire quietly, but just in case he was on anyone's watch list, veteran GOP Rep. Don Manzullo just kicked off his re-election campaign in the re-drawn 16th CD. It looks like this will set up a Republican primary battle with fellow Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who said back in September that he'd run "in the district that represents Grundy County." (That would be the 16th.) But Kinzinger's been hard to pin down: Right after the new map came out, he said he'd run in the 16th, then backed off, then started using this weird Grundy County-specific language, so it's a bit hard to say exactly what his intentions are. The Illinois filing deadline is very soon, though, so we'll find out shortly.
• NC-07: I've gotta believe that Ilario Pantano's new 60-second ad hammering Republican primary opponent David Rouzer for allegedly supporting "amnesty" for illegal immigrants is little more than a video press release. I say that because Pantano, who was the 2010 nominee for this seat, only raised $65K in the third quarter, so where's he gonna get the money to run a real ad campaign, especially this early? Jessica Taylor (previously of The Hotline, now at the Rothenberg Political Report) mentions one related detail that we missed last month: Pantano put out an internal poll (PDF) from Conquest Communications Group showing him with a 43-20 lead over Rouzer. (Oddly, Rouzer's name is misspelled, and Pantano also sat on the survey for more than a month before releasing it, meaning it's almost three months old now.)
• NY-13: Another name is being thrown about as a possible Democratic challenger to freshman GOPer Mike Grimm: telecom exec Stephen Yodice. For all we know, he could be rich ("president and chief executive of Syoptics Networks"), but as Colin Campbell notes, not a lot out there on this guy in terms of having a public profile. (No, LinkedIn doesn't count.)
• OH-01/02: Major bummer: Democratic state Rep. Connie Pillich, who had been gearing up for a congressional run, says she will instead seek re-election to the legislature. Pillich never made clear whether she planned to challenge Steve Chabot in the 1st or Jean Schmidt in the 2nd, but I always figured the former made much more sense, since Pillich lives in the 1st and it's also a friendlier district. But alas, it's not to be.
Other Races:
• OH HB194: It looks like the group trying to put Ohio's restrictive new election law on the ballot for possible repeal will indeed succeed. Fair Elections Ohio originally came about 10,000 signature short, but they just filed an additional 166,000, all but guaranteeing that the referendum will go forward. Joe Vardon of the Columbus Dispatch summarizes some of the objectionable provisions of the legislation, known as HB194:
• A reduction in early voting from 35 days before an election to 21 days by mail and 17 in person. The bill also would prohibit in-person voting on Saturday afternoons, Sundays and the three days before the election.
• A prohibition on counties such as Franklin from sending unsolicited absentee-ballot applications to all voters.
• Requirements regarding whether a poll worker has to tell a voter that he or she is in the wrong precinct.
• New standards for when a vote should be tossed out, such as when a person puts the wrong birth date on an absentee-ballot envelope.
• WI Recall: Republicans have filed suit asking the state Supreme Court to rule that any state Senate recalls next year be held under the new maps passed by the GOP-held legislature this summer. Meanwhile, Democrats are asking a three-judge federal panel to rule the exact opposite—i.e., that recalls should be conducted using the old maps. A plain reading of the legislation instituting the new maps says that Democrats are right, and Republicans, clearly worried, even tried to pass a quick fix. But they were derailed by one of their own members, state Sen. Dale Schultz, who said: "I believe the people who voted for me are the ones who should be properly sitting in judgment if a recall comes."
Grab Bag:
• Ads: Reid Wilson has an interesting look at the levels of political ad-buying saturation in several key media markets, particularly those in swing states which also feature competitive Senate contests. He also has some cool maps from Nielsen.
Redistricting Roundup:
• CT Redistricting: It seems like everything in this Redistricting Roundup is all about scheduling. Connecticut's panel of legislators is supposed to finish up its work on Nov. 30. However, Gov. Dan Malloy is worried that they might not (the original deadline was in September), saying it would be a "gigantic failure" if they can't get things done by the end of the month. What's not clear to me, though, is precisely why Malloy has started grumbling about this.
• MS Redistricting: Texas isn't the only state getting a new court-drawn map: Mississippi is about to get one, too—at least, according to a three-judge panel which says it intends to step in shortly. I'm sort of surprised at this development, seeing as Republicans just won the state House earlier this month, giving them control of the complete redistricting trifecta, so you'd think coming up with a new plan would be smooth sailing. But time is running short, since the candidate filing deadline is Jan. 13. That doesn't leave the court very much time, but it's more than the legislature has, since they aren't back in session until Jan. 3.
• KS Redistricting: In case you were dying to see what Kansas's new maps looked like, you'll have to wait a little longer. Or rather, a lot longer: A Republican legislator says he doesn't expect a vote until May 10, 2012.
• RI Redistricting: But have no fear! We'll be getting at least one more new map soon. (What, Texas wasn't enough for you?) The redistricting panel in mighty Rhode Island will release its congressional proposal on Monday. (Legislative plans came out earlier this week.) But with just two districts, a very small deviation, and a solidly blue populace, this one won't be generating much buzz.